The Harris Poll^® #21, March 17, 2005

Overall Confidence in Leaders of Major Institutions Declines Slightly

Confidence in the military falls sharply

Every year at this time of year, The Harris Poll^® measures the level of U.S. public confidence in the leaders of major institutions. Over the 38 years since the first survey was conducted, the public’s overall confidence has gone up or down and views about different institutions have also moved. The latest survey finds that, overall; confidence has slipped since last year with our "Confidence Index" falling two percentage points from 55 to the current 53.

This is the third year in a row that the Index has fallen. In 2002 it stood at 65 up dramatically from 55 in 2001. This increase was due to the "rallying around the flag" following September 11, 2001. However, since then, overall confidence has declined a bit each year and is actually at its lowest since 1998.

Attitudes toward leaders of specific institutions

The public’s views of specific institutions have not changed that much with one very important exception. Those having a great deal of confidence in the leadership of the military has fallen a staggering 15 percentage points since last year (from 62% to 47%). This is the largest one year decline in attitudes to an institution since The Harris Poll began measuring this. This steep decline is probably the result of the military’s handling of the events surrounding the treatment of Iraqi prisoners by U.S. military personnel at Abu Ghraib prison and public worry about the war in Iraq taking longer.

Despite this decline, confidence in the military’s leaders (47%) is still relatively high compared to the confidence the public affords most of the 16 institutions. Leaders of small businesses share top honors also at 47%. Other institutions that receive relatively high marks though somewhat lower include major educational institutions at 39% (up from 37%), the White House at 31% (no change from 2004), medicine at 29% (down slightly from 32%) and the U.S. Supreme Court at 29% (no change from 2004).

Changes to list of institutions

This year Harris Interactive^® added three institutions to our list (Small Business at 47%, Public Schools at 26%, and the Courts and the Justice System at 22%) and we removed one institution (the Executive Branch of the Federal Government). The "Harris Interactive Confidence Index" was re-calibrated to reflect these changes.

The bottom of the list

Those institutions which have the smallest number of people who have a "great deal of confidence" include Major Companies (17% up from 12% in 2004), Organized Labor (17% up from 15%), Congress (16% up from 13%), the Press (12% down from 15%) and Law firms (11% up from 10%),

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,012 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone between February 8 and 13, 2005 by Harris Interactive.

TABLE 1

CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS NOW (2005)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

		Great Deal	Only Some	Hardly Any	Not Sure/ Refused
Small business	%	47	47	6	1
The military	%	47	41	12	1
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	%	39	51	10	*
The White House	%	31	41	28	*
The U.S. Supreme Court	%	29	57	13	1
Medicine	%	29	52	18	1
Organized religion	%	27	49	23	*
Public schools	%	26	56	17	*
The courts and the justice system	%	22	58	20	1
Major companies	%	17	59	24	1
Organized labor	%	17	56	24	2
Congress	%	16	60	24	*
Television news	%	16	58	25	*
Wall Street	%	15	59	23	2
The press	%	12	56	32	*
Law firms	%	11	55	33	1

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.

* means less than 0.5%

TABLE 2-A

CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1992-2005)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

(Those saying "a great deal of confidence")

Those with a great deal of confidence in:	1992	1993	1994	1995		1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
	%	%	%	%		%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Small business	x	x	x	x	x		x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	47
The military	50	57	39	43	47		37	44	54	48	44	71	62	62	47
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	29	23	25	27	30		27	37	37	36	35	33	31	37	39
The White House	25	23	18	13	15		15	20	22	21	21	50	40	31	31
The U.S. Supreme Court	30	26	31	32	31		28	37	42	34	35	41	34	29	29
Medicine	22	22	23	26	29		29	38	39	44	32	29	31	32	29
Organized religion	11	x	x	24	x		20	25	27	26	25	23	19	27	27
Public schools	x	x	x	x	x		x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	26
The courts and the justice system	x	x	x	x	x		x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	22
The executive branch of the federal government	x	15	12	9	12		12	17	17	18	20	33	26	23	X
Major companies	10	16	19	21	21		18	21	23	28	20	16	13	12	17
Organized labor	11	x	x	8	x		9	13	15	15	15	11	14	15	17
Congress	16	12	8	10	10		11	12	12	15	18	22	20	13	16
Television news	12	23	20	16	21		18	26	23	20	24	24	21	17	16
Wall Street	13	13	15	13	17		17	18	30	30	23	19	12	17	15
The press	x	15	13	11	14		11	14	15	13	13	16	15	15	12
Law firms	13	11	8	9	11		7	11	10	12	10	13	12	10	11
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	45	47	43	43		47	42	54	60	59	55	65	57	55	53

________________

X = Not asked.

