The Harris Poll^® #59, August 19, 2004

Bush and Kerry Neck and Neck Says Harris Poll

The presidential election is still very close. Neither President George W. Bush nor Senator John Kerry is campaigning hard, but neither has found a way to pull ahead. In the latest Harris Poll, the two candidates are tied 47 to 47 percent among likely voters. The only Harris Poll to find either candidate to have a clear lead was in June, when a poll taken shortly after President Ronald Reagan’s death reported a ten-point Bush lead. We believed (and reported) this to be a blip caused by the good feeling surrounding the memories of the popular Republican president and President Bush’s success in associating himself with the public’s good feelings about him.

Another indicator of how close the presidential race is now (which does not necessarily mean it will be close in November) is that President Bush’s latest job ratings (48% positive, 51% negative) are worse than the equivalent ratings of recent presidents who were re-elected for a second term (Clinton, Reagan, Nixon) but better than those of his father President George H.W. Bush and President Carter, who both failed to win re-election, at this time in their campaigns for re-election.

However, in August 1976, President Gerald Ford’s ratings (48% positive, 45% negative) were slightly better than President Bush’s current ratings, and he went on to lose a very close election to Jimmy Carter that November.

This latest nationwide survey by Harris Interactive® was conducted by telephone between August 10 and 15, 2004 among 1,012 adults.

PRESIDENT BUSH AND HIS PREDECESSORS

JOB APPROVAL RATINGS

President	Date	Positive	Negative	Not Sure	Re-elected
George W. Bush	August 2004	48	51	1	?
Clinton	August 1996	51	47	1	Yes
George H.W. Bush	August 1992	41	58	1	No
Reagan	September 1984	61	38	*	Yes
Carter	August 1980	33	67	*	No
Ford	August 1976	48	45	7	No
Nixon	August 1972	59	40	1	Yes

*=Less than 0.5 percent

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding

Other findings in this survey include the ratings of senior members of theadministration, congressional Democrats and Republicans, and congressionalleaders. Most of these ratings have not changed much. Secretary of State ColinPowell’s remarkable and continuing popularity (69% positive, 27% negative) isactually a modest improvement over his June numbers.

Opinions are still split on Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld (45% positive,49% negative) and Attorney General John Ashcroft (42% positive, 44% negative).

Vice President Dick Cheney (40% positive, 54% negative) is still the leastpopular of the president’s most senior aides.

The Republicans in Congress (40% positive, 54% negative) continue to besomewhat less unpopular than the Democrats in Congress (35% positive, 58%negative).

A technical note: what is, and is not, a "statistical dead heat"?

Journalists often describe a close race, where a poll shows a small gapbetween two candidates as a "statistical dead heat." HarrisInteractive and most other leading firms never use this phrase because webelieve it is misleading. It implies, wrongly, that there is an equalprobability that either candidate is ahead and that (wrongly again) there is nodifference between (say) a two-point lead for one candidate and a two-point leadover the other. The term "a dead heat" should only be used when thepoll shows the candidates to be exactly equal. If one candidate is aheadby even one percentage point, there is a probability (if not a big one) that heor she is actually ahead, so it is wrong to describe this as a "statisticaldead heat."

TABLE 1
BUSH VS. KERRY

Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W.Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as anIndependent, for whom would you most likely vote?"

If respondent said "not sure/refused":
Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush,John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"

Base: Likely Voters

	Likely Voters
	April	June	Now
	%	%	%
George Bush	46	51	47
John Kerry	43	41	47
Ralph Nader	8	6	3
None of these	1	*	*
Not sure/Refused	2	1	3
Bush Lead	+3	+10	0

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2
POSITIVE RATINGS TRENDS SINCE 9/11/01: SUMMARY

