|
The Harris Poll® #83, November 28, 2006
After Mid-Term Elections, President Bush’s Job Approval
Drops
As they prepare to take over, Democrats in Congress viewed
more favorably than Republicans
The voters have spoken and as Congress prepares for leadership changes in
January, Americans continue to voice their disapproval of President George W.
Bush with his performance ratings trending downward. This month, just 31 percent
have a positive view of his job performance while 67 percent have a negative
view. This is down from last month when 34 percent had a positive view and 63
percent had a negative view. In fact, this is the second-lowest job performance
number for President Bush that Harris Interactive® has found (the
lowest was in May, 2006 at 29% positive).
These are some of the results from the latest Harris Poll of 1,001 U.S.
adults surveyed by telephone between November 17 and 21, 2006 by Harris
Interactive.
President Bush maintains support from most members of his own party,
but not those who share his ideological leanings. Two-thirds of Republicans
(67%) view his job performance in a positive light compared to 29 percent of
Independents and just 11 percent of Democrats. Almost half of Conservatives
(48%) view his job performance positively, followed by Moderates (23%) and
Liberals (10%).
We are, however, seeing some positive change in Americans’ outlook. Just
under one-third (31%) of adults believe things are going in the right direction
in the country, while 58 percent believe things have pretty seriously gotten off
on the wrong track. This is a modest increase from last month, when 27 percent
of adults believed things were going in the right direction and 63 percent said
things were going off on the wrong track. Regionally, less than one-quarter
(23%) of those who live in the Northeast say things are going in the right
direction, compared to those who live in the West (36%), Midwest (33%) or South
(30%) who feel that way.
With control of Congress changing hands, it appears that
perceptions of the job performance of the two parties in Congress are also
changing slightly. In September, about one-quarter of Americans (24%) had a
positive view of the job of Republicans in Congress and 29 percent felt that way
about the job the Democrats were doing. After the elections, the view of
Republicans’ job performance is unchanged, with 24 percent having a positive
view and 72 percent having a negative view. Democrats, however, saw their
numbers rise; 36 percent of Americans now have a positive view of the job
Democrats in Congress are doing and 57 percent have a negative view.
About two-thirds of adults (68%) believe that the White House and Congress
will have to work together to get things done while just over one-quarter (27%)
say they will not work together and nothing will get done. Democrats are much
more likely to be positive on this than Republicans, as 82 percent of Democrats
believe the two branches of government will work together compared to just over
half of Republicans (54%).
When it comes to the most important issues, "the war" is still the
most-cited, as one-third (33%) of Americans believe this is one of the two
issues the government needs to address, followed by healthcare (15%), the
economy (12%) and immigration (11%). Ten percent believe Iraq is one of the two
most important issues for the government to address. Of note, this is an
open-ended question where we allow the respondent to offer their answer in his
or her own words. Since 33 percent say the war and 10 percent specifically
mention Iraq, we keep these responses separate. However, it is worth noting that
altogether, 43 percent are saying that the situation in Iraq is one of the most
important issues for the government to address.
TABLE 1
PRESIDENT BUSH'S OVERALL JOB RATING
Not Sure’s Excluded
"How would you rate the overall job President George W.
Bush is doing as president – excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"
Base: All adults
| |
TREND |
|
Positive* |
Negative** |
|
2006 |
November |
% |
31 |
67 |
| |
October (10/25) |
% |
34 |
63 |
|
October (10/13) |
% |
34 |
64 |
|
September |
% |
38 |
61 |
|
August (8/24) |
% |
34 |
65 |
|
August (8/11) |
% |
34 |
66 |
|
July |
% |
34 |
65 |
|
June |
% |
33 |
67 |
|
May |
% |
29 |
71 |
|
April |
% |
35 |
63 |
|
March |
% |
36 |
64 |
|
February |
% |
40 |
58 |
|
January |
% |
43 |
56 |
|
2005 |
November |
% |
34 |
65 |
| |
August |
% |
40 |
58 |
|
June |
% |
45 |
55 |
|
April |
% |
44 |
56 |
|
February |
% |
48 |
51 |
|
2004 |
November |
% |
50 |
49 |
| |
October |
% |
51 |
49 |
|
September |
% |
45 |
54 |
|
August |
% |
48 |
51 |
|
June |
% |
50 |
49 |
|
April |
% |
48 |
51 |
|
February |
% |
51 |
48 |
|
2003 |
December |
% |
50 |
49 |
| |
October |
% |
59 |
40 |
|
August |
% |
57 |
41 |
|
June |
% |
61 |
36 |
|
April |
% |
70 |
29 |
|
February |
% |
52 |
46 |
|
2002 |
December |
% |
64 |
35 |
| |
November |
% |
65 |
33 |
|
October |
% |
64 |
35 |
|
September |
% |
68 |
30 |
|
August |
% |
63 |
37 |
|
June |
% |
70 |
28 |
|
May |
% |
74 |
25 |
|
April |
% |
75 |
23 |
|
February |
% |
79 |
20 |
|
January |
% |
79 |
19 |
|
2001 |
December |
% |
82 |
17 |
| |
November |
% |
86 |
12 |
|
October |
% |
88 |
11 |
|
August |
% |
52 |
43 |
|
June |
% |
50 |
46 |
|
May |
% |
59 |
35 |
|
March |
% |
49 |
38 |
|
February |
% |
56 |
26 |
*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.