TABLE 2-B

CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1981-1991)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

(Those saying "a great deal of confidence")

Those with a great deal of confidence in:	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991
Those with a great deal of confidence in:	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Small business	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The military	28	31	35	45	32	36	35	33	32	43	47
Major educational institutions such as colleges & universities	34	30	36	40	35	34	36	34	32	35	x
The White House	28	20	23	42	30	19	23	17	20	14	15
The U.S. Supreme Court	29	25	33	35	28	32	30	32	28	32	23
Medicine	37	32	35	43	39	33	36	40	30	35	21
Organized religion	22	20	22	24	21	22	16	17	16	20	X
The executive branch of the federal government	24	x	X	x	19	18	19	16	17	14	X
Public Schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The courts and justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Major companies	16	18	18	19	17	16	21	19	16	9	9
Organized labor	12	8	10	12	13	11	11	13	10	18	14
Congress	16	13	20	28	16	21	20	15	16	14	x
Television news	24	24	24	28	23	27	29	28	25	27	20
Wall Street	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	8	21	21
The press	16	14	19	18	16	19	19	18	18	12	9
Law firms	x	x	12	17	12	14	15	13	X	X	X
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	51	46	53	63	51	51	53	50	46	50	45

________________

X = Not asked

TABLE 2-C

CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1966-1980)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

(Those saying "a great deal of confidence")

Those with a great deal of confidence in:	1966	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980
Those with a great deal of confidence in:	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Small Business	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The military	61	27	35	40	33	24	23	27	29	29	28
Major educational institutions such as colleges & universities	61	37	33	44	40	36	31	37	41	33	36
The White House	X	X	X	18	28	x	11	31	14	15	18
The U.S. Supreme Court	50	23	28	33	40	28	22	29	29	28	27
Medicine	73	61	48	57	50	43	42	43	42	30	34
Organized religion	41	27	30	36	32	32	24	29	24	20	22
The executive branch of the federal government	41	23	27	19	28	13	11	23	14	17	17
Public Schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The Courts and Justice System	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Major companies	55	27	27	29	21	19	16	20	22	18	16
Organized labor	22	14	15	20	18	14	10	14	15	10	14
Congress	42	19	21	x	18	13	9	17	10	18	18
Television news	X	X	X	41	31	35	28	28	35	37	29
Wall Street	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	12
The press	29	18	18	30	25	26	20	18	23	28	19
Law firms	X	X	X	24	18	16	12	14	18	16	13
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	100	58	59	69	64	55	44	55	55	50	49

________________

X = Not asked

TABLE 3

CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS; AVERAGE FOR INDEX IN EACH DECADE

	1960s		1970s		1980s		1990s		2000s
					1980	49	1990	50	2000	59
			1971	58	1981	51	1991	45	2001	55
			1972	59	1982	46	1992	45	2002	65
			1973	69	1983	53	1993	47	2003*	57
			1974	64	1984	63	1994	43	2004	55
			1975	55	1985	51	1995	43	2005	53
	1966	100	1976	44	1986	51	1996	47
			1977	55	1987	53	1997	42
			1978	55	1988	50	1998	54
			1979	50	1989	46	1999	60
AVERAGE FOR DECADE		100		57		51		48		57

*December 2002.

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 8 and 13, 2005 among a nationwide cross section of 1,012 adults aged 18 and over. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

The Harris Interactive Confidence in Leadership Index measures changes in the public’s confidence in various institutions. It is derived in the following manner:

The index is based on the mean value of the items asked.
All items have equal weight.
The year 1966, the first year the items were asked, was set as a reference year for the index and assigned a score of 100.
In order to yield a score of 100 in 1966, the mean value of the original ten items was multiplied by a factor of 2.11. This same factor was then applied to the mean score in subsequent years, as long as the same items were asked.
Whenever a new item(s) is added, the multiplication factor is changed so that the new item has no effect on that year’s score. The new factor is derived by re-calculating the average from last year’s items using the percentages from this year for the new items that weren’t asked last year. In order to calculate the new factor last year’s Index score is divided by the new average. This factor is applied to average for the current year. (The current factor is 2.13).
In years when an item included in a previous year is not asked, it is assumed for calculation purposes that no change has occurred in that item since the last time it was asked.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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