The Harris Poll^® #36, May 9, 2006

Americans Look into the Crystal Ball: What is Likely to Happen in the Next 10 Years?

Adults think a major new war is more likely to happen than a woman becoming U.S. president, and they think a major stock market crash is less likely than both

A new Harris Poll finds that about half of all U.S. adults think it is likely or very likely that there will be a major new war involving many American soldiers (52%) a major terrorist attack like 9/11 in the United States (49%) in the next 10 years. Slightly fewer adults (45%) think that it is likely or very likely that Social Security benefits will be eliminated or sharply reduced, while slightly more than one-third (35%) think it likely or very likely that we will see a woman become president. Approximately one in six (16%) thinks it is likely or very likely that there will be a stock market crash like the one that happened in 1929.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,302 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive^® between March 17 and 21, 2006.

While substantial numbers of adults think that some of these events are likely, far fewer adults think that any of these are very likely to happen:

A major new war involving many American soldiers (19%)
Social Security benefits will be eliminated or sharply reduced (19%)
A major terrorist attack like 9/11 in the United States (17%)
A woman becomes president of the United States (13%)
A stock market crash like 1929 (5%)

And, only minorities think that these are not at all likely to happen in the next 10 years:

A stock market crash like 1929 (40%)
A woman becomes president of the United States (21%)
Social Security benefits will be eliminated or sharply reduced (19%)
A major terrorist attack like 9/11 in the United States (9%)
A major new war involving many American soldiers (9%)

TABLE 1

LIKELIHOOD OF FIVE THINGS HAPPENING IN NEXT 10 YEARS

"How likely do you think each of the following to happen in the next 10 years?"

Base: All Adults

		Very Likely or Likely (NET)	Very Likely	Likely	Somewhat Likely	Not At All Likely
A major new war involving many American soldiers	%	52	19	32	40	9
A major terrorist attack like 9/11 in the U.S.	%	49	17	32	43	9
Social Security benefits will be eliminated or very sharply reduced	%	45	19	26	36	19
A woman becomes president of the U.S.	%	35	13	23	44	21
A stock market crash like 1929	%	16	5	11	43	40

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between March 17 and 21, 2006 among 2,302 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.

With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.

With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 2,302 adults one could say with a 95 percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- 2 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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Harris Interactive Inc. 05/06