Harris Interactive | The Harris Poll - Big Increases in Confidence in Military Leaders, the White House and the Federal Government Lift ''Harris Interactive Confidence Index'' to Highest Level Since 1973

THE HARRIS POLL^® #6, January 30, 2002

Big Increases in Confidence in Military Leaders, the White House and the Federal Government Lift "Harris Interactive Confidence Index" to Highest Level Since 1973

Index rises to 65 for first time since Watergate and Vietnam War
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by Humphrey Taylor

Americans feel better about their leaders than they have for a very long time. Every year at this time, The Harris Poll^® measures the confidence that the American people have in the leaders of fourteen institutions, and computes the Harris Interactive Confidence Index based on all the replies. This year the Confidence Index has surged to 65, compared to 55 last year, 60 in 1999 and only 42 in 1997. This is the highest level of confidence we have found in the twenty-nine years since 1973 when the Index stood at 69. Indeed, this is only the second time since Harris Interactive first asked these questions in 1966 (when the Index stood at 100) that the Index has been higher than 64. However, these questions were not asked between 1966 and 1971, five years which saw a huge drop in confidence from the high level of 1966.

These are the results of a Harris Interactive^SMsurvey of 1,011 adults surveyed by telephone between January 16–21, 2002.

The large increase in the Index this year is mainly a result of three big changes:

Those with a great deal of confidence in military leaders have surged from 44% last year to fully 71% now, by far their best score ever.
Those with a great deal of confidence in the White House have more than doubled from 21% last year to 50% now.
Those with a great deal of confidence in the Executive Branch of the federal government have increased from 20% to 33% in the last twelve months.

More modest increases occurred this year in those with a great deal of confidence in:

The Supreme Court, up from 35% to 41%.
The Congress, up from 18% to 22%.
The Press, up from 13% to 16%; and

Law firms, up from 10% to 13%.

However, several categories of leaders have slipped modestly since last year:

Leaders in medicine, down from 32% (and 44% in 2000) to 29% now, their lowest rating in five years.
Leaders on Wall Street, down from 23% to 19%, their lowest rating in four years.
Leaders in major companies, down from 20% to 16%, their lowest rating in nine years since 1993; and

Organized labor, down from 15% to 11%, their lowest rating in five years.

How the decade – so far – compares with other decades

The average Confidence Index for the first three years of this decade (so far, 2000–2002) is 60, which compares with 48 in the 1990s, 51 in the 1980s, and 57 in the 1970s. There was only one measure in the 1960s, in 1966, when the Index stood at 100.

Humphrey Taylor is the chairman of The Harris Poll^®, Harris Interactive.

TABLE 1
CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS NOW

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

		Great Deal	Only Some	Hardly Any	Not Sure/ Refused
The military	%	71	25	3	1
The White House	%	50	40	7	3
Congress	%	22	64	10	3
The executive branch of the federal government	%	33	53	9	4
The U.S. Supreme Court	%	41	45	11	3
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	%	33	51	14	2
Television news	%	24	53	22	2
Medicine	%	29	47	21	3
Wall Street	%	19	54	18	10
Major companies	%	16	56	24	3
Organized religion	%	23	46	24	6
The press	%	16	51	31	1
Organized labor	%	11	55	27	7
Law firms	%	13	49	33	5

TABLE 2-A
CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1966-1989)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Those with a great deal of confidence in:	1966	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979
Those with a great deal of confidence in:	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The Military	61	27	35	40	33	24	23	27	29	29
Medicine	73	61	48	57	50	43	42	43	42	30
The U.S. Supreme Court	50	23	28	33	40	28	22	29	29	28
Major educational institutions such as colleges & universities	61	37	33	44	40	36	31	37	41	33
Organized religion	41	27	30	36	32	32	24	29	24	20
Television news	x	x	x	41	31	35	28	28	35	37
Major companies	55	27	27	29	21	19	16	20	22	18
Wall Street	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
The White House	x	x	x	18	28	x	11	31	14	15
The executive branch of the federal government	41	23	27	19	28	13	11	23	14	17
The press	29	18	18	30	25	26	20	18	23	28
Congress	42	19	21	x	18	13	9	17	10	18
Organized labor	22	14	15	20	18	14	10	14	15	10
Law firms	x	x	x	24	18	16	12	14	18	16
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	100	58	59	69	64	55	44	55	55	50