Base: All Adults

POSITIVE RATINGS	Soon After 9/11	Feb. 2003	April 2003	Aug. 2003	Oct. 2003	Dec. 2003	Feb. 2004	April 2004	June 2004	Aug 2004
President George Bush	88%	52%	70%	57%	59%	50%	51%	48%	50%	48%
Secretary of State Colin Powell	88%	76%	81%	72%	70%	74%	65%	63%	67%	69%
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld	78%	56%	71%	55%	47%	57%	50%	45%	47%	45%
Attorney General John Ashcroft	65%	51%	57%	48%	42%	51%	44%	40%	43%	42%
Vice President Dick Cheney	69%	45%	55%	42%	42%	42%	41%	36%	42%	40%
Republicans in Congress	67%	43%	52%	41%	40%	37%	40%	35%	39%	40%
Democrats in Congress	68%	38%	39%	30%	34%	28%	33%	32%	31%	35%
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist	NA	37%	39%	32%	29%	28%	31%	26%	30%	28%
House Speaker Dennis Hastert	52%	33%	41%	29%	29%	24%	26%	25%	29%	29%

Note: (NA) = Not Applicable

TABLE 3
PRESIDENT BUSH'S OVERALL JOB RATING

(Not Sure’s Excluded)

"How would you rate the job President George W. Bush isdoing as president – excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

Base: All Adults

			Positive*	Negative**
2004	August	%	48	51
	June	%	50	49
	April	%	48	51
	February	%	51	48
2003	December	%	50	49
	October	%	59	40
	August	%	57	41
	June	%	61	36
	April	%	70	29
	February	%	52	46
2002	December	%	64	35
	November	%	65	33
	October	%	64	35
	September	%	68	30
	August	%	63	37
	July	%	62	37
	June	%	70	28
	May	%	74	25
	April	%	75	23
	March	%	77	22
	February	%	79	20
	January	%	79	19
2001	December	%	82	17
	November	%	86	12
	October	%	88	11
	August	%	52	43
	July	%	56	39
	June	%	50	46
	May	%	59	35
	March	%	49	38
	February	%	56	26

* Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 4
RATINGS OF DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS – TREND

(Not Sure’s Excluded)

"And how would you rate the job Democrats in Congress aredoing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

	TREND		Positive*	Negative**
2004	August	%	35	58
	June	%	31	59
	April	%	32	57
	February	%	33	58
2003	December	%	28	61
	October	%	34	56
	August	%	30	60
	June	%	41	51
	April	%	39	52
	February	%	38	54
2002	December	%	36	55
	November	%	40	52
	October	%	40	52
	September	%	42	49
	August`	%	38	54
	July	%	41	49
	June	%	45	46
	May	%	45	45
	April	%	47	42
	March	%	48	43
	February	%	49	41
	January	%	52	40
2001	October (high)	%	68	24
	May (low)	%	40	51
2000	September (high)	%	48	44
	June (low)	%	38	52
1999	October (low)	%	42	50
	January (high)	%	50	47
1998	September (high)	%	49	47
	June (low)	%	41	53
1997	June (low)	%	36	60
	February (high)	%	43	54
1996	May (high)	%	36	62
	January (low)	%	31	68
1995	November (high)	%	34	64
	July (low)	%	30	66
1994	December	%	28	70

* Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 5
RATINGS OF REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS – TREND

(Not Sure’s Excluded)

"And how would you rate the job Republicans in Congressare doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

	TREND		Positive*	Negative**
2004	August	%	40	54
	June	%	39	53
	April	%	35	55
	February	%	40	52
2003	December	%	37	51
	October	%	40	50
	August	%	41	51
	June	%	45	47
	April	%	52	41
	February	%	43	49
2002	December	%	47	47
	November	%	47	45
	October	%	46	45
	September	%	47	42
	August	%	41	49
	July	%	39	52
	June	%	46	45
	May	%	48	44
	April	%	49	39
	March	%	50	41
	February	%	50	40
	January	%	58	34
2001	October (high)	%	67	24
	August (low)	%	37	52
2000	May (low)	%	33	60
	February (high)	%	38	55
1999	October (low)	%	32	58
	September (high)	%	39	55
1998	June (low)	%	31	62
	February (high)	%	44	53
1997	June (low)	%	31	67
	February (high)	%	38	58
1996	May (low)	%	29	69
	January (high)	%	33	66
1995	November (low)	%	35	63
	April (high)	%	42	56

* Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 6
RATINGS OF HOUSE SPEAKER DENNIS HASTERT – TREND

(Not Sure's Excluded)

"And how would you rate the job House Speaker DennisHastert is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

