The Harris Poll® #82, October 22, 2004

The War in Iraq Edges the Economy as Most Important Issue for Government to Address, According to Latest Harris Poll

Less than two weeks before voters head to polls to vote, the top issues that the public wants government to address are the war in Iraq, the economy, health care and jobs. These haven’t changed much in the past few months. What has changed is that the war in Iraq has surpassed concern about the economy as the most important issue. Furthermore, President George W. Bush continues to be perceived as doing a better job in handling Iraq while the candidates split on handling the economy.

These are the results from the latest Harris Poll conducted by telephone by Harris Interactive® from October 14 to 16, 2004 among 1,016 U.S. adults, of whom 820 are likely voters.

Specifically, the survey found that when asked spontaneously to name their top issues, U.S. adults name the war in Iraq (35%) and the economy (28%) followed by health care (18%), employment (10%), Iraq (9%), and taxes (8%). Other top ten issues include terrorism (7%), education (7%), homeland security (6%) and national security (5%). The results are almost the same when we look at the sub-sample of likely voters as well.

Other results include:

  • When the top issues – Iraq and war on terror and the economy and jobs – are paired, likely voters split evenly (49% to 49%) on which would be more important in deciding who to vote for.
  • And on which candidate would fare better handling these, Bush barely edges Kerry (47% to 46%) on the economy and jobs though the President does much better (53% to 42%) on handling Iraq and the war on terror.
  • Likely Bush voters say that the war (35%) and the economy (29%) are the top issues followed by health care (11%) and terrorism (11%).
  • Likely Kerry voters also name the war (38%) and the economy (33%) as their top issues but place much more emphasis on health care (27%) and employment and jobs (13%).

Given the importance that voters are placing on the war in Iraq and the confidence that voters give to President Bush in handling it one might be tempted to alter the famous phrase used by President Clinton’s team and say that "It is Iraq and Fighting Terrorism, Stupid." However, the economy and other domestic issues are also on the minds of voters so it may not only be about the war. Nonetheless, views about the war and Iraq and who is perceived to be better at handling them could make the difference in a close election.

TABLE 1

WHICH IS MORE IMPORTANT ELECTION ISSUE, IRAQ OR ECONOMY?

If the presidential election were held today, which would be more important to you in deciding who to vote for – issues related to the economy and jobs or issues related to Iraq and the war on terror?"

Base: Likely Voters

 

June

Aug.

Sept.

Now

 

%

%

%

%

The economy and jobs

52

50

47

49

Iraq and the war on terror

41

43

48

49

Neither/Not sure

7

7

4

3

Note:

  1. Percentages may not add exactly to 100% due to rounding.
  2. June/August figures were based on responses from all adults.

TABLE 2

WHICH CANDIDATE WOULD DO BEST JOB ON IRAQ AND ECONOMY?

"And which candidate – George W. Bush, John Kerry or Ralph Nader – do you think would do the best job of handling ______ ?"

Base: Likely Voters

 

Economy and Jobs

Iraq and War on Terror

 

June

Aug.

Sept.

Now

June

Aug.

Sept.

Now

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

George W. Bush

44

41

43

47

54

53

51

53

John Kerry

38

46

49

46

29

37

39

42

Ralph Nader

7

5

3

3

5

2

2

2

Not sure/Refused

11

8

5

3

11

7

8

4

Note:

  1. Percentages may not add exactly to 100% due to rounding.
  2. June/August figures were based on responses from all adults.

TABLE 3

TOP TEN MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR GOVERNMENT to address

(Spontaneous, Unprompted Replies)

"What do you think are the two most important issues for the government to address?"

Base: All Adults or Likely Voters

 

All Adults

Likely Voters

Voting For:

Bush

Kerry
 

%

%

%

%

The war

35

36

35

38

The economy (non-specific)

28

31

29

33

Health care (not Medicare)

18

18

11

27

Employment/jobs

10

9

7

13

Iraq

9

9

8

9

Taxes

8

8

10

4

Terrorism

7

9

11

4

Education

7

6

4

10

Homeland/domestic security/public safety

6

7

9

4

National security

5

6

8

3

TABLE 4

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR GOVERNMENT to address

(Spontaneous, Unprompted Replies)

"What do you think are the two most important issues for the government to address?"

