President Bush Receives Negative Ratings on All 11 Issues Included in Latest Harris Poll, With Healthcare, Iraq, Hurricane Relief, Taxes and Economy Getting Worst Marks

As the congressional elections enter the final weeks of the campaign, more people – including more likely voters – give President George Bush negative than positive ratings on every one of 11 major election issues. The issues on which the President’s ratings are worst among likely voters include healthcare (64% negative), energy (63% negative), hurricane relief (62% negative), the economy (58% negative) and taxes (58% negative). The President’s negative ratings are high but not as bad on appointments to the Supreme Court (48% negative), keeping America safer (50% negative), protecting traditional values (51% negative), the environment (56% negative) and the war on terror (57% negative).

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of a cross-section of 2,010 U.S. adults (aged 18 and over) including 1,571 likely voters (i.e., registered voters who say they are very or somewhat likely to vote) surveyed online by Harris Interactive^® between October 4 and 10, 2006.

When likely voters were asked to pick two of these 11 issues that will "have the biggest impact on your decision of whom to vote for," the issues mentioned most often are healthcare (29%), keeping America safer (29%), the war on terror (28%), Iraq (27%), the economy (24%) and tax policies (19%). President Bush has substantial negative ratings on all of these issues except for keeping America safer.

It should be noted that in this question the likely voters surveyed were asked to choose two issues from the list of 11 issues. Issues not on the list could not be chosen and having a list reminds them of issues they might not have mentioned spontaneously. In other Harris Polls, when people are asked to say which issues are most important to them without being shown a list, the rank order of issues is usually somewhat different with "the war" (which can include both the war in Iraq and the war on terror) being the issue mentioned most often.

A 43 percent to 24 percent of plurality of the public and a 46 percent to 25 percent plurality of likely voters think it is generally good for the country to have divided government in Washington with different parties controlling the White House and the Congress. Democrats (52% to 20%) are much more supportive of divided government, but even among Republicans a modest 37 percent to 31 percent plurality favors divided government over one party control.

When it comes to this specific election, a 43 percent plurality of likely voters, including 74 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of Independents, would like to see the Democrats winning control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Only 26 percent of likely voters, including 63 percent of Republicans, want the Republicans to maintain control of both houses of Congress.

Of course, no election is over until it’s over and dramatic events in the next two weeks could still have a big influence on voting behavior on November 7. Nevertheless, these poll results are obviously very good news for Democrats and underline the difficulties faced by Republican candidates when the President’s ratings on all these issues are so negative.

"How much do you approve or disapprove of President Bush and his administration’s handling on the following issues?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"How much do you approve or disapprove of President Bush and his administration’s handling on the following issues?"

Base: All Adults

"Thinking about the upcoming Congressional elections, which two of these have the largest impact on your decision of whom to vote for?"

Base: Likely Voters

"Overall, do you think it is good or bad for the country to have a president and a majority in Congress belonging to different parties?

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"After the elections in November we will still have a Republican White House, but it is possible

one of four scenarios could occur. Of these four, which one would you most like to see?

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between October 4 and 10, 2006 among a cross-section of 2,010 adults (aged 18 and over) including 1,571 likely voters. Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.

With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.

With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 2,010 one could say with a 95 percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/-2 percentage points. Sampling error for data based on subsamples would be higher and varies. However that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

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