As Economy Grows the Public’s Priorities for Growth Are Health Care, Education and Defense

Entertainment, clothes, autos and food are far lower priorities.
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As and when the economy grows, most people would like to see a disproportionate share of that growth going to increased spending on health care, education and defense. Only a few people think that food, clothes, housing, automobiles and transportation, or leisure and entertainment should be high priorities for economic growth.

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 3,462 adults surveyed online between May 19 and 27, 2003, with the same methodology used by Harris Interactive^® to predict the 2000 U.S. elections with great accuracy.

When asked which of eight major segments of the economy should be the highest priority for future growth, most people picked health care (34%), education (29%), or defense (27%). Very few people picked any of the other items – housing (4%), food (3%), automobiles and transportation (1%), leisure and entertainment (less than .05%) or clothes (less than 0.5%). When people were asked to give both their first and second choices, the same three areas of spending top the list, but the gap between them widens somewhat. Fully 67% pick health care as their first or second choice, 53% pick education and 46% choose defense.

There are substantial differences in attitudes and priorities among the different segments of the population. While health care is high on the list for all segments, it is higher among people aged 40 and over than among people under 40. Among people aged 18 to 24, 39% pick education, 25% pick defense and only 23% pick health care. And among those aged 25 to 29, 36% pick education, 29% pick health care and 24% pick defense.

There are substantial differences among the priorities of Republicans, Democrats and Independents as well as among conservatives, moderates and liberals. Health care tops the list of priorities among Democrats (42%) and independents (39%) as well as among liberals (48%) and moderates (35%). Only 22% of Republicans and 23% of conservatives choose health care as their number one priority, whereas 45% of both groups pick defense as their number one priority for future growth.

One of the most striking findings in this survey is that much of health care, most of education and all of defense are paid for out of taxes, whereas the other items on the list, which only a few people regard as equally high priorities for increased spending and growth – housing, food, automobiles, entertainment and clothes – are mostly paid for with after-tax dollars by individual consumers.

A visitor from outer space who looked at these numbers might conclude that most Americans would be strongly supportive of much higher taxation to spend on health care, education and defense. This visitor would be puzzled by the popularity of politicians who favor tax cuts and, by implication, less money for the segments of the economy which the public believes should grow the fastest.

In commenting on these numbers, Ian Morrison, Ph.D., the well-known futurist, observed, "This is striking evidence that the American public favors more spending on public goods like health, education and defense. Despite recent tax cuts, politicians will continue to feel pressure to expand these sectors. In particular, healthcare seems destined to increase substantially as a share of the economy, not only because of the often cited driving forces of aging and technology, but because the public wants increased investment in health services. The official government forecast of healthcare taking 17% of GNP by 2011 may prove to be a severe underestimate of healthcare’s role in the future."

Humphrey Taylor is the chairman of The Harris Poll^®, Harris Interactive.

HIGHEST PRIORITY FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH

"Different segments of the economy grow at different rates. This is a list of some of the biggest segments of the whole U.S. economy – how money is spent. As the economy grows, which of these do you think should be the highest priority for future growth?"

Base: All Adults

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* Less than 0.5%.

Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

1^st and 2^nd HIGHEST PRIORITIES FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH (COMBINED)

"Different segments of the economy grow at different rates. This is a list of some of the biggest segments of the whole U.S. economy – how money is spent. As the economy grows, which of these do you think should be the highest/second priority for future growth?

Base: All Adults

NOTE: Percentages add to more than 100% because respondents can select multiple responses.

LOWEST PRIORITY FOR GROWTH

"Different segments of the economy grow at different rates. This is a list of some of the biggest segments of the whole U.S. economy – how money is spent. As the economy grows, which of these do you think should be the lowest priority for future growth?"

Base: All Adults

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* Less than 0.5%.

The Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between May 19 and 27, 2003 among a nationwide cross section of 3,462 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education and number of adults in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. "Propensity score" weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

In theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results in each country have a statistical precision of plus or minus two percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This online survey is not a probability sample.

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W18887
Q605, Q610, Q615