Pessimism about Iraq Continues to Increase, According to Latest Harris Poll

A new Harris Poll finds that some perceptions of the situation in Iraq have continued to become more gloomy, while others have not changed much, over the last two months.

Perceptions, and attitudes, which have become more negative since June include:

• An increase from 41 to 50 percent in those who believe "the insurgents are getting the upper hand over the security forces."
• An increase in the number who believe the "overall life for Iraqis is getting worse" from 27 to 31 percent.
• An increase from 29 to 35 percent in those who believe the "overall infrastructure of Iraq" is getting worse.
• An increase from 38 to 46 percent in those who believe the "security of Iraqi civilians" is getting worse.

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,217 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive^® between August 9 and 16, 2005.

This Harris Poll also finds a substantial change on two other measures but, as these questions were last asked in June and November 2004, we do not know when the changes occurred or how much they have changed recently:

• Those who believe that events in Iraq "have made the United States less respected around the world" have increased from 62 percent in June 2004 to 68 percent now.
• Those who believe "the invasion of Iraq has helped to protect the United States from another terrorist attack" have declined from 46 percent last November to 38 percent now.

However, not all indicators of support for the war in Iraq have declined since June 2005:

• Those who favor "bringing most of our troops home in the next year" is only slightly lower now then it was (61% now compared to 63% in June).
• Those who think the "invasion of Iraq has strengthened the war on terrorism" are virtually unchanged (44% now compared to 43% in June).
• Those who are "confident that Iraq will be successful in developing a stable and reasonably democratic government" are virtually unchanged (40% now compared to 41% in June).

Overall – depending on the specific question – only about 40 percent of Americans now hold positive views of U.S. policy in Iraq while 50 to 60 percent hold negative opinions. The exception to this is that majorities (from 51% to 65%), albeit declining majorities, think the situation for Iraqis (their lives, their infrastructure, and their security) is getting better.

"Do you favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq until there is a stable government there OR bringing most of our troops home in the next year?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding.

"Do you think the invasion of Iraq strengthened or weakened the war on terrorism?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding.

"Are you confident that Iraq will be successful in developing a stable and reasonably democratic government?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding.

"For each of the following, please indicate whether you feel the situation is getting much better, somewhat better, somewhat worse, or much worse?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding.

"Do you believe the insurgents in Iraq are being contained by security forces or are they getting the upper hand?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding.

"Do you think the invasion of Iraq has helped to protect the United States from another terrorist attack or not?"

Base: All Adults

"Do you think the invasion of Iraq, and recent events in Iraq, have made the United States much more respected, somewhat more respected, somewhat less respected, or much less respected around the world?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding.

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between August 9 and 16, 2005 among a nationwide cross section of 1,217adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

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