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Americans Lack Confidence in US Afghanistan Policy

Three in Five Give President Bush Negative Ratings on Handling Afghanistan

ROCHESTER, N.Y. – September 4, 2008 ― While Americans may see improvement in Iraq, attitudes toward the situation in Afghanistan are spiraling downward, according to a new Harris Poll of 2,710 adults surveyed online between August 11 and 17, 2008 by Harris Interactive®. Specifically:

  • One in ten Americans (11%) say the situation in Afghanistan is getting better while 37 percent believe it is getting worse. Just over one-third (35%) believe there is no real change. In May of last year, just one-quarter (26%) said the situation was getting worse while 36 percent said there was no real change and 12 percent of Americans believed it was getting better.
  • Over half of Americans (54%) are not confident that U.S. policies in Afghanistan will be successful while 17 percent are confident and three in ten (29%) are not sure. In May of 2007, four in ten (41%) Americans said they were not confident while just over two in ten (22%) said they were.
  • Almost three in ten Americans (28%) say the situation is getting worse while just 13 percent say it is getting better and two in five (40%) say it is the same for U.S. troops. This is a large change from May of last year when just nine percent said the situation was getting worse and over one-third of Americans (36%) said it was getting better.
  • One-quarter of Americans (25%) say President Bush is doing an excellent or pretty good job on handling the situation in Afghanistan while three in five (62%) say he is doing an only fair or poor job. These numbers are almost identical to the ones from May of 2007 when one-quarter (26%) gave President Bush a positive rating and three in five (63%) gave him a negative one.

So What?

According to Regina A. Corso, Director of The Harris Poll, "What is striking about these three questions on the situation in Afghanistan is the high number of "not sure" responses. One in five (18%) of adults are not sure if the situation in Afghanistan is getting better or worse. Three in ten Americans (29%) are not sure if U.S. policies in Afghanistan will be successful. Further, one in five (20%) adults is not sure if the situation for U.S. troops is better, worse or the same when compared to Iraq.

This demonstrates that while Iraq dominates media coverage, and therefore the attention of Americans, Afghanistan has been pushed to the back of the mind for many. As the fighting in Afghanistan worsens and the situation becomes more dangerous for U.S. troops, the media will most likely pay attention again and then, hopefully, so will more Americans."

TABLE 1

RATING OF PRESIDENT BUSH ON AFGHANISTAN

"Overall, how would you rate the job that President Bush has done in handling Afghanistan over the last several months?"

Base: All Adults

Excellent

Pretty Good

Only Fair

Poor

Not Sure

Positive*

Negative**

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

August, 2008

4

21

26

36

13

25

62

May, 2007

6

19

23

39

12

26

63

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

* Positive = excellent or pretty good. ** Negative = only fair or poor

TABLE 2

SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN – GETTING BETTER OR WORSE

"Do you think that the situation in Afghanistan is…?"

Base: All Adults

July 2005

May 2007

August 2008

%

%

%

Getting better

17

12

11

Getting worse

30

26

37

No real change

37

36

35

Not sure

16

26

18

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 3

CONFIDENCE IN SUCCESS?

"How confident are you that U.S. policies in Afghanistan will be successful?"

Base: All Adults

 

July 2005

May 2007

August 2008

%

%

%

Confident

25

22

17

Not confident

45

41

54

Not sure

30

37

29

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 4

COMPARISON WITH IRAQ

"Compared to Iraq, do you think the situation in Afghanistan is…?"

Base: All Adults

 

May 2007

August 2008

%

%

Better for U.S. troops

36

13

Same for U.S. troops

34

40

Worse for U.S. troops

9

28

Not sure

21

20

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

Methodology

This Harris Poll® was conducted online within the United States between August 11and 14, 2008 among 2,710 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

J34911

Q645, 650, 655, 660


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