The Harris Poll^® #15, February 27, 2004

Democrats Still Hold a Small Lead in Party Identification

Almost no change in proportions who consider themselves conservatives, liberals and moderates
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Washington may be highly polarized by party but this year’s presidential and Congressional elections are likely to be won by the candidates who win the support of independent and moderate voters. The battle will be won or lost at the center.

Unlike some of the other polls, The Harris Poll finds that the Democrats still retain a small lead over the Republicans in party identification, although it has declined in every decade since the 1970s. Based on over 6,000 interviews conducted by telephone last year, one-third (33%) of all adults "consider themselves" to be Democrats, 28% self-identify as Republicans and 24% as Independents.

However, the average Democratic lead in party identification has fallen from an average of 21 percentage points in the 1970s, eleven percentage points in the 1980s, and seven points in the 1990s to only five points, so far, in the 2000s. There is no mistaking the huge change in party affiliation that has taken place over the last 30 years.

Some other polls report that the Democrats and the Republicans are now virtually equal. We believe the small differences between their numbers and ours reflect the use of slightly different questions; the trends are very similar.

Of course, party identification is not a very good predictor of how people will vote. Historically, Republicans were more likely to vote Republican than Democrats were to vote Democratic; so the long-term trend is nothing but bad news for the Democrats. The only good news for them is that their modest lead has not continued to decrease over the last two years, under the Bush administration.

Of course, most people who identify as Democrats and Republicans tend to vote that way in most elections. So, in most elections whoever gets a majority of the independents (now a quarter of all adults) wins.

Self-described moderates (40%) continue to outnumber those who consider themselves conservatives (33%) or liberals (18%). These numbers have been remarkably stable over more than 30 years. On a decade-by-decade basis, Conservatives grew modestly from 32% in the 1970s to 36% in the 1980s, and 38% in the 1990s. So far in the 2000s they comprise 34% of adults. Liberals have remained constant at 18% and moderates have held the lead with 40% or 41% in each decade.

"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself – a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

Base: All adults

NOTE: "Other" and "Not sure" responses excluded.

"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself – a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

Base: All adults

"How would you describe your own political philosophy – conservative, moderate, or liberal?"

Base: All adults

"How would you describe your own political philosophy – conservative, moderate, or liberal?"

Base: All adults

This issue of The Harris Poll^® is based on more than 6,000 interviews conducted by telephone within the United States between January and December 2003. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus one percentage point of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.