THE HARRIS POLL #33, June 25, 1998

Public perceptions of the political leadership in Washington, including the president, main leaders and both parties have declined in the latest Harris Poll. The ratings of President Clinton, Speaker Newt Gingrich, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott and of congressional Democrats and Republicans have fallen since May to their lowest points since January or earlier. The numbers suggest that some of the "feel good" euphoria generated by the strong economy, which lifted the ratings of leaders and parties earlier this year, has diminished.

These are the results of a new Harris Poll of 1,000 adults surveyed between June 17 and 22, 1998.

President Clinton’s rating is still strongly positive (58% positive, 40% negative) but this is down from 64% positive, 35% negative in April and 62% positive, 36% negative in May. His new numbers are actually his worst this year.

House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s ratings (now 28% positive, 64% negative) which had improved somewhat earlier this year slipped back to the very low levels of last year. Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott continues to get a low positive rating (29%), his lowest score since January, and is still an unknown quantity to many people; fully 33% have no opinion about him.

The biggest drop is for the Congress. Congressional Democrats’ ratings (41%-53%) are down sharply from 47%-48% in May. Congressional Republicans have fallen as sharply, from 37%-57% to 31%-62%, and, of course, they started at a lower level.

Vice President Gore, who has not been rated on a regular basis gets a 47% positive, 48% negative score, well below the president but above Gingrich and Lott.

Until now the Harris Poll data have suggested that the public was in no mood to throw out many incumbents -- which implied continued Republican control of the Congress in the November elections. If these new numbers turn out to be the beginning of a downward trend (and, of course, the poll does not predict that) then incumbents, and continued Republican control of the Congress, may be at greater risk.

"How would you rate the overall job President Clinton is doing as president -- excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

NOTE: For September, October and November of 1996, numbers based on likely voters. All others based on all adults.

"How would you rate the overall job Vice-President Gore is doing as Vice-President -- excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.

"And how do you rate the job (READ EACH ITEM) is/are doing -- excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

*Positive = Excellent plus pretty good.
**Negative = Only fair plus poor.

This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between June 17 to 22, among a nationwide cross section of 1,000 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is difficult or impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

818450

Q120, 125, 130