The Harris Poll® #71, September 15, 2006

Political Ratings of U.S. Leaders Rise Moderately Since Last Month

Only one-third of U.S. adults believe country is going in the right direction

As the summer comes to a close, President George Bush is receiving his highest job performance numbers in a few months, with about four in 10 (38%) adults having a positive view (up from 34% in August) and 61 percent holding a negative view. The view of the direction of the country has also improved, with 31 percent of U.S. adults believing the country is going in the right direction, as opposed to last month, where just one-quarter (26%) believed the same. However, fully 59 percent believe it is seriously on the wrong track.

These are some of the results from the latest Harris Poll of 1,004 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone between September 8 and 11, 2006 by Harris Interactive®.

With only seven weeks until the November mid-term elections, Harris Interactive is now looking at voters and what they think about the Congressional elections. Among registered voters, 35 percent say they are going to vote for the Republican candidate, while 45 percent say they will vote for the Democratic candidate. The race is similar if we look at likely voters, (i.e., registered voters who say they are very or somewhat likely to vote) as 35 percent choose the Republican candidate, while 46 percent say they will vote for a Democrat. Thirty-seven percent of interested voters (i.e., registered voters who say they are very or somewhat interested in the upcoming election) say they are voting Republican while 47 percent say they are voting Democratic. Turnout will be a critical factor – especially differential turnout between Republican and Democratic voters.

Administration ratings

Vice President Dick Cheney continues to receive positive marks from only three in 10 (30%) U.S. adults while just under two-thirds (64%) view his job performance in a negative light. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice still receives the highest performance ratings among all political figures measured in the poll, as 55 percent have a positive view of her job performance, compared to 42 percent who have a negative view. This is slightly better than her ratings in June, when 52 percent had a positive view of her job performance and 43 percent had a negative view. As for Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, his modest positive rating has also increased (38% now as compared to 34% in June), while his substantial negative rating has decreased slightly (60% in June to 58% now).

U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts’ positive job numbers are up slightly from 41 percent in June to 42 percent. His negative job ratings have decreased from 41 percent in June to 38 percent.

Congressional ratings

As we get closer to the November mid-term elections, both Democrats and Republicans have seen a rise in their ratings, but they still have much work to do to repair their image in the public’s eye. Just one-quarter (24%) of U.S. adults have a positive view of the job Republicans in Congress are doing, while 29 percent have a positive view of the job Democrats are doing. Two-thirds of U.S. adults (67%) view the job Democrats are doing negatively, while 71 percent feel the same about the job the Republicans in Congress are doing. Twenty-four percent of U.S. adults have a positive view of the overall job Congress is doing (an increase from 18 percent in May), while 73 percent have a negative view (a decrease from 80 percent in May).

Much of this negativity toward the two parties in Congress is also seen in the job performance numbers of some of its leaders.

  • Republican Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist has a 25 percent positive approval rating and a 52 percent negative rating. In June, he had a positive rating of 23 percent and a negative rating of 55 percent.
  • Things aren’t much better for Democratic Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, as about one-quarter of adults (23%) give him a positive job approval rating, while half (52%) view his job performance negatively. This is slightly better than June, when 19 percent had a positive view of his job performance and 54 percent had a negative view.
  • In the House, Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert has also seen a slight increase in his approval ratings. This month his positive rating is at 27 percent, up from 24 percent in June, while his negative job rating is at 48 percent, down from 56 percent.
  • Republican House Majority Leader John Boehner is another political figure enjoying just a slight increase in his job performance ratings, as 24 percent of U.S. adults view his job performance positively, while 47 percent view it negatively. In June, his job ratings were 22 percent positive and 51 percent negative.

Important issues

Again this month, the war in Iraq tops the list of issues for the government to address, although that has slipped a little, as 22 percent of U.S. adults believe it is one of two most important issues to address, compared to last month when 28 percent felt this way. The economy is next at 13 percent, followed by health care and immigration, each with 12 percent. Interestingly, with the conclusion of the summer driving season and the continued drop in gas prices, only four percent now say that gas and oil prices are one of the two most important issues, compared to eight percent last month.