Those with a great deal of confidence in:	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989
Those with a great deal of confidence in:	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The Military	28	28	31	35	45	32	36	35	33	32
Medicine	34	37	32	35	43	39	33	36	40	30
The U.S. Supreme Court	27	29	25	33	35	28	32	30	32	28
Major educational institutions such as colleges & universities	36	34	30	36	40	35	34	36	34	32
Organized religion	22	22	20	22	24	21	22	16	17	16
Television news	29	24	24	24	28	23	27	29	28	25
Major companies	16	16	18	18	19	17	16	21	19	16
Wall Street	12	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	8
The White House	18	28	20	23	42	30	19	23	17	20
The executive branch of the federal government	17	24	x	x	x	19	18	19	16	17
The press	19	16	14	19	18	16	19	19	18	18
Congress	18	16	13	20	28	16	21	20	15	16
Organized labor	14	12	8	10	12	13	11	11	13	10
Law firms	13	x	x	12	17	12	14	15	13	x
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	49	51	46	53	63	51	51	53	50	46

________________
X = Not asked.

TABLE 2-B
CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1990-2002)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Those with a great deal of confidence in:	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002
Those with a great deal of confidence in:	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The Military	43	47	50	57	39	43	47	37	44	54	48	44	71
The White House	21	21	16	23	18	13	15	15	20	22	21	21	50
The U.S. Supreme Court	32	23	30	26	31	32	31	28	37	42	34	35	41
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	35	21	25	23	25	27	30	27	37	37	36	35	33
The executive branch of the federal government	14	X	13	15	12	9	12	12	17	17	18	20	33
Medicine	35	X	29	22	23	26	29	29	38	39	44	32	29
Television news	27	20	22	23	20	16	21	18	26	23	20	24	24
Congress	12	9	10	12	8	10	10	11	12	12	15	18	22
Organized religion	20	X	x	x	x	24	x	20	25	27	26	25	23
Wall Street	9	9	12	13	15	13	17	17	18	30	30	23	19
Major companies	14	15	11	16	19	21	21	18	21	23	28	20	16
The press	18	14	13	15	13	11	14	11	14	15	13	13	16
Law firms	X	X	11	11	8	9	11	7	11	10	12	10	13
Organized labor	14	X	X	x	x	8	x	9	13	15	15	15	11
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	50	45	45	47	43	43	47	42	54	60	59	55	65

X = Not asked.

TABLE 3
CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS; AVERAGE FOR INDEX IN EACH DECADE

	1960s		1970s		1980s		1990s		2000s
					1980	49	1990	50	2000	59
			1971	58	1981	51	1991	45	2001	55
			1972	59	1982	46	1992	45	2002	65
			1973	69	1983	53	1993	47
			1974	64	1984	63	1994	43
			1975	55	1985	51	1995	43
	1966	100	1976	44	1986	51	1996	47
			1977	55	1987	53	1997	42
			1978	55	1988	50	1998	54
			1979	50	1989	46	1999	60
AVERAGE FOR DECADE		100		57		51		48		60

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between January 16–21, 2002 among a nationwide cross section of 1,011 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

The Harris Interactive Confidence in Leadership Index measures changes in the public’s confidence in various institutions. It is derived in the following manner:

The index is based on the mean value of the items asked.
All items have equal weight.
The year 1966, the first year the items were asked, was set as a reference year for the index and assigned a score of 100.
In order to yield a score of 100 in 1966, the mean value of the original ten items was multiplied by a factor of 2.11. This same factor was then applied to the mean score in subsequent years, as long as the same items were asked.
Whenever a new item is added, the multiplication factor is changed so that the new item has no effect on that year’s score. The new factor is derived by calculating the index with and without the new item(s), taking the ratio of the two scores, and multiplying this ratio by the old factor. (The current factor is 2.28).
In years when an item included in a previous year is not asked, it is assumed for calculation purposes that no change has occurred in that item since the last time it was asked.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is difficult or impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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