Base: All Adults

 

‘93

‘94

‘95

‘96

‘97

‘98

‘99

‘00

‘01

‘02

‘03

‘03

‘04

‘04

‘04

‘04

‘04

 

Jan

Feb

Feb

April

May

Jan

Feb

Aug

Dec

Dec

Jun

Oct

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sept

Oct
 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

The war

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

12

18

8

18

13

39

24

24

35

The economy (non-specific)

26

12

7

14

8

9

7

5

32

34

25

30

31

28

32

30

28

Health care (not Medicare)

31

45

25

16

10

11

12

15

5

10

14

13

16

10

17

21

18

Employment/ jobs

19

14

10

9

5

3

4

4

7

8

8

12

16

10

10

12

10

Iraq

*

*

*

*

*

*

1

-

-

11

3

10

6

4

6

5

9

Taxes

7

6

12

11

14

16

12

13

6

5

11

5

5

4

4

5

8

Terrorism

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

22

17

11

7

4

5

11

14

7

Education

10

6

10

14

15

14

21

25

12

11

13

11

11

8

9

12

7

Homeland/ domestic security/public safety

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

8

9

3

3

8

1

5

4

6

National security

X

X

X

X

X

X

2

2

6

3

6

7

4

5

6

6

5

Abortion

9

3

3

4

2

2

2

6

1

1

1

2

3

2

3

2

4

Social Security

x

x

x

X

6

6

24

16

3

2

4

2

2

5

3

4

3

Medicare

X

X

X

3

4

5

5

6

1

1

4

3

2

3

3

3

3

Foreign policy (non-specific)

6

4

2

3

3

5

4

3

2

4

2

4

6

2

2

2

3

Military/ defense

x

2

1

1

2

2

2

4

4

1

5

2

5

3

4

3

3

Immigration

*

*

2

2

2

1

*

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

1

2

2

Honesty/ Integrity/ Morals

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

2

Federal budget surplus/deficit

19

8

22

22

20

12

5

4

1

1

4

5

5

5

2

1

2

Domestic/ social issues (non-specific)

10

4

4

4

2

3

2

2

2

2

1

2

4

4

2

2

2

Medical research

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

2

1

*

*

1

*

2

Same sex marriage/ rights

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

1

*

2

1

1

Energy/oil prices

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

1

1

*

2

1

1

1

Programs for the elderly (not Medicare/ Social Security)

3

2

5

6

1

1

1

2

1

1

3

2

1

1

1

2

1

Prescription drug prices

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

1

1

1

1

*

1

1

1

Environment

3

1

1

1

3

2

3

3

1

3

2

1

4

3

2

1

1

Crime/violence

3

36

21

16

19

13

8

10

1

2

3

1

3

2

1

1

1

Human/civil/ women's rights

X

1

1

2

2

1

*

1

1

1

*

1

*

*

*

*

1

Morality/sex on TV

X

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

X

X

*

1

*

1

*

1

Ethics in government

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

1

1

1

1

1

1

*

*

1

Religion (decline of)

*

*

1

*

*

1

*

1

2

1

1

1

*

*

*

*

1

Family values (decline of)

*

*

2

2

2

1

2

1

*

*

1

1

2

1

1

1

1

Downsizing government

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

1

*

X

X

1

1

1

*

1

1

Gun control

*

3

2

1

1

1

1

4

*

*

*

1

1

1

*

*

1

Housing

-

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

1

1

1

*

*

1

1

*

Elections/ election process/ voter reform

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

1

1

2

1

2

1

*

School safety

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

2

1

*

1

2

*

*

(Programs for) the poor/ poverty

7

8

10

2

3

2

2

3

1

2

3

2

2

2

1

2

*

Peace/world peace/nuclear arms

2

1

1

3

1

3

3

1

2

2

3

2

1

1

2

*

*

Issues involving children

X

X

X

X

2

1

2

1

*

*

*

1

1

*

*

*

*

Welfare

2

7

16

13

14

8

4

2

1

1

3

2

2

2

1

1

*

Middle East peace process between Palestinians and Israel

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

2

2

2

1

*

*

1

*

*

Homelessness

-

-

-

3

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

2

2

*

Drugs

3

6

3

4

8

6

2

5

2

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

*

Corporate fraud/scandals

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

1

1

*

*

*

*

*

*

Race relations

X

X

X

X

X

2

*

1

1

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

X

Disability

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

1

*

1

1

*

*

X

Other1

5

8

7

7

8

19

2

19

3

8

8

3

3

12

5

1

8

Not sure/refused/ no issue

5

8

7

7

9

12

16

18

11

10

12

10

15

14

12

15

9

* = Less than 0.5%.

X = Not mentioned as specific issue.

1 Including judicial and legal issues.

Methodology

The Harris Poll® was conducted by telephone within the United States between October 14 and 17, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,016 adults, ages 18 and over, of whom 820 are likely voters. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size (1,016 or 820), one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population or likely voters had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

J22300A

Q410-Q413, Q446, Q447



©2004, Harris Interactive Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction prohibited without the express written permission of Harris Interactive.



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