Those Who Believe that We Were Misled by Government about Weapons of Mass Destruction and Links to Al Qaeda Jump to 60 Percent

A new Harris Poll finds a sharp increase in the proportion of adult Americans who believe that they were misled by the government’s statements about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction and Iraq’s links to Al Qaeda. A 60 percent majority now believes that "what we were told . . . was misleading," up from 51 percent in June. Just over a third (37%) still believes that what we were told was "generally accurate" but this is down from 44 percent in June. However, only a minority believes there was deliberate deception.

Replies to five other questions about Iraq were generally very similar to those given in June, and on most of them, attitudes are still quite evenly balanced, with more or less equal numbers supportive of, and critical of, the government’s positions.

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,012 adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive® between August 10 and 15, 2004.

Issues on which the administration still enjoys the support of a modest majority or plurality include:

• A 51% majority continues to believe that the government "tried to present the information" about weapons of mass destruction "accurately," seven points more than the 44% who believe the government "deliberately exaggerated the report . . . in order to increase support for the war."
  
  This 51% to 44% majority has not changed significantly since October last year.
  
• A 50% to 40% plurality still believes that the invasion of Iraq "strengthened . . . the war on terrorism," scarcely changed from the 52% to 38% who believed this in June.
  
• Replies to this question, like all the others here, are strongly polarized by party. While a big 75% to 19% majority of Republicans believes the invasion strengthened the war on terror, a 53% to 34% majority of Democrats believes it weakened it. Independents are almost evenly split.

Issues on which critics of the administration’s Iraq policies are in the majority include:

• A 54% to 43% majority does not believe that "the invasion of Iraq has helped to protect the United States from another terrorist attack."
  
• A 64% to 30% majority believes that "the invasion of Iraq, and recent events in Iraq, have made the United States less respected around the world."

As to the future, a 54 percent majority favors "bringing most of our troops home in the next year," compared to 40 percent who favor "keeping a large number of troops in Iraq until there is a stable government there."

Overall, these results show that neither President Bush nor his critics enjoy a strong advantage on the issues of Iraq and the war on terror. Furthermore, most of the attitudes measured have changed little because, it seems, most people made up their minds on Iraq many months ago and continue to believe the claims which support their position, almost regardless of new information and media coverage.

In so far as attitudes have changed this year, they have tended to reduce support for the president’s position. However, if the stability of most public attitudes on Iraq continues for the next two and a half months, the most important single issue may be the modest 50 to 40 percent plurality who believe that the invasion strengthened the war on terrorism.

"Do you believe that what we were told by the government before the Iraq war about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction and Iraq’s links to Al Qaeda, the terrorist organization, was generally accurate or misleading?"

Base: All Adults

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Do you believe that the U.S. government deliberately exaggerated the reports of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in order to increase support for war, or do you think it tried to present the information accurately?"

Base: All Adults

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Do you favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq until there is a stable government there OR bringing most of our troops home in the next year?"

Base: All Adults

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Do you think the invasion of Iraq strengthened or weakened the war on terrorism?"

Base: All Adults

"Do you think the invasion of Iraq has helped to protect the United States from another terrorist attack or not?"

Base: All Adults

"Do you think the invasion of Iraq, and recent events in Iraq, have made the United States much more respected, somewhat more respected, somewhat less respected, or much less respected around the world?"

Base: All Adults

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between August 10 and 15, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,012 adults (ages 18+). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

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