TABLE 1

CURRENT RATINGS OF PRESIDENT, SENIOR CABINET MEMBERS AND PARTIES IN CONGRESS

"How would you rate the job (READ ITEM) are/is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

Base: All adults

 ExcellentPretty Good

Only Fair

PoorNot Sure

Positive*Negative**

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice

%1936261635542

President George W. Bush

%1227223813861

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld

%1028253243858

Vice President Dick Cheney

%724293553064

Chief Justice John Roberts

%735308204238

Deputy White House Chief of Staff Karl Rove

%6233321172953

House Speaker Dennis Hastert

%4233315252748

Republicans in Congress

%421363642471

Congress

%321423132473

Democrats in Congress

%326412642967

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist

%3223319232552

House Majority Leader John Boehner

%2223511292447

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid

%1223715252352

*Positive = excellent or pretty good

**Negative = only fair or poor

TABLE 2

POSITIVE RATINGS: TRENDS SINCE 9/11/01: SUMMARY

Base: All adults

POSITIVE RATINGSSoon After 9/11Feb. 2003

April 2003

Aug. 2003

Dec. 2003

Feb. 2004

April 2004

Nov. 2004

Feb. 2005

April 2005Aug. 2005

Nov. 2005

Mar 2006June 2006Sept. 2006

President George W. Bush

%885270575051485048444034363338

Vice President Dick Cheney

%694555424241364845373530303130

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice

%****************52545752515255

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld

%785671555750454742424034353438

** N/A

TABLE 3

PRESIDENT BUSH'S OVERALL JOB RATING

Not Sure’s Excluded

"How would you rate the overall job President George W.Bush is doing as president – excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

Base: All adults

 TREND Positive*Negative**

2006

September

%3861
 

August (8/24)

%3465

August (8/11)

%3466

July

%3465

June

%3367

May

%2971

April

%3563

March

%3664

February

%4058

January

%4356

2005

November

%3465
 

August

%4058

June

%4555

April

%4456

February

%4851

2004

November

%5049
 

October

%5149

September

%4554

August

%4851

June

%5049

April

%4851

February

%5148

2003

December

%5049
 

October

%5940

August

%5741

June

%6136

April

%7029

February

%5246

2002

December

%6435
 

November

%6533

October

%6435

September

%6830

August

%6337

July

%6237

June

%7028

May

%7425

April

%7523

March

%7722

February

%7920

January

%7919

2001

December

%8217
 

November

%8612

October

%8811

August

%5243

July

%5639

June

%5046

May

%5935

March

%4938

February

%5626

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 4

2006 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

"If the election for Congress were being held today,would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democraticcandidate?"

Base: All adults

TREND

 RepublicanDemocratOther+Undecided*+

September

%3445156

August (8/24)

%3247138

August (8/11)

%3045187

July

%3144177

April

%3741156

January

%3443149

*Undecided = No preference/don’t know/refused

+Volunteered response

TABLE 5

2006 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS – By Likely and InterestedVoter

"If the election for Congress were being held today,would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democraticcandidate?"

Base: Registered to vote

  RepublicanDemocratOther+Undecided*+

Registered Voter

%3545146

Likely Voter

%3546136

Interested Voter

%3747124

*Undecided = No preference/don’t know/refused

+Volunteered response

Likely voters are those who are registered and say they are very or somewhatlikely to vote in the election in Nov.

Interested voters are those who are registered and say they are very orsomewhat interested in the upcoming elections for Congress

TABLE 6

RATINGS OF VICE PRESIDENT DICK CHENEY

Not Sure's Excluded

"And how would you rate the job Vice President Cheney isdoing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

 

TREND

 Positive*Negative**

2006

September

%3064
 

June

%3165

March

%3067

2005

November

%3065
 

August

%3560

June

%3856

April

%3760

February

%4552

2004

November

%4850
 

October

%4751

September

%4054

August

%4054

June

%4249

April

%3652

February

%4148

2003

December

%4247
 

October

%4244

August

%4245

June

%4940

April

%5536

February

%4544

2002

December

%5037
 

November

%5239

October

%5437

September

%5237

August

%4543

July

%4641

June

%5534

May

%5533

April

%5531

March

%5929

February

%5731

January

%5531

2001

October

%6920
 

July

%3952

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 7

RATINGS OF SECRETARY OF STATE CONDOLEEZZA RICE

Not Sure's Excluded

"And how would you rate the job Secretary of StateCondoleezza Rice is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

 

TREND

 Positive*Negative**

2006

September

%5542
 

June

%5243

March

%5144

2005

November

%5241
 

August

%5737

June

%5241

April

%5439

February

%5240

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 8

RATINGS OF SECRETARY OF DEFENSE DONALD RUMSFELD

Not Sure’s Excluded

"And how would you rate the job Secretary of DefenseDonald Rumsfeld is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

 

TREND

 Positive*Negative**

2006

September

%3858
 

June

%3460

March

%3561

2005

November

%3459
 

August

%4058

June

%4253

April

%4256

February

%4256

2004

November

%4750
 

October

%4650

September

%4350

August

%4549

June

%4747

April

%4547

February

%5043

2003

December

%5738
 

October

%4744

August

%5536

June

%6032

April

%7122

February

%5635

2002

December

%5930
 

November

%5930

October

%6030

September

%6127

August

%6029

July

%5633

June

%6524

May

%6722

April

%7018

March

%7118

February

%7017

January

%7716

2001

December

%7514
 

October

%7812

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 9

RATINGS OF HOUSE SPEAKER DENNIS HASTERT

Not Sure's Excluded

"And how would you rate the job House Speaker DennisHastert is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

