The Harris Poll^®56, July 20, 2006

Democrats Increase Lead over Republicans in Race for Congress

Mood of the nation still favors challenger campaigns

With mid-term elections now less than four months away, a new Harris Poll finds that Democrats have widened their lead over the Republicans in the race for control of Congress. Results show that if the election for Congress were held today, more than two in five (44%) adults would vote for the Democratic candidate, while about one-third (31%) would vote for the Republican candidate, 17 percent would vote for someone else, and just seven percent are undecided.

These are results from the latest Harris Poll of 1,002 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone between July 7 and 10, 2006 by Harris Interactive^®.

Other interesting findings regarding the congressional ballot include:

With a margin of 13 percentage points, the Democrats’ lead over the Republicans has increased from a four-point lead in April and 11-point lead in January.
The Democrats lead among nearly every demographic subgroup examined. The lone exception is college graduates (37% Republican, 34% Democrat, and 21% other), where they are essentially tied with Republicans. The Republican candidate for Congress also faces difficulty among some traditionally supportive groups such as men (33% Republican, 43% Democrat), married adults (35% Republican, 40% Democrat), and more affluent adults (those with a household income of $60K or more: 37% Republican, 43% Democrat).
Another issue facing the Republican Party lies with support among conservatives (48% would vote for the Republican candidate, 32% Democratic candidate, and 15% another candidate) and moderates (25% Republican, 50% Democrat, and 18% other), two important segments of their coalition. On the other hand, a Democratic candidate currently draws 68 percent of the liberal vote compared to 13 percent for Republicans and 12 percent for another candidate.
The Democratic candidate appears to garner slightly stronger support among its base than does the Republican candidate (86% of Democrats would support their candidate vs. 82% of Republicans would support their candidate).
True to their label, Independents show no real preference with 35 percent supporting the Democrat, 25 percent the Republican, and 30 percent another candidate.

Right direction or wrong track

The mood of the nation is essentially unchanged since our last Harris Poll. Currently, 28 percent of U.S. adults think that things are going in the right direction while 61 percent believe the country has gotten off on the wrong track. In June the figures were 28 percent right direction and 64 percent wrong track. Generally speaking, when a majority of adults believe things are on the wrong track they are more likely to consider challengers to incumbent officeholders in elections. Combined with the voter preference for Congress, continued negative mood about the nation could put Republican control of Congress in question.

Presidential ratings

President Bush’s job approval rating is only marginally better than it was a month ago. Two-thirds of U.S. adults still have a negative view of the President’s job performance (65%) while 34 percent are positive. This compares to 67 percent negative and 33 percent positive in June. A majority of adults across demographic subgroups have a negative opinion of the president’s job handling.

The president still has some problems with his base supporters. While his job standing has improved among Republicans, rising from 68 percent in June to 74 percent currently, he is not faring as well among conservatives. Slightly less than half of self-identified conservative adults have a positive impression of President Bush’s job handling (46%).

Important issues

Concern about the war in Iraq continues to dominate the issue agenda and is the only issue which shows a significant increase in mentions. Concern about the war now stands at 32 percent, up from 27 percent last month. Mentions of the economy (15%) and immigration (13%) form a second tier of important issues for the government to address. New to the list this month is concern about North Korea (2%), which could be a result of the missile testing by that country just before the survey was conducted.

TABLE 1

PRESIDENT BUSH'S OVERALL JOB RATING

(Excludes Not Sure Responses)

"How would you rate the overall job President George W. Bush is doing as president – excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

Base: All Adults

	TREND		Positive*	Negative**
2006	July	%	34	65
	June	%	33	67
	May	%	29	71
	April	%	35	63
	March	%	36	64
	February	%	40	58
	January	%	43	56
2005	November	%	34	65
	August	%	40	58
	June	%	45	55
	April	%	44	56
	February	%	48	51
2004	November	%	50	49
	October	%	51	49
	September	%	45	54
	August	%	48	51
	June	%	50	49
	April	%	48	51
	February	%	51	48
2003	December	%	50	49
	October	%	59	40
	August	%	57	41
	June	%	61	36
	April	%	70	29
	February	%	52	46
2002	December	%	64	35
	November	%	65	33
	October	%	64	35
	September	%	68	30
	August	%	63	37
	July	%	62	37
	June	%	70	28
	May	%	74	25
	April	%	75	23
	March	%	77	22
	February	%	79	20
	January	%	79	19
2001	December	%	82	17
	November	%	86	12
	October	%	88	11
	August	%	52	43
	July	%	56	39
	June	%	50	46
	May	%	59	35
	March	%	49	38
	February	%	56	26

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 2
PRESIDENT JOB RATING - BY PARTY ID

(Positive* Ratings)

"How would you rate the overall job President George W.Bush is doing as president?"

Base: All Adults

	Total	Party ID
	Total	Republican	Independent	Democrat
	%	%	%	%
July	34	74	23	14
June	33	68	27	14
May	29	67	19	10

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

TABLE 3
PRESIDENT JOB RATING - BY POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY

(Positive* Ratings)

"How would you rate the overall job President George W.Bush is doing as president?"

Base: All Adults

	Total	Political Philosophy
	Total	Conservative	Moderate	Liberal
	%	%	%	%
July	34	46	29	21
June	33	55	28	13
May	29	46	24	10

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

TABLE 4
CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS