Party Affiliation and Political Philosophy Show Little Change, According to National Harris Poll

U.S. adults are still almost equally divided between Democrats (34%) and Republicans (31%), with the Democrats maintaining a very small advantage. One quarter of all adults consider themselves Independents.

These are some of the results of Harris Poll surveys of a total of 10,012 U.S. adults conducted by telephone by Harris Interactive^® between January and December 2004.

The Harris Poll^® also found that conservatives continue to outnumber liberals by 36 to 18 percent but that the largest number of people think of themselves as moderates (41%). The remarkable thing about these numbers is how little they have changed over the past 30 to 40 years. Harris Interactive data over four decades show that the average numbers of moderates have remained at 40 or 41 percent, and that conservatives have only varied between 32 and 38 percent, while liberals have remained at a steady 18 percent since the 1970s.

However, the long term trend for party identification has changed over the last 40 years, with the Democratic lead declining from 21 percentage points in the 1970s, to 11 points in the 1980s, seven points in the 1990s, and (so far) five points in this decade.

"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself – a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

Base: All adults

NOTE: "Other" and "Not sure" responses excluded.

* Data are not available for 1968.

"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself – a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

Base: All adults

"How would you describe your own political philosophy – conservative, moderate, or liberal?"

Base: All adults

* Data are not available for the following years: 1969, 1970, 1971. 1973., 1993, and 1994.

"How would you describe your own political philosophy – conservative, moderate, or liberal?"

Base: All adults

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between January and December 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 10,012 adults aged 18 and over. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results for the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 1 percentage point of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.