Public Perceptions of Likelihood of Future Terrorist Attack Leads to Continuing Support for Tough Surveillance Measures to Prevent Terrorism

A majority (61%) feels anti-terrorist programs have taken away only a little or none of their personal privacy.

On the third anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the U.S., two-thirds of U.S. adults (67%) believe it is somewhat or very likely that there will be a major terrorist attack in this country in the next twelve months. Given this perception, it is therefore not surprising that an overwhelming majority continue to support tough surveillance measures to prevent terrorist attacks. There is some public concern, however, about the way these increased powers might be used by law enforcement.

The majority of U.S. adults feel that the government’s anti-terrorist programs have taken only a little (26%) or none (35%) of their own personal privacy away. Furthermore, leading up to the November elections the Bush administration gets somewhat high marks for what it has done to prevent new terrorist attacks in the U.S.

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,018 adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive® between September 9 and 13, 2004.

Some of the key findings are:

• By 67 to 28 percent, a majority of adults feel that it is very (17%) or somewhat (50%) likely that there will be a major terrorist attack in next twelve months.
• The Bush administration receives a 62 to 37 percent positive rating on the job it has done in preventing a new terrorist attack. This is down from February when a 70 to 30 percent majority felt this way.
• Only 17 percent of U.S. adults feel that the government’s anti-terrorist program has taken quite a lot or a great deal of their own personal privacy away up slightly from 14 percent in February. Another 21 percent feel they’ve lost a moderate amount of privacy, similar to how they felt in February (22%).
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• Overall, a 77 percent majority feels confident that U.S. law enforcement agencies will use their expanded surveillance powers in a proper way. This is virtually unchanged from February though lower than the September 2001 results (87%).

Many of the questions in this survey have been asked on several occasions since the September 2001 attacks. It is not surprising that though most continue to show very strong support for tough surveillance measures, percentages are down from the marks taken right after September 2001.

Some other results are:

• Two-thirds (67%) percent favor "closer monitoring of banking and credit card transactions" up slightly from 64 percent in February (and down from 81 percent in September 2001).
• Six in ten (60%) favor "adoption of a national I.D. system for all U.S. citizens" up from February’s 56 percent (down from 68% in September 2001).
• Those who favor "law enforcement monitoring of Internet discussions" has increased significantly from 50 percent earlier this year to a current 59 percent. This is only somewhat lower than the 63 percent who felt this way in September 2001.
• Those who favor "expanded government monitoring of cell phones and email" have risen to 39 percent, with 56 percent opposed. In February this year, a somewhat lower 36 percent minority favored this.

Others with little change include:

• 83 percent continue to favor "stronger document and physical security checks for travelers," basically unchanged since February (93% in September 2001).
• 82 percent continue to support "expanded undercover activity to penetrate groups under suspicion," up from 80 percent in the February poll (93% in September 2001).
• 60 percent continue to support "expanded camera surveillance on streets and in public places," virtually unchanged since February (63% in September 2001).

Notwithstanding this strong support for tough surveillance measures and overall confidence that law enforcement will use its expanded powers in a proper way, majorities continue to have at least moderate reservations that judges, law enforcement agencies, Congress and the White House might abuse these powers in hypothetical situations. Specifically:

• 77 percent have high or moderate concerns that "judges who authorize investigations would not look closely enough at the justification of that surveillance."
• Three-quarters (74%) have at least moderate concern that "Congress would not include adequate safeguards for civil liberties."
• Almost seven in 10 (69%) have moderate to high concern that "the White House would not issue proper rules for legal due process for government surveillance programs."
• Over two-thirds (68%) have moderate or high concern that law enforcements agencies would "investigate legitimate political and social groups."

Commenting on these results, Dr. Alan Westin of Columbia University, and President of Privacy and American Business states: "Three years after 9/11, two-thirds to three-fourths of the public continue to register what I have called ‘rational ambivalence’ about current anti-terrorist programs. What is striking is that the public still worries that the Executive, Congress, and the courts are not laying in the kinds of specific civil liberties safeguards – even in anti-terrorist programs – that represent the fundamental American constitutional tradition."

"Here are some increased powers of investigation that law enforcement agencies might use when dealing with people suspected of terrorist activity, which would also affect our civil liberties. For each, please say if you would favor or oppose it."

Base: All Adults

(Continued)

"Now, here are some concerns that people might have about the way these increased powers might be used by law enforcement. Would you say you have high concern, moderate concern, not much concern, or no concern at all about each of the following possibilities?

Base: All Adults

CONFIDENCE THAT SURVEILLANCE POWERS IN PROPER WAY

"Overall, how confident do you feel that U.S. law enforcement will use its expanded surveillance powers in what you would see as a proper way, under the circumstances of terrorist threats? Would you say very confident, somewhat confident, not very confident, not confident at all?"

Base: All Adults

"How would you rate the job that the Bush Administration has done preventing a terrorist attack in the United States since September 11, 2001 – excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

Base: All Adults

"How much do you feel government anti-terrorist programs have taken your own personal privacy away since September 11, 2001?"

Base: All Adults

"How likely do you think it is that there will be a major terrorist attack in this country in the next twelve months?"

Base: All Adults

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between September 9 and 13, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,018 adults (ages 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

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