The Harris Poll^® #67, September 17, 2004

President Bush’s Ratings Slip to Lowest Level of His Presidency, According to Latest Harris Poll

President Bush’s ratings have slipped to 45 percent positive and 54 percent negative, the lowest ratings of his presidency, according to a new Harris Poll. These numbers compare to 50 percent positive, 49 percent negative in June and 48 percent positive, 51 percent negative in August. This downward trend no doubt helps to explain why the lead which the president enjoyed over Senator Kerry immediately after the Republican convention in New York – the so-called “convention bounce” – has now disappeared.

This is one of the results of a Harris Poll of 1,018 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive® between September 9 and 13, 2004.

This survey also tracked the ratings of other government leaders and of both parties in Congress. Some of the other findings are:

• Vice President Dick Cheney’s ratings – 40 percent positive, 54 percent negative – have not changed since August.
• Secretary of State Colin Powell’s ratings are down to 63 percent positive, 32 percent negative from 69 percent to 27 percent in August, but he is still by far the most popular member of the administration.
• Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s ratings are down very slightly to 43 percent positive, 50 percent negative. This is the first time his negative ratings have touched 50 percent.
• Attorney General John Ashcroft’s ratings – at 40 percent positive, 49 percent negative – are also down slightly since August, and his negative ratings have never been this high before.

The best news for Republicans in this poll is probably the fact that Republicans in Congress continue to receive somewhat better (or, more accurately, “less bad”) ratings, 38 percent positive and 56 percent negative, than the Democrats in Congress, 34 percent positive, 60 percent negative.

TABLE 1
POSITIVE RATINGS TRENDS SINCE 9/11/01: SUMMARY

Base: All Adults

Note: (NA) = Not Applicable

TABLE 2
PRESIDENT BUSH'S OVERALL JOB RATING
(Not Sure’s Excluded)
"How would you rate the job President George W. Bush is doing as president – excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

Base: All Adults

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 3
RATINGS OF VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY
(Not Sure's Excluded)
"And how would you rate the job Vice President Cheney is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 4
RATINGS OF SECRETARY OF STATE COLIN POWELL
(Not Sure's Excluded)
"And how would you rate the job Secretary of State Colin Powell is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 5
RATINGS OF SECRETARY OF DEFENSE DONALD RUMSFELD
(Not Sure’s Excluded)
"And how would you rate the job Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 6
RATINGS OF ATTORNEY GENERAL JOHN ASHCROFT
(Not Sure's Excluded)
"And how would you rate the job Attorney General John Ashcroft is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 7
RATINGS OF HOUSE SPEAKER DENNIS HASTERT – TREND
(Not Sure's Excluded)
"And how would you rate the job House Speaker Dennis Hastert is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 8
RATINGS OF SENATE MAJORITY LEADER BILL FRIST
(Not Sure's Excluded)
"And how would you rate the job Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor

TABLE 9
RATINGS OF REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS – TREND
(Not Sure’s Excluded)
"And how would you rate the job Republicans in Congress are doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 10
RATINGS OF DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS – TREND
(Not Sure’s Excluded)
"And how would you rate the job Democrats in Congress are doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All Adults

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between September 9 and 13, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,018 adults (ages 18+). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of ±3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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Q415, Q425