Understanding the market potential of a new product or service is critical to success and requires forecasting sales. It also means understanding who the early adopters will be, media usage of potential acquirers and other characteristics of market participants. Harris Interactive provides you with the tools you need to develop this understanding.
For early stage forecasting, we typically use simple methods such as projections from purchase intent scales or simple stochastic models that take into account the levels of awareness and availability (distribution) over time. The information needed to generate these forecasts can be included in concept screening or testing projects and require few marketing plan inputs.
Our approach to late stage forecasting, offered in partnership with Top Box Associates, is based on the classic Fourt-Woodlock approach. It takes into account both trial and repeat volume. Forecasting estimates can be refined by taking into account your marketing plan as well as the potential impact of word-of-mouth (WOM).
Often the analysis of potential involves finding the optimal combination of products to offer in a market. When you face such Line Optimization issues, Harris Interactive can support you with traditional TURF/Shapley analyses as well as Occasion based optimization. We also employ Discrete Choice Modeling and other choice methods to help you optimize your offerings - taking into account factors such as price and feature configurations.
Our analyses of potential provide you with insights necessary to manage your introduction:
- Who will try the product/offering?
- Who will repurchase and at what rate?
- Which varieties (e.g., sizes, types, flavors) of your products will provide what volume?
Beyond these traditional metrics, we use a variety of brand equity and choice modeling tools to help you assess your products’ strengths and weaknesses in the marketplace. These diagnostic tools help you identify specific actions you can take to maximize:
- Alignment between what your product does and what customers expect it to do
- Customer assessments of the product, particularly their emotional connection to it
- Influencer assessments of the product
- Your strengths vis-à-vis your competitors