Bush’s Convention Bounce Vanishes as Race Tightens

The latest Harris Poll finds that Senator John Kerry and President George W. Bush are now enjoying almost equal levels of support. Immediately after the Republican convention in New York, several polls showed President Bush jumping ahead of Senator Kerry with a clear lead of between six and 11 percentage points. This "convention bounce" has now disappeared.

These are some of the results of a nationwide poll of 1,018 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive® between September 9 and 13, 2004. It seems that the short-term effects of the Republican convention have worn off. The poll shows Senator Kerry leading 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters. Obviously, this small lead is well within the possible sampling error of the survey (however, it would be incorrect to label even a one-point lead, as some media have done in the past, a "statistical dead heat").

One reason that President Bush is no longer ahead is that a slender 51 percent to 45 percent majority does not believe that he deserves to be re-elected.

Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"

Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"

Base: Likely Voters

"Based on who he is and his record, do you think George W. Bush deserves to be re-elected for another four years?"

Base: Likely Voters

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between September 9 and 13, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,018 adults (ages 18+), 803 of whom are likely voters. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of ±3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. The statistical precision for the sample of likely voters is ±4 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. population of likely voters had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

J22091

Q438, Q439, Q442