The Harris Poll^® #42, June 16, 2004

Majority in U.S. Favors Stricter Gun Control – But Gun Control Is Not Likely To Be Much of an Issue in Upcoming Presidential Election

A majority of the public continues to favor stricter gun control, but gun control is not likely to be much of an issue in this year’s presidential election. In fact, a modest plurality thinks President George Bush would do a better job than Senator John Kerry on the issue of gun control. These findings suggest that gun control is not an issue which is influencing voters in their choice of presidential candidates.

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 2,408 adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive^® between May 10 and 17, 2004.

The main findings of the survey are:

A modest 52% majority favors stricter gun control, with 22% wanting less strict control and 20% wanting no change.
A slightly larger 57% majority favors stricter laws relating to the control of handguns, with 18% favoring less strict laws and 19% wanting no change.
By 29% to 25% a modest plurality thinks President George Bush would be better on the gun control issue than Senator John Kerry, but 22% see no difference, and 24% are not sure.
Small and equal proportions (23%) prefer a Republican-controlled and a Democratically-controlled Congress on the gun control issue. Most people see no difference (31%) or are not sure (24%).

Republicans and Democrats hold very different views on gun control. A 71% to 11% majority of Democrats favors stricter gun control, whereas Republicans are split 35% to 35%. A 65% to 7% majority of Republicans think President Bush would handle the issue better than Senator Kerry, while a 45% to 6% plurality of Democrats believes the opposite.

This survey does not provide trends

Because of a slight change in the way these questions were asked in this survey, compared to previous Harris Polls, this poll does not measure changes in replies to key questions compared to previous surveys.

In previous surveys, we did not offer "no difference" or "neither" as possible replies to these questions but we did accept them as answers if given. In this survey they were offered as possible answers and, as a result, more people gave their replies. As a result fewer people gave other answers (e.g., for stricter gun control or less strict gun control.) We believe that the new questions, which make it easier for people to say that they see "no difference" or "neither," gives a more accurate representation of public opinion.

So differences between our earlier surveys and this survey shown in Tables 1, 2 and 4 should not be considered as trends.

TABLE 1

FAVOR STRICTER OR LESS STRICT GUN CONTROL

"In general, would you say you favor stricter gun control, or less strict gun control?"

Base: All Adults

	1998	1999	2000	2004	Republican	Democrat	Independent
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Stricter	69	63	63	52	35	71	50
Less strict	23	25	28	22	35	11	23
Neither*	7	10	6	20	24	13	24
Don’t know/Refused	1	2	4	7	6	5	4

*There is a change in the question in 2004. In the previous surveys "neither" was not offered as a possible response but was accepted if given. In this new survey it was offered as a possible response.

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.

TABLE 2

FAVOR STRICTER OR LESS STRICT CONTROLLING HAND GUNS

"In general, would you say you favor stricter or less strict laws relating to the control of hand guns?"

Base: All Adults

	1998	1999	2000	2004
	%	%	%	%
Stricter	76	73	72	57
Less strict	19	20	20	18
Neither*	5	5	6	19
Don’t know/Refused	*	2	2	6

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.

TABLE 3

WHICH CANDIDATE – BUSH OR KERRY – WOULD BE BETTER ON GUN CONTROL

"And which of the two main candidates for the presidency – President George W. Bush or Senator John Kerry – do you think would do a better job on the gun-control issue?"

Base: All Adults

	Total	Republican	Democrat	Independent
	%	%	%	%
George W. Bush	29	65	6	21
John Kerry	25	7	45	26
No difference/Neither*	22	11	23	32
Not sure/Refused	24	18	25	21

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.

TABLE 4

WHICH WOULD BE BETTER ON GUN CONTROL – A REPUBLICAN-CONTROLLED OR DEMOCRATICALLY-CONTROLLED CONGRESS?

"Which do you think would do a better job on the gun control issue – a Republican-controlled Congress or a Democratically-controlled Congress?"

Base: All Adults

		2000	2004
Republican-controlled Congress	%	34	23
Democratically-controlled Congress	%	38	23
No difference/Neither*	%	11	31
Don’t know/Refused	%	18	24

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between May 10 and 17, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 2,408 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. "Propensity score" weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

In theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of ±2 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This online sample was not a probability sample.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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Q905, Q910, Q915, Q920