The Harris Poll^® #10, February 19, 2003

President Bush’s Ratings Fall Sharply

President’s ratings now 52% positive, 46% negative
Colin Powell now the only Cabinet Member or political leader with very high ratings

_______________________________

by Humphrey Taylor

The last two months have taken a heavy toll on the president’s popularity, but a modest 52% to 46% majority still gives him positive ratings. Two months ago, almost two-thirds of all adults (64%) gave the president positive ratings and only just over a third (35%) gave him negative ratings.

Other members of President Bush’s cabinet, as well as the parties in Congress and Congressional leaders, with one exception, have all seen a huge decline in their popularity since the very high numbers we recorded soon after September 11, 2001. The one exception is Secretary of State Colin Powell. He still enjoys an extraordinarily high degree of popularity, with 76% giving him positive ratings and only 21% giving him negative ratings. These numbers are fractionally better than they were in December 2002, perhaps because of his powerful recent testimony to the United Nations Security Council.

While none of the other leaders has seen as big declines since last December as President Bush, their numbers, nonetheless, are all down very substantially since their peak soon after September 11.

Including results from the latest poll, we see the following declines in popularity since soon after September 11, 2001:

President Bush down from 88% to 52%, a decline of 36 points.
Secretary of State Colin Powell down from 88% to 76%, a decline of 12 points.
Vice President Dick Cheney down from 69% to 45%, a decline of 24 points.
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld down from 78% to 56%, a decline of 22 points.
Attorney General John Ashcroft down from 65% to 51%, a decline of 14 points.
House Speaker Dennis Hastert down from 52% to 33%, a decline of 19 points.
The Republicans in Congress down from 67% to 43%, a decline of 24 points.
The Democrats in Congress down from 68% to 38%, a decline of 30 points.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll^®, a nationwide telephone survey conducted by Harris Interactive^® among a sample of 1,010 adults, from February 12 to 16, 2003.

The Importance of Issues

In December only 18% of all adults spontaneously replied "the war" when asked to think of the most important issues for the government to address. This was far below the economy at 34% but ahead of all the other issues.

Now, fully 38% say that "the war" is one of the two most important issues for the government to address, virtually tied with the economy at 37%. Furthermore, the next two issues mentioned most frequently are terrorism (16%) and Iraq/Saddam Hussein (15%). Most other issues which were mentioned by substantial numbers of people have declined in importance: those saying education are down from 11% to 5%, those saying homeland domestic security are down from 9% to 6%, those saying employment/jobs are down from 8% to 5% and those saying health care are down from 10% to 8%.

These responses were not picked from any list. They are the unaided responses of those surveyed.

Humphrey Taylor is the chairman of The Harris Poll, Harris Interactive.

RATING DECLINES SINCE 9/11/01

POSITIVE RATINGS	Soon After 9/11	December 2002	Now (February 2003)	Change (December 2002 to February 2003)	Change (9/11 to Now)
President George Bush	88%	64%	52%	-12 points	-36 points
Secretary of State Colin Powell	88%	74%	76%	+2 points	-12 points
Vice President Dick Cheney	69%	50%	45%	-5 points	-24 points
Secretary of Defense Ronald Rumsfeld	78%	59%	56%	-3 points	- 22 points
Attorney General John Ashcroft	65%	51%	51%	0 points	-14 points
House Speaker Dennis Hastert	52%	26%	33%	+7 points	-19 points
Republicans in Congress	67%	47%	43%	-4 points	-24 points
Democrats in Congress	68%	36%	38%	+2 points	-30 points
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist	NA	31%	37%	+6 points	(NA)

Note: (NA) = Not Applicable

TABLE 1

PRESIDENT BUSH'S OVERALL JOB RATING

"How would you rate the job President George W. Bush is doing as president – excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

Base: All adults

			Positive*	Negative**
2003	February	%	52	46
2002	December	%	64	35
	November	%	65	33
	October	%	64	35
	September	%	68	30
	August	%	63	37
	July	%	62	37
	June	%	70	28
	May	%	74	25
	April	%	75	23
	March	%	77	22
	February	%	79	20
	January	%	79	19
2001	December	%	82	17
	November	%	86	12
	October	%	88	11
	August	%	52	43
	July	%	56	39
	June	%	50	46
	May	%	59	35
	March	%	49	38
	February	%	56	26

* Positive = excellent or good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 2

RATINGS OF DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS – TREND

(Not Sure’s Excluded)

"And how do you rate the job Democrats in Congress are doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

	TREND		Positive	Negative
2003	February	%	38	54
2002	December	%	36	55
	November	%	40	52
	October	%	40	52
	September	%	42	49
	August`	%	38	54
	July	%	41	49
	June	%	45	46
	May	%	45	45
	April	%	47	42
	March	%	48	43
	February	%	49	41
	January	%	52	40
2001	October (high)	%	68	24
	May (low)	%	40	51
2000	September (high)	%	48	44
	June (low)	%	38	52
1999	October (low)	%	42	50
	January (high)	%	50	47
1998	September (high)	%	49	47
	June (low)	%	41	53
1997	June (low)	%	36	60
	February (high)	%	43	54
1996	May (high)	%	36	62
	January (low)	%	31	68
1995	November (high)	%	34	64
	July (low)	%	30	66
1994	December	%	28	70

TABLE 3

RATINGS OF REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS – TREND

(Not Sure’s Excluded)

"And how do you rate the job Republicans in Congress are doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

	TREND		Positive	Negative
2003	February	%	43	49
2002	December	%	47	47
	November	%	47	45
	October	%	46	45
	September	%	47	42
	August	%	41	49
	July	%	39	52
	June	%	46	45
	May	%	48	44
	April	%	49	39
	March	%	50	41
	February	%	50	40
	January	%	58	34
2001	October (high)	%	67	24
	August (low)	%	37	52
2000	May (low)	%	33	60
	February (high)	%	38	55
1999	October (low)	%	32	58
	September (high)	%	39	55
1998	June (low)	%	31	62
	February (high)	%	44	53
1997	June (low)	%	31	67
	February (high)	%	38	58
1996	May (low)	%	29	69
	January (high)	%	33	66
1995	November (low)	%	35	63
	April (high)	%	42	56

TABLE 4

RATINGS OF DENNIS HASTERT – TREND

(Not Sure's Excluded)

"And how do you rate the job House Speaker Dennis Hastert is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

	TREND		Positive	Negative
2003	February	%	33	34
2002	December	%	26	33
	November	%	30	31
	October	%	30	29
	September	%	35	29
	August	%	29	35
	July	%	28	36
	June	%	34	31
	May	%	33	25
	April	%	32	26
	March	%	33	25
	February	%	37	25
	January	%	40	24
2001	October (high)	%	52	16
	August (low)	%	27	29
2000	August (high)	%	29	28
	July (low)	%	23	31
1999	October (low)	%	25	34
	April (high)	%	36	39

TABLE 5

RATINGS OF VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY

(Not Sure's Excluded)

"And how do you rate the job Vice President Cheney is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

	TREND		Positive	Negative
2003	February	%	45	44
2002	December	%	50	37
	November	%	52	39
	October	%	54	37
	September	%	52	37
	August	%	45	43
	July	%	46	41
	June	%	55	34
	May	%	55	33
	April	%	55	31
	March	%	59	29
	February	%	57	31
	January	%	55	31
2001	October (high)	%	69	20
	July (low)	%	39	52

TABLE 6

RATINGS OF SECRETARY OF STATE COLIN POWELL

(Not Sure's Excluded)

"And how do you rate the job Secretary of State Colin Powell is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

	TREND		Positive	Negative
2003	February	%	76	21
2002	December	%	74	21
	November	%	75	18
	October	%	75	20
	September	%	75	18
	August	%	75	19
	July	%	76	19
	June	%	79	16
	May	%	80	15
	April	%	80	14
	March	%	80	14
	February	%	79	15
	January	%	84	12
2001	December	%	84	10
	November	%	83	12
	October	%	88	8

TABLE 7

RATINGS OF SECRETARY OF DEFENSE DONALD RUMSFELD

(Not Sure's Excluded)

"And how do you rate the job Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

	TREND		Positive	Negative
2003	February	%	56	35
2002	December	%	59	30
	November	%	59	30
	October	%	60	30
	September	%	61	27
	August	%	60	29
	July	%	56	33
	June	%	65	24
	May	%	67	22
	April	%	70	18
	March	%	71	18
	February	%	70	17
	January	%	77	16
2001	December (low)	%	75	14
	October (high)	%	78	12

TABLE 8

RATINGS OF ATTORNEY GENERAL JOHN ASHCROFT

(Not Sure's Excluded)

"And how do you rate the job Attorney General John Ashcroft is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

	TREND		Positive	Negative
2003	February	%	51	37
2002	November	%	51	33
	November	%	54	32
	October	%	53	32
	September	%	52	32
	August	%	53	34
	July	%	50	36
	June	%	52	33
	May	%	56	29
	April	%	61	24
	March	%	57	27
	February	%	59	26
	January	%	64	23
2001	December	%	65	23

TABLE 9

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR GOVERNMENT

(Spontaneous, Unprompted Replies)

"What do you think are the two most important issues for the government to address?"

