The Harris Poll^® #18, March 10, 2004

Confidence in Leaders of Major Institutions Declines Modestly Since Last Year

Significant decline in confidence in the White House and Supreme Court while confidence in leaders of higher education and organized religion recover ground lost a year earlier.
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Early every year, The Harris Poll measures the level of public confidence in the leaders of fourteen major institutions. Over the 37 years since we first did this, confidence has gone up and down dramatically, and different institutions have moved up and down the list. This year’s survey finds that, overall, public confidence has slipped a bit over the last year, with our "Confidence Index" falling two points from 57 last year to 55 now.

By historic standards, 55 is still quite a high number. In the 1980s and 1990s, there were only two years when it was higher than 55. This year’s level of confidence is now what it was at the beginning of 2001. It shot up ten points to 65 after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon (what we called the "9/11 effect"), before falling back to 57 just over a year ago.

The main reasons for this year’s two-point decline are a nine-point drop (from 40% to 31%) in those having a great deal of confidence in the White House, and a five-point decline in those with a great deal of confidence in the Supreme Court, from 34% to 29%.

By historic standards the White House’s 31 points is actually a high score. The only years when it has been higher were in 1984 (at 42%), and (because of the 9/11 effect) in 2002 (at 50%) and a year later (at 40%).

The Supreme Court’s 29%, on the other hand, compares unfavorably with its scores in the most of the 1980s and 1990s. The last time those with a great deal of confidence in the Supreme Court fell below 30% was 1997.

While controversy about the justification for the war in Iraq, and the accuracy or possible misrepresentation of intelligence reports, continue to divide the country, confidence in our military leaders remains extraordinarily strong. Whether or not the war is viewed as justified, only a tiny minority of the public (7%) does not have confidence in our military leaders. The gap between our military leaders and those next on the list is huge. Fully 62% continue to have a great deal of confidence in our military leaders. Following are leaders of universities and colleges (37%) and leaders of medicine (32%).

The institutions in which the smallest numbers of people have a great deal of confidence are law firms (10%), major companies (12%), the Congress (13%), organized labor (15%) and the press (15%). These are similar to their number a year earlier, except that the Congress has slipped from 20% to 13%.

These are the results of a nationwide telephone poll by Harris Interactive^® in which 1,020 adults were surveyed between February 9 and 16, 2004.

Humphrey Taylor is the chairman of The Harris Poll^®, Harris Interactive.

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

________________

X = Not asked

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

________________

X = Not asked

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

________________

X = Not asked.

*December 2002.

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 9 and 16, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,020 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

The Harris Interactive Confidence in Leadership Index measures changes in the public’s confidence in various institutions. It is derived in the following manner:

1. The index is based on the mean value of the items asked.
2. All items have equal weight.
3. The year 1966, the first year the items were asked, was set as a reference year for the index and assigned a score of 100.
4. In order to yield a score of 100 in 1966, the mean value of the original ten items was multiplied by a factor of 2.11. This same factor was then applied to the mean score in subsequent years, as long as the same items were asked.
5. Whenever a new item is added, the multiplication factor is changed so that the new item has no effect on that year’s score. The new factor is derived by calculating the index with and without the new item(s), taking the ratio of the two scores, and multiplying this ratio by the old factor. (The current factor is 2.28).
6. In years when an item included in a previous year is not asked, it is assumed for calculation purposes that no change has occurred in that item since the last time it was asked.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of ±3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

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