 

TREND

 Positive*Negative**

2006

September

%2748
 

June

%2456

March

%2649

2005

November

%2250
 

August

%2646

June

%2844

April

%3050

2004

September

%2933
 

August

%2933

June

%2932

April

%2535

February

%2635

2003

December

%2430
 

October

%2935

August

%2936

June

%3431

April

%4129

February

%3334

2002

December

%2633
 

November

%3031

October

%3029

September

%3529

August

%2935

July

%2836

June

%3431

May

%3325

April

%3226

March

%3325

February

%3725

January

%4024

2001

October (high)

%5216
 

August (low)

%2729

2000

August (high)

%2928
 

July (low)

%2331

1999

October (low)

%2534
 

April (high)

%3639

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 10

RATINGS OF SENATE MAJORITY LEADER BILL FRIST

Not Sure's Excluded

"And how would you rate the job Senate Majority LeaderBill Frist is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

 

TREND

 Positive*Negative**

2006

September

%2552
 

June

%2355

March

%2155

2005

November

%2352
 

August

%2849

June

%2847

April

%3251

2004

September

%2740
 

August

%2838
 

June

%3036
 

April

%2636
 

February

%3136

2003

December

%2738
 

October

%2934

August

%3235

June

%3832

April

%3929

February

%3730

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor

TABLE 11

RATINGS OF SENATE MINORITY LEADER HARRY REID

Not Sure's Excluded

"And how would you rate the job Senate Minority LeaderHarry Reid is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

 

TREND

 Positive*Negative**

2006

September

%2352
 

June

%1954

March

%1953

2005

August

%2447

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor

TABLE 12

RATINGS OF HOUSE MAJORITY LEADER JOHN BOEHNER

Not Sure's Excluded

"And how would you rate the job House Majority LeaderJohn Boehner is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

 

TREND

 Positive*Negative**

2006

September

%2447
 

June

%2251

March

%2350

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor

TABLE 13

RATINGS OF SUPREME COURT CHIEF JUSTICE JOHN ROBERTS

Not Sure's Excluded

"And how would you rate the job U.S. Supreme Court ChiefJustice John Roberts is doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair orpoor?"

Base: All adults

 

TREND

 Positive*Negative**

2006

September

%4238
 

June

%4141

March

%4136

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor

TABLE 14

CONGRESS’ OVERALL JOB RATING

Not Sure’s Excluded

"How would you rate the overall job the Congress is doing– excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

Base: All adults

 

TREND

 Positive*Negative**

2006

September

%2473
 

May

%1880

February

%2571

January

%2572

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 15

RATINGS OF REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS

Not Sure’s Excluded

"And how would you rate the job Republicans in Congressare doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

 

TREND

 Positive*Negative**

2006

September

%2471
 

June

%2572

May

%2076

March

%2768

2005

November

%2769
 

August

%3264

June

%3758

April

%3661

2004

September

%3856
 

August

%4054

June

%3953

April

%3555

February

%4052

2003

December

%3751
 

October

%4050

August

%4151

June

%4547

April

%5241

February

%4349

2002

December

%4747
 

November

%4745

October

%4645

September

%4742

August

%4149

June

%4645

April

%4939

February

%5040

January

%5834

2001

October (high)

%6724
 

August (low)

%3752

2000

May (low)

%3360
 

February (high)

%3855

1999

October (low)

%3258
 

September (high)

%3955

1998

June (low)

%3162
 

February (high)

%4453

1997

June (low)

%3167
 

February (high)

%3858

1996

May (low)

%2969
 

January (high)

%3366

1995

November (low)

%3563
 

April (high)

%4256

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 16

RATINGS OF DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS

Not Sure’s Excluded

"And how would you rate the job Democrats in Congress aredoing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"

Base: All adults

 

TREND

 Positive*Negative**

2006

September

%2967
 

June

%2670

May

%2372

March

%2470

2005

November

%2570
 

August

%3165

June

%3361

April

%3464

2004

September

%3460
 

August

%3558

June

%3159

April

%3257

February

%3358

2003

December

%2861
 

October

%3456

August

%3060

June

%4151

April

%3952

February

%3854

2002

December

%3655
 

November

%4052

October

%4052

September

%4249

August

%3854

June

%4546

April

%4742

February

%4941

January

%5240

2001

October (high)

%6824
 

May (low)

%4051

2000

September (high)

%4844
 

June (low)

%3852

1999

October (low)

%4250
 

January (high)

%5047

1998

September (high)

%4947
 

June (low)

%4153

1997

June (low)

%3660
 

February (high)

%4354

1996

May (high)

%3662
 

January (low)

%3168

1995

November (high)

%3464
 

July (low)

%3066

1994

December

%2870

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.

**Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 17

RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK

No Opinion’s, Not Sure’s and Decline to Answer’sExcluded

"Generally speaking, would you say things in the countryare going in the right direction or have they pretty seriously gotten off on thewrong track?"

Base: All adults

 

TREND

 Right DirectionWrong Track

2006

September

%3159
 

August

%2664

July

%2861

June

%2864

May

%2469

April

%2765

March

%3160

February

%3259

January

%3354

2005

November

%2768
 

August

%3759

June

%3855

January

%4648

2004

September

%3857
 

June

%3559

2003

December

%3557
 

June

%4451

2002

December

%3657
 

June

%4648

2001

December

%6532
 

June

%4352

January

%4639

2000

October

%5041
 

June

%4051

January

%5038

1999

June

%3755
 

March

%4745

1998

December

%4351
 

June

%4844

1997

December

%3956
 

April

%3655

1996

December

%3850
 

June

%2964

1995

December

%2662
 

June

%2465

1994

December

%2963
 

June

%2865

TABLE 18

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR GOVERNMENT TO ADDRESS

"What do you think are the two most important issues for the government to address?"

Spontaneous, unprompted replies

Base: All Adults

‘96‘97‘98‘99‘00‘01‘02‘03‘04‘05‘06‘06‘06‘06‘06"0606
AprilMayJanFebAugDecDecJuneOctAugFebAprilMayJuneJulyAugSept
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

(The) war

XXXXX12188354127232827322822

The economy (non-specific)

148975323425281915121314151613

Healthcare (not Medicare)

1610111215510141811201381281212

Immigration

221*1112235191620131012

Terrorism

XXXXX221711776334599

Education

14151421251211137881057887

Iraq / (Saddam Hussein)

***1--113965778876

Employment/jobs

953447881035657666

Gas and oil prices

XXXXXXX111023148984

Military/defense

12224415313214234

Energy

XXXXXXX11443x4444

Taxes

11141612136511856554444

Social security

X6624163244107545424

Homeland/domestic security/public safety

XXXXX893623332344

(Programs for) the poor/ poverty

23223123*45434233

Environment

13233132132123223

National security

XXX22636522232133

Drugs

48625233*21221123

Crime/violence

161913810123131322232

Budget/Government spending

XXXXXXXXXXXX35222

Inflation

XXXXXXXXX11122112

Peace/world peace/nuclear arms

31331223*11111222

Medicare

34556114325321212

Foreign policy (non-specific)

33543242323342221

Homelessness

34433221*11221221

Domestic/social issues (non-specific)

4232222122**13211

Air Travel Safety

-----1**X*X*X**11

Middle East peace process between Palestinians and Israel

XXXXX222*1121**11

Abortion

42226111421121111

Ethics in government

*****111111121*11

School safety

XXXXXXX2*11**1*11

Human/civil/women's rights

221*111*111121111

Bush/president

xxxxXXxxXx1*1X**1

Judicial/Legal Issues

XXXXXXXX*21**11*1

Same sex rights

XXXXXXXX11*1*21**

Welfare

1314842113*312111X*

Downsizing government

XXXX1*XX1**1*1***

Family values (decline of)

22121**111***111*

Honesty/Integrity/ Moral Values

XXXXXXXX22*1*111*

Religion (decline of)

**1*12111**12111*

Medical research

XXXXXXX221211**1*

Election/Voter reform

XXXXXX11*11****1*

Disaster relief/Hurricane Relief

xxxxXXxxXx1**11**

North Korea

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX2*X

FEMA

xxxxXXxxXx*****1X

CIA leak

xxxxXXxxXxX1***XX

Other1

7819219388815466354

Not sure/refused/no issue

79121618111012986446866

* = Less than 0.5% X = Not mentioned as specific issue

1 Including government/politics (nonspecific), housing, AIDS, Foreign Aid, trade, disability, promoting democracy, race relations, campaign finance, youth and programs for the elderly (not Medicare/Social Security)

The August column refers to the August 24th release

Methodology
The Harris Poll® was conducted by telephone within the United States between September 8 and 11, 2006 among a nationwide cross section of 1,004 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region, number of adults in the household, size of place (urbanicity) and number of phone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.

With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.

With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 1,004 adults one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/-3 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

J28468

QA1, QA2, QA3, QA4, QA5



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