Plurality of Public in Five Major European Countries Continues to See the U.S., Over Five Other Countries, as the Greatest Threat to Global Stability

A new Harris Poll of almost 10,000 people in France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy and Spain finds that a plurality continues to believe that the United States is more of a threat to global stability than Iran, North Korea, Iraq, China or Russia.

The online survey was conducted among adults aged 16 and over in France (2,050), Germany (2,019), Great Britain (1,936), Italy (2,011) and Spain (1,946) between August 2 and 11, 2006 by Harris Interactive^®.

An average of 30 percent of adults in these five countries see the United States as the biggest threat of six countries listed, followed by Iran (23%), China (15%), Iraq (14%), North Korea (8%) and Russia (2%). The 30 percent who believe that the United States is the biggest threat to global stability compares with 36 percent who held this opinion in June and 30 percent in July of this year.

In this new survey, 36 percent of the British see the United States as the greatest threat, followed by Iran at 19 percent. In France, the numbers are 28 percent for the United States, and 24 percent for Iran. In Spain, a full 44 percent see the United States as the greatest threat, with only 15 percent seeing Iran as the greatest threat. In Germany, 24 percent see both the United States and Iran as the greatest threat. Only in Italy do more people see Iran (31%) as the greatest threat to global stability, followed by the United States (21%).

Perceptions of North Korea as the greatest threat to stability have moved up and down rather sharply over the last three months. In June only four percent on average across the five countries saw it as the greatest threat. In July, North Korea jumped to 20 percent, in second place above Iran. This month it has dropped back to only eight percent. These changes probably reflect media coverage of these countries and their nuclear programs.

"Which one, if any, of the following countries do you think is the greatest threat to global stability?"

Base: All Adults aged 16 and over

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding

"Which one, if any, of the following countries do you think is the greatest threat to global stability?"

Base: All Adults aged 16 and over

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding

*Less than 0.5%

This Harris Poll question developed in collaboration with The Financial Times and was conducted online by Harris Interactive between August 2 and 11, 2006 among adults aged 16 and over: 1,936 in Great Britain, 2,050 in France, 2,011 in Italy, 2,019 in Germany and 1,946 in Spain. Figures for age, sex, education, region and Internet usage were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.

With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.

With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 2,000 one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/-3 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

Harris Poll Global Omnibus

Q 3050