Clear Majority of Adults Favor Bringing Most Troops Home from Iraq in Next Year, Says Latest U.S. Harris Poll

As recently as November 2004, a slim majority of U.S. adults favored keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq. However, the latest Harris Poll finds that the American public has shifted its views and now a clear 63 percent majority favors bringing most American troops home in the next year. This is the highest level that has been measured since The Harris Poll^® began asking this question in October 2003. At the same time, many Americans believe that life in Iraq is improving.

These are some of the results of a new Harris Poll of 1,015 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive^® between June 7 and 12, 2005.

Other findings include:

• By 63 to 33 percent, a substantial majority of U.S. adults favor bringing most American troops home in the next year. This is an increase from the 60 to 40 percent who felt this way in April 2005. By political party identification, Republicans favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq by 55 to 40 percent. However, Democrats (by 79 to 18%) and Independents (by 64 to 30%) favor bringing most troops home.

• About half of the public (51 to 41%) is not confident that Iraq will be "successful in developing a stable and reasonably democratic government." This is a slight decrease from April when a 55 to 43 percent majority felt this way.

Despite the numbers who may not be optimistic about stability of the Iraqi government, the perception by many is that life for Iraqi civilians is improving.

• By 68 to 27 percent, the American public feels that overall life for Iraqis is getting better (17% say much better and 50% say somewhat better).

• This also applies to the overall infrastructure of Iraq. Six in ten adults (61%) feel that it is getting better (14% say much better and 46% say somewhat better) while 29 percent say it is getting worse.

• Furthermore, concerning the security of Iraqi civilians, by 56 to 38 percent U.S. adults also feel this is getting better.

Finally, the American public is split on the issue of whether the insurgents in Iraq are being contained. Forty-two percent of adults think that the insurgents are being contained by security forces though an equal 41 percent feel that the insurgents are getting the upper hand. Almost one in five (18%) are not sure one way or another.

Overall while many Americans clearly have concerns about the length of time American troops are stationed in Iraq, the American public also acknowledges that life for Iraqis is improving at least to a limited degree.

"Do you favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq until there is a stable government there OR bringing most of our troops home in the next year?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Do you favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq until there is a stable government there OR bringing most of our troops home in the next year?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Do you think the invasion of Iraq strengthened or weakened the war on terrorism?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Are you confident that Iraq will be successful in developing a stable and reasonably democratic government?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"For each of the following, please indicate whether you feel the situation is getting much better, somewhat better, somewhat worse, or much worse?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Do you believe the insurgents in Iraq are being contained by security forces or are they getting the upper hand?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between June 7 and 12, 2005 among a nationwide cross section of 1,015 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. The sampling error for Republicans (322), Democrats (337) and Independents (223) is higher and varies. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

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