The Harris Poll^® #5, January 13, 2006

Democrats Start in the Lead as Election Year Dawns

President Bush’s job approval rating rebounds to 43 percent positive

With mid-term elections less than a year away, a new Harris Poll finds that Republicans may have their work cut out for them. According to the poll, if the election for Congress were held today, more than two in five (43%) adults would vote for the Democratic candidate, while one-third (34%) would vote for the Republican candidate, 14 percent would vote for someone else, and nine percent are undecided.

These are results from the latest Harris Poll of 1,003 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone between January 6 and 9, 2006 by Harris Interactive^®.

Other interesting findings regarding the congressional ballot include:

There is currently a significant gender gap with women strongly supporting the Democratic candidate (48% would support the Democratic candidate and 34% would support the Republican candidate) and men more divided (37% would support the Democratic candidate and 34% would support the Republican candidate).
Another issue the Republican Party is faced with is that their candidate shows signs of weakness among both conservatives (51% would vote for the Republican candidate) and moderates (2%), two important segments of their coalition. On the other hand, a Democratic candidate currently draws 66 percent of the liberal vote and 47 percent of the moderate vote.
The Democratic candidate also appears to have a stronger commitment among its base than does the Republican candidate (83% of Democrats would support their candidate vs. 78% of Republicans would support their candidate).

Presidential ratings

The latest Harris Poll also finds that President George W. Bush’s job approval ratings have rebounded from their record low measured in November 2005. The president’s ratings are now 43 percent positive, 56 percent negative, up from his November ratings of 34 percent positive, 65 percent negative. The president’s job approval ratings are significantly better than Congress’s current ratings of 25 percent positive and 72 percent negative.

Right direction or wrong track

Views about the direction in which the country is going do not appear to be quite as negative as they were this past November. While a majority of adults still believe the country has gotten off on the wrong track (54% think the country has gotten off on the wrong track, while 33% say things are going in the right direction), this has improved from November when more than two-thirds (68%) thought the country had gotten off on the wrong track and 27 percent thought it was going in the right direction.

Important issues

One thing that has remained somewhat constant is what the American public views as the most important issues for the government to address. Similar to the November poll findings, "The war" (now at 26%), the economy (17%), healthcare (11%), Iraq (7%), taxes (7%) and education (6%) continue to be among the most important issues U.S. adults believe the government should address.

TABLE 1

PRESIDENT BUSH'S OVERALL JOB RATING

(Not Sure’s Excluded)

"How would you rate the job President George W. Bush is doing as president – excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

Base: All Adults

	TREND		Positive*	Negative**
2006	January	%	43	56
2005	November	%	34	65
	August	%	40	58
	June	%	45	55
	April	%	44	56
	February	%	48	51
2004	November	%	50	49
	October	%	51	49
	September	%	45	54
	August	%	48	51
	June	%	50	49
	April	%	48	51
	February	%	51	48
2003	December	%	50	49
	October	%	59	40
	August	%	57	41
	June	%	61	36
	April	%	70	29
	February	%	52	46
2002	December	%	64	35
	November	%	65	33
	October	%	64	35
	September	%	68	30
	August	%	63	37
	July	%	62	37
	June	%	70	28
	May	%	74	25
	April	%	75	23
	March	%	77	22
	February	%	79	20
	January	%	79	19
2001	December	%	82	17
	November	%	86	12
	October	%	88	11
	August	%	52	43
	July	%	56	39
	June	%	50	46
	May	%	59	35
	March	%	49	38
	February	%	56	26

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 2
JOB RATINGS – BY PARTY ID AND POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY

(Not Sure’s Excluded)

"How would you rate the job (President George W. Bush /Congress) is doing– excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

Base: All Adults

		Party ID			Political Philosophy
	Total	Republican	Democrat	Independent	Conservative	Liberal	Moderate
	n=1,003	n=358	n=410	n=78***	n=505	n=324	n=64***
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
President Bush
Positive*	43	75	17	37	59	21	25
Negative**	56	24	82	58	39	77	75

Congress
Positive*	25	33	17	21	30	20	19
Negative**	72	65	80	75	67	79	79

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

*** Small base. Data should only be used directionally.

TABLE 3
CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS - BY GENDER

"If the election for Congress were being held today,would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democraticcandidate?"

