The Harris Poll^® #69, September 24, 2004

Majority of U.S. Adults Favors Continuing Ban on Sales of Assault Rifles, According to Latest Harris Poll

On September 14 a 10-year ban prohibiting the sales of assault rifles and high-capacity ammunition expired. These rifles and ammunition may now be purchased. However, a substantial majority (71%) of all U.S. adults favors continuation of this ban. Support for the ban is equally favored across all groups including Republicans, Democrats and Independents.

These are the results of The Harris Poll of 1,018 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive® between September 9 and 13, 2004.

The main findings of the survey are:

• A large majority (71%) favors continuation of the ban prohibiting the sales of assault rifles and high-capacity ammunition while 26 percent opposes continuing the ban.
• Overall, a 60 percent majority favors stricter gun control, with 32 percent wanting less strict control and 4 percent volunteering no change. This majority has declined since 2000 when 63 percent favored stricter gun control and in 1998 when a larger 69 percent favored it.

Republicans and Democrats hold very different views on the overall issue of making gun control stricter. Just under half (48%) of Republicans favor making gun control stricter and 41 percent favor making it less strict. This compares to Democrats who by 72 to 21 percent favor stricter gun control. U.S. adults who classify themselves as Independent feel that gun control should be made stricter (63% to 32%). Interestingly, this partisanship does not extend to the assault rifle ban. Over seven in 10 Republicans, Democrats and Independents all support the ban (ranging from 72-74%).

Impact on 2004 Election

As things stand now, gun control is unlikely to make much of an impact on the election. The Harris Poll finds that very few likely voters (less than 1%) volunteer gun control as an important issue for government to address. While Bush has regularly endorsed less strict gun control, Kerry, a gun owner and hunter, does not back the same stricter gun control measures as other Democratic candidates have in the past. On the assault rifle ban both major candidates, Bush and Kerry, have said that they favor continuation of the ban though this would require Congressional action, something that is very unlikely to happen in this election year.

TABLE 1
FAVOR STRICTER OR LESS STRICT GUN CONTROL
“In general, would you say you favor stricter gun control, or less strict gun control?”

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.

TABLE 2
FAVOR CONTINUATION OF BAN PROHIBITING SALES OF ASSAULT RIFLES
“A ban prohibiting the sales of assault rifles and high capacity ammunition magazines expires on September 14. Would you favor or oppose continuing this ban?”

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between September 9 and 13, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,018 adults (ages 18 years and more), 803 of whom are likely voters. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points for the overall sample. The statistical precision for the likely voters sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population of likely voters had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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