Why So Many People Oppose the President’s Social Security Proposals

Many polls have reported that less than 40 percent of all adults approve of, or support, President Bush’s proposals for Social Security. But other polls show that rather more people – 50 percent or more in some polls – like the idea of allowing people to invest part of their social security money in stocks or bonds. A key question therefore is "why do many people like the proposal but oppose the president on this issue?"

A new Harris Poll appears to answer this question. Many people don’t trust the president’s motives. The president talks about saving and strengthening Social Security, but only 36 percent of U.S. adults believe that this is his real motive. Half (49%) of all adults believe that his real agenda is not to save and strengthen Social Security but to dismantle it. There is clearly a widely held view that many Republicans, including President Bush, want to eliminate or weaken entitlement programs. People who believe that the president’s real agenda is to dismantle Social Security do not trust him enough to implement the personal accounts option, even if they like it.

These are the results of a new Harris Poll of 2,322 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive^® between May 4 and 10, 2005.

This survey also finds that a 59 to 34 percent majority continues to disapprove of the president’s position on Social Security, virtually unchanged from how the public felt in March. And, as in the March survey, public opposition to the president’s position on Social Security contrasts with majorities who favor the president’s positions on simplifying the tax code and making his tax cuts permanent, and the plurality who supports the president’s position on law reform.

The only significant changes since March are that the pluralities which oppose the president’s positions on two issues have increased. Those opposing the president’s positions on energy policy have increased from 45 to 50 percent. And those opposed to the president’s environmental policies have increased from 47 to 51 percent.

"Do you think that President Bush’s real agenda is to save and strengthen Social Security or to dismantle Social Security as we know it?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

"How much do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s positions on the following issues?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

"Approve" includes "strongly" or "somewhat" approve.

"Disapprove" includes "strongly" or "somewhat" disapprove.

Methodology
The Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between May 4 and 10, 2005 among a nationwide cross section of 2,322 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

In theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results for the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This online sample is not a probability sample.

J24152
Q500, Q700