Base: All Adults

		Gender
	Total	Men	Women
	n=1,003	n=383	n=520
	%	%	%
Republican	34	34	34
Democratic	43	37	48
Other	14	19	10
Undecided*	9	11	8

*Undecided = No preference /don’t know / refused

TABLE 4
CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULS - BY POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY

"If the election for Congress were being held today,would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democraticcandidate?"

Base: All Adults

		Political Philosophy
	Total	Conservative	Moderate	Liberal
	n=1,003	n=505	n=64**	n=324
	%	%	%	%
Republican	34	51	2	16
Democratic	43	29	47	66
Other	14	12	32	12
Undecided*	9	8	19	7

*Undecided = No preference /don’t know / refused

** Small base. Data should be used directionally.

TABLE 5
CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS - BY PARTY ID

"If the election for Congress were being held today,would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democraticcandidate?"

Base: All Adults

		Party ID
	Total	Republican	Independent	Democrat
	n=1,003	n=358	n=78**	n=410
	%	%	%	%
Republican	34	78	15	4
Democratic	43	7	10	83
Other	14	9	39	8
Undecided*	9	5	36	4

*Undecided = No preference /don’t know / refused

** Small base. Data should be used directionally.

TABLE 6
RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK

(No Opinion’s, Not Sure’s and Decline to Answer’sExcluded)

"Generally speaking, would you say things in the countryare going in the right direction or have they pretty seriously gotten off on thewrong track?"

Base: All Adults

	TREND		Right Direction	Wrong Track
2006	January	%	33	54
2005	November	%	27	68
	August	%	37	59
	June	%	38	55
	January	%	46	48
2004	September	%	38	57
	June	%	35	59
2003	December	%	35	57
	June	%	44	51
2002	December	%	36	57
	June	%	46	48
2001	December	%	65	32
	June	%	43	52
	January	%	46	39
2000	October	%	50	41
	June	%	40	51
	January	%	50	38
1999	June	%	37	55
	March	%	47	45
1998	December	%	43	51
	June	%	48	44
1997	December	%	39	56
	April	%	36	55
1996	December	%	38	50
	June	%	29	64
1995	December	%	26	62
	June	%	24	65
1994	December	%	29	63
	June	%	28	65

TABLE 7
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR GOVERNMENT to address

(Spontaneous, Unprompted Replies)

"What do you think are the two most importantissues for the government to address?"

