Bush and Kerry Neck and Neck, According to Latest Harris Poll

The latest Harris Poll finds that the presidential election is now almost as close as it could possibly be, with Senator John Kerry and President George W. Bush virtually neck and neck (48% to 47%). This is better news for Senator Kerry than the previous poll which showed President Bush ahead of Senator Kerry.

(See Harris Poll #78, October 20 http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=507).

Today’s results are based on a nationwide Harris Poll of 2,493 likely voters conducted online by Harris Interactive^® between October 21 and 25, 2004.

In the last poll we reported that the size of President Bush's lead varied substantially (from 2 to 8 percentage points) depending on which definition of likely voters we used. In this poll we find no such difference. Senator Kerry holds a one point lead using each of our possible definitions.

Of course, all polls are subject to sampling and other possible sources of error, but this new Harris Poll appears to confirm the findings of some other polls that President Bush’s modest lead last week has greatly narrowed or has disappeared. This survey also finds very little difference between the numbers for the popular vote as a whole and in seventeen swing states. In both cases the election is much too close to call.

During the 2000 elections, both Harris Interactive’s online and telephone polls were extremely accurate. (http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm).

Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"

Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"

Base: Likely Voters*

* Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote and that (if they were old enough) they voted in 2000.

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

The Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between October 21 and 25, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 2,493 likely voters (Those registered to vote and absolutely certain to vote, and if they were old enough, they voted in 2000). Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 2 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population of likely voters had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This online sample was not a probability sample.

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Q455, Q457