The Harris Poll^® #5, January 29, 2003

Democratic Lead (Now Only Three Points) in Party Identification Has Declined to a New Low

Self-identified Conservatives now outnumber Liberals 2-to-1 but still trail Moderates
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For the second year in a row, those who think of themselves as Democrats (regardless of how they actually vote) declined in 2002. The Democratic lead in party identification over Republicans has fallen from eight points in 2000 to five points in 2001 and only three points in 2002. Those who think of themselves as Democrats now outnumber Republicans by only 34% to 31% with 24% describing themselves as Independent, with the rest as not sure (6%) or something else (5%). This is the smallest Democratic lead we have recorded since we began measuring party identification in 1969, when Democrats enjoyed a 17-point lead over Republicans.

These numbers are based on replies to 13 nationwide surveys of adults surveyed between January and December 2002. These surveys were conducted by telephone with a total of over 13,000 adults (ages 18+). The numbers for previous years, since 1969, were all based on 10,000 or more interviews each year.

In the polls conducted in the 1970s we found, on average, a 21-point Democratic lead over the Republicans, with a peak of 25 points in 1975, the year President Nixon resigned. In the 1980s and 1990s, this Democratic lead declined to?11 and seven percentage points, respectively. In the first three years of this decade (2000 through 2002) the Democratic lead has averaged only five points.

There has been little change in the proportion of adults who describe themselves as conservative (35%), liberal (18%) or moderate (40%) over the last several years. Indeed the numbers have been remarkably stable over the last thirty years. However, this is the first year since 1995 that conservatives have outnumbered liberals by more than two-to-one.

Those who think of themselves as moderate have been close to 40% for thirty years. Conservatives have been close to 35% for several years after peaking at 40% in 1995, after the "Republican revolution" and their midterm election victory of 1994.

Self-described liberals have never risen above 20% (in 1979) or fallen below 15% (in 1974). Since 1975, moderates have never fallen below 38% or risen above 42% (most recently in 1992).

While most people who identify as Democrats or Republicans tend to vote for candidates of these parties, very large numbers of them do not. Furthermore, in recent elections, a majority of voters split their tickets and only a minority cast all their votes for candidates of one party (The Harris Poll #62, November 21, 2002).

For much of the last thirty years, more Democrats voted for Republican candidates than vice-versa, and majorities or pluralities of independents voted Republican. Otherwise, Republicans would have won far fewer elections. So, obviously, the continuing decline in Democratic identification does not bode well for Democratic candidates.

Humphrey Taylor is the chairman of The Harris Poll^®, Harris Interactive.

THE HARRIS POLL – PARTY AFFILIATION

"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself – a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

Base: All adults

NOTE: "Others" and "Not sures" excluded.

DECADE MEANS OF DEMOCRATIC LEAD

"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself – a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

Base: All adults

THE HARRIS POLL – POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY

"How would you describe your own political philosophy – conservative, moderate, or liberal?"

NOTE: NA means not asked

This issue of The Harris Poll^® is based on more than 13,000 interviews conducted by telephone within the United States between January and December 2002. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus one percentage point of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.