Base: All Adults

	‘94	‘95	‘96	‘97	‘98	‘99	‘00	‘01	‘02	‘03	‘04	‘04	‘05	‘05	‘05	‘05	‘06
	Feb	Feb	April	May	Jan	Feb	Aug	Dec	Dec	Jun	Feb	Oct	Feb	Jun	Aug	Nov	Jan
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
(The) war	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	12	18	8	13	35	30	24	41	34	26
The economy (non-specific)	12	7	14	8	9	7	5	32	34	25	31	28	11	18	19	13	17
Iraq / (Saddam Hussein)	*	*	*	*	*	1	-	-	11	3	6	9	11	7	6	13	7
Healthcare (not Medicare)	45	25	16	10	11	12	15	5	10	14	16	18	14	10	11	11	11
Education	6	10	14	15	14	21	25	12	11	13	11	7	7	7	8	10	6
Taxes	6	12	11	14	16	12	13	6	5	11	5	8	5	5	5	9	7
Gas and oil prices	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	*	1	1	6	10	8	2
Federal budget surplus/deficit	8	22	22	20	12	5	4	1	1	4	5	2	10	4	2	7	4
Terrorism	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	22	17	11	4	7	4	6	7	6	4
Immigration	*	2	2	2	1	*	1	1	1	2	1	2	2	4	3	6	4
(Programs for) the poor/ poverty	8	10	2	3	2	2	3	1	2	3	2	*	2	3	4	5	3
Social security	x	x	X	6	6	24	16	3	2	4	2	4	37	19	10	4	6
Employment/jobs	14	10	9	5	3	4	4	7	8	8	16	10	6	5	3	4	7
Disaster relief/Hurricane Relief	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	X	x	x	x	X	x	x	x	4	1
Energy	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	*	1	1	1	4	3	3
National security	X	X	X	X	X	2	2	6	3	6	4	5	4	3	2	3	2
Domestic/social issues (non-specific)	4	4	4	2	3	2	2	2	2	1	4	2	2	3	2	3	1
Medicare	X	X	3	4	5	5	6	1	1	4	2	3	3	2	2	3	3
Ethics in government	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	1	1	1	1	1	*	1	1	3	1
Homeland/domestic security/public safety	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	8	9	3	8	6	3	3	2	2	2
Environment	1	1	1	3	2	3	3	1	3	2	4	1	1	2	3	2	1
Crime/violence	36	21	16	19	13	8	10	1	2	3	3	1	*	2	3	2	2
Foreign policy (non-specific)	4	2	3	3	5	4	3	2	4	2	6	3	3	2	2	2	3
Military/defense	2	1	1	2	2	2	4	4	1	5	5	3	3	2	1	2	4
Abortion	3	3	4	2	2	2	6	1	1	1	3	4	2	4	2	1	2
Welfare	7	16	13	14	8	4	2	1	1	3	2	*	1	1	3	1	2
Judicial/Legal Issues	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	*	*	*	2	1	*
Drugs	6	3	4	8	6	2	5	2	3	3	3	*	*	*	2	1	2
Honesty/Integrity/Moral Values	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	2	1	*	2	1	*
Inflation	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	1	1
Same sex marriage/rights	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	1	1	*	1	1	1
Peace/world peace/nuclear arms	1	1	3	1	3	3	1	2	2	3	1	*	1	2	1	1	2
Homelessness	-	-	3	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	*	1	1	1	1	4
Medical research	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	2	*	2	1	1	1	1	1
School safety	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	2	*	*	-	1	1	1	*
Religion (decline of)	*	1	*	*	1	*	1	2	1	1	*	1	*	1	*	1	1
Anthrax/Biological attack	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	*	X	-	1	*	1	*
Downsizing government	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	*	X	X	1	1	*	1	*	1	1
CIA leak	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	X	x	x	x	X	x	x	x	1	X
FEMA	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	X	x	x	x	X	x	x	x	1	*
Bush/president	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	X	x	x	x	X	x	x	x	1	1
Middle East peace process between Palestinians and Israel	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	2	2	2	*	*	*	*	1	*	*
Human/civil/women's rights	1	1	2	2	1	*	1	1	1	*	*	1	1	1	1	*	1
Family values (decline of)	*	2	2	2	1	2	1	*	*	1	2	1	-	1	1	*	*
Election/Voter reform	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	1	1	*	X	*	1	*	1
Other1	8	7	7	8	19	2	19	3	8	8	3	8	21	2	1	1	3
Not sure/refused/no issue	8	7	7	9	12	16	18	11	10	12	15	9	7	14	8	6	6

* = Less than 0.5%.

X = Not mentioned as specific issue.

^{1 Including government/politics (nonspecific), housing, gun control,
issues involving children, corporate scandals/fraud, and programs for the
elderly (not Medicare/Social Security)

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was
conducted by telephone within the United States between January 6 and 9, 2006
among a nationwide cross section of 1,003 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for
age, sex, race, education, and region were weighted where necessary to align
them with their actual proportions in the population.
In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95
percent certainty that the overall results have a sampling error of plus or
minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult
population had been polled with complete accuracy. Sampling error for the
various sub-samples listed in the tables above is higher and varies.
Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or
surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling
error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording
and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and
screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors
that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National
Council on Public Polls.

J26622
QA1, QA2, QA3, QA4, QA5}

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