	TREND		Positive*	Negative**
2004	August	%	29	33
	June	%	29	32
	April	%	25	35
	February	%	26	35
2003	December	%	24	30
	October	%	29	35
	August	%	29	36
	June	%	34	31
	April	%	41	29
	February	%	33	34
2002	December	%	26	33
	November	%	30	31
	October	%	30	29
	September	%	35	29
	August	%	29	35
	July	%	28	36
	June	%	34	31
	May	%	33	25
	April	%	32	26
	March	%	33	25
	February	%	37	25
	January	%	40	24
2001	October (high)	%	52	16
	August (low)	%	27	29
2000	August (high)	%	29	28
	July (low)	%	23	31
1999	October (low)	%	25	34
	April (high)	%	36	39

* Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 7
RATINGS OF VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY

(Not Sure's Excluded)

"And how would you rate the job Vice President Cheney isdoing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

	TREND		Positive*	Negative**
2004	August	%	40	54
	June	%	42	49
	April	%	36	52
	February	%	41	48
2003	December	%	42	47
	October	%	42	44
	August	%	42	45
	June	%	49	40
	April	%	55	36
	February	%	45	44
2002	December	%	50	37
	November	%	52	39
	October	%	54	37
	September	%	52	37
	August	%	45	43
	July	%	46	41
	June	%	55	34
	May	%	55	33
	April	%	55	31
	March	%	59	29
	February	%	57	31
	January	%	55	31
2001	October (high)	%	69	20
	July (low)	%	39	52

* Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 8
RATINGS OF SECRETARY OF STATE COLIN POWELL

(Not Sure's Excluded)

"And how would you rate the job Secretary of State ColinPowell is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

	TREND		Positive*	Negative**
2004	August	%	69	27
	June	%	67	28
	April	%	63	31
	February	%	65	30
2003	December	%	74	22
	October	%	70	23
	August	%	72	22
	June	%	77	19
	April	%	81	16
	February	%	76	21
2002	December	%	74	21
	November	%	75	18
	October	%	75	20
	September	%	75	18
	August	%	75	19
	July	%	76	19
	June	%	79	16
	May	%	80	15
	April	%	80	14
	March	%	80	14
	February	%	79	15
	January	%	84	12
2001	December	%	84	10
	November	%	83	12
	October	%	88	8

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 9
RATINGS OF SECRETARY OF DEFENSE DONALD RUMSFELD

(Not Sure’s Excluded)

"And how would you rate the job Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

	TREND		Positive*	Negative**
2004	August	%	45	49
	June	%	47	47
	April	%	45	47
	February	%	50	43
2003	December	%	57	38
	October	%	47	44
	August	%	55	36
	June	%	60	32
	April	%	71	22
	February	%	56	35
2002	December	%	59	30
	November	%	59	30
	October	%	60	30
	September	%	61	27
	August	%	60	29
	July	%	56	33
	June	%	65	24
	May	%	67	22
	April	%	70	18
	March	%	71	18
	February	%	70	17
	January	%	77	16
2001	December (low)	%	75	14
	October (high)	%	78	12

* Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 10
RATINGS OF SENATE MAJORITY LEADER BILL FRIST

(Not Sure's Excluded)

"And how would you rate the job Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

		TREND				Positive*		Negative**
2004		August		%		28		38
		June		%		30		36
		April		%		26		36
	February		%		31		36
2003	December		%		27		38
	October		%		29		34
	August		%		32		35
	June		%		38		32
	April		%		39		29
	February		%		37		30

* Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.
TABLE 11
RATINGS OF ATTORNEY GENERAL JOHN ASHCROFT

(Not Sure's Excluded)

"And how would you rate the job Attorney General John Ashcroft is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

	TREND		Positive*	Negative**
2004	August	%	42	44
	June	%	43	41
	April	%	40	45
	February	%	44	42
2003	December	%	51	37
	October	%	42	42
	August	%	48	39
	June	%	54	32
	April	%	57	30
	February	%	51	37
2002	November	%	51	33
	November	%	54	32
	October	%	53	32
	September	%	52	32
	August	%	53	34
	July	%	50	36
	June	%	52	33
	May	%	56	29
	April	%	61	24
	March	%	57	27
	February	%	59	26
	January	%	64	23
2001	December	%	65	23

* Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between August 10 and 15, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,012 adults (ages 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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Q415, Q425