Base: All adults

	‘93	‘94	‘95	‘96	‘97	‘98	‘99	‘00	'01	‘01	‘02	‘02	‘02	‘02	‘02	‘03
	Jan	Feb	Feb	April	May	Jan	Feb	Aug	Jun	Dec	Jan	May	Jul	Sept	Dec	Feb
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The economy (non-specific)	26	12	7	14	8	9	7	5	13	32	32	17	33	28	34	37
The war³	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	8	4	4	14	18	38
Terrorism³	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	22	24	30	30	24	17	16
Iraq/Saddam Hussein	*	*	*	*	*	*	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	11	15
Education	10	6	10	14	15	14	21	25	20	12	15	11	8	7	11	5
Health care (not Medicare)	31	45	25	16	10	11	12	15	12	5	6	7	8	7	10	8
Homeland/domestic security/public safety³	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	4	5	7	3	9	6
Employment/jobs	19	14	10	9	5	3	4	4	3	7	7	3	4	4	8	5
Taxes	7	6	12	11	14	16	12	13	19	6	9	7	5	3	5	4
Foreign policy (non-specific)	6	4	2	3	3	5	4	3	5	2	4	4	2	2	4	2
National security³	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	2	3	6	8	9	8	12	3	6
Drugs	3	6	3	4	8	6	2	5	4	2	2	2	2	3	3	2
Environment	3	1	1	1	3	2	3	3	8	1	2	2	2	2	3	1
Social Security¹	x	x	x	x	6	6	24	16	8	3	4	4	4	3	2	1
Homelessness²	-	-	-	3	4	4	3	3	1	2	2	1	1	1	2	1
Domestic/social issues (non-specific)	10	4	4	4	2	3	2	2	1	2	2	3	1	2	2	1
Crime/violence	3	36	21	16	19	13	8	10	6	1	2	3	5	2	2	*
Peace/world peace/nuclear arms	2	1	1	3	1	3	3	1	-	2	1	1	3	2	2	3
Middle East peace process between Palestinians and Israel³	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	6	1	2	2	1
(Programs for) the poor/ poverty	7	8	10	2	3	2	2	3	2	1	1	2	3	2	2	1
Military/Defense	x	2	1	1	2	2	2	4	3	4	2	2	1	2	1	2
Medicare¹	x	x	x	3	4	5	5	6	4	1	1	1	1	2	1	2
Immigration	*	*	2	2	2	1	*	1	2	1	*	2	2	1	1	*
Prescription drug prices	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	X	1	1
Ethics in government³	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	1	2	1	2	*	1	*
Programs for the elderly (not Medicare/Social Security)	3	2	5	6	1	1	1	2	2	1	1	2	1	1	1	1
Corporate Scandals/Fraud	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	*	1	*
Welfare	2	7	16	13	14	8	4	2	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	1
Abortion	9	3	3	4	2	2	2	6	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Human/civil/women's rights	x	1	1	2	2	1	*	1	*	1	*	1	1	*	1	*
Federal budget surplus/deficit	19	8	22	22	20	12	5	4	3	1	1	3	X	X	1	3
Race Relations³	x	x	x	x	x	2	*	1	*	1	1	1	*	*	*	1
Issues involving children	X	X	X	X	2	1	2	1	2	*	1	*	1	*	*	1
Gun control	*	3	2	1	1	1	1	4	2	*	*	*	1	1	*	*
Family values (decline of)	*	*	2	2	2	1	2	1	1	*	1	*	*	1	*	*
Other⁴	5	8	7	7	8	19	2	19	6	3	3	3	5	9	8	6
Not sure/Refused/No issue	5	8	7	7	9	12	16	18	13	11	11	22	11	16	10	4

* = Less than 0.5%. 1 Previously coded under "Programs for the elderly."
X = Not mentioned as specific issue. 2 Previously coded under "Programs for the poor."
3 Previously coded as "Other."
4 Including religion [lack of, decline of (1%)], and housing (1%)

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 12 and 16, 2003 among a nationwide cross section of 1,010 adults (ages 18+). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

J18203
Q410-426