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THE HARRIS POLL #45, September 12,
2001
Large
Majority Of Public Now Believes In Global Warming And Supports International
Agreements To Limit Greenhouse Gases
However,
reactions to U.S. opposition to international agreements polarized by party.
______________________________________
by Humphrey Taylor
While most
people believe the theory of global warming, and most people who have heard of
the international agreements in Kyoto and Bonn to limit emissions of greenhouse
gases approve of them, only a modest 46% to 42% plurality thinks the U.S.
government was wrong not to accept them. The reason for this apparent paradox:
most Republicans, by 64% to 22% believe the administration is right – that the
agreements are not based on sound research and would damage the U.S. economy. At
the same time – compounding the paradox – a modest 54% to 40% majority of
Republicans say they approve of these international agreements.
These are
the results of The Harris Poll, a nationwide telephone survey of
1,017 adults between August 15 and August 22, 2001.
The main
findings of this survey are:
- The great majority of the
public (88%) says they have heard about the theory of global warming and (by
75% to 19%) most of these people believe it. However, the 61% majority of
Republicans who believe it is well below the 88% of Democrats and 74% of
Independents who believe it.
- Almost three out of five
adults (58%) who have heard of global warming have seen, read or heard about
the international agreements at Kyoto and Bonn to limit the emissions of
greenhouse gases. The more educated people are, the more likely they are to
have heard about these agreements.
- Of those who have heard
about the Kyoto and Bonn agreements, a better than 3-to-1 majority (70% to
22%) approve of them. However, among Republicans only a much more modest 54%
to 40% approve of them, compared to the great majorities of Democrats (86%
to 6%) and Independents (74% to 19%) who do so.
- Attitudes toward the
administration's non-acceptance of the Kyoto and Bonn agreements, among
those who have heard about them, are heavily polarized by party. Most
Democrats (by 66% to 25%) and Independents (by 52>
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52 |
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Not sure/
refused |
11 |
15 |
9 |
9 |
Methodology
This issue of The Harris
Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between August
15-22, 2001, among a nationwide cross section of 1,017 adults. Figures for age,
sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in
the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual
proportions in the population.
In theory,
with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty
that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage
points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with
complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of
error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical
calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed
(non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting
by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is
difficult or impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these
factors.
These statements conform to
the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
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