TABLE 2
PRESIDENT BUSH'S OVERALL JOB RATING—NOVEMBER 2006
Not Sure’s Excluded
"How would you rate the overall job President George W.
Bush is doing as president – excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"
Base: All adults
| |
November 2006 |
|
Excellent/Pretty Good (NET) |
% |
31 |
|
Excellent |
% |
9 |
|
Pretty Good |
% |
23 |
|
Only Fair/Poor (NET) |
% |
67 |
|
Only Fair |
% |
24 |
|
Poor |
% |
43 |
TABLE 3
PRESIDENT BUSH'S OVERALL JOB RATING—BY PARTY AND IDEOLOGY
Not Sure’s Excluded
"How would you rate the overall job President George W.
Bush is doing as president – excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"
Base: All adults
| |
Total |
Party |
Ideology |
|
Rep. |
Ind. |
Dem. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|
Positive |
% |
31 |
67 |
29 |
11 |
48 |
23 |
10 |
|
Negative |
% |
67 |
33 |
67 |
89 |
50 |
76 |
90 |
TABLE 4
RATINGS OF REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS
Not Sure’s Excluded
"And how would you rate the job Republicans in Congress
are doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"
Base: All adults
| |
TREND |
|
Positive* |
Negative** |
|
2006 |
November |
% |
24 |
72 |
| |
September |
% |
24 |
71 |
|
June |
% |
25 |
72 |
|
May |
% |
20 |
76 |
|
March |
% |
27 |
68 |
|
2005 |
November |
% |
27 |
69 |
| |
August |
% |
32 |
64 |
|
June |
% |
37 |
58 |
|
April |
% |
36 |
61 |
|
2004 |
September |
% |
38 |
56 |
| |
August |
% |
40 |
54 |
|
June |
% |
39 |
53 |
|
April |
% |
35 |
55 |
|
February |
% |
40 |
52 |
|
2003 |
December |
% |
37 |
51 |
| |
October |
% |
40 |
50 |
|
August |
% |
41 |
51 |
|
June |
% |
45 |
47 |
|
April |
% |
52 |
41 |
|
February |
% |
43 |
49 |
|
2002 |
December |
% |
47 |
47 |
| |
November |
% |
47 |
45 |
|
October |
% |
46 |
45 |
|
September |
% |
47 |
42 |
|
August |
% |
41 |
49 |
|
June |
% |
46 |
45 |
|
April |
% |
49 |
39 |
|
February |
% |
50 |
40 |
|
January |
% |
58 |
34 |
|
2001 |
October (high) |
% |
67 |
24 |
| |
August (low) |
% |
37 |
52 |
|
2000 |
May (low) |
% |
33 |
60 |
| |
February (high) |
% |
38 |
55 |
|
1999 |
October (low) |
% |
32 |
58 |
| |
September (high) |
% |
39 |
55 |
|
1998 |
June (low) |
% |
31 |
62 |
| |
February (high) |
% |
44 |
53 |
|
1997 |
June (low) |
% |
31 |
67 |
| |
February (high) |
% |
38 |
58 |
|
1996 |
May (low) |
% |
29 |
69 |
| |
January (high) |
% |
33 |
66 |
|
1995 |
November (low) |
% |
35 |
63 |
| |
April (high) |
% |
42 |
56 |
*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.
TABLE 5
RATINGS OF DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS
Not Sure’s Excluded
"And how would you rate the job Democrats in Congress are
doing – excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"
Base: All adults
| |
TREND |
|
Positive* |
Negative** |
|
2006 |
November |
% |
36 |
57 |
| |
September |
% |
29 |
67 |
|
June |
% |
26 |
70 |
|
May |
% |
23 |
72 |
|
March |
% |
24 |
70 |
|
2005 |
November |
% |
25 |
70 |
| |
August |
% |
31 |
65 |
|
June |
% |
33 |
61 |
|
April |
% |
34 |
64 |
|
2004 |
September |
% |
34 |
60 |
| |
August |
% |
35 |
58 |
|
June |
% |
31 |
59 |
|
April |
% |
32 |
57 |
|
February |
% |
33 |
58 |
|
2003 |
December |
% |
28 |
61 |
| |
October |
% |
34 |
56 |
|
August |
% |
30 |
60 |
|
June |
% |
41 |
51 |
|
April |
% |
39 |
52 |
|
February |
% |
38 |
54 |
|
2002 |
December |
% |
36 |
55 |
| |
November |
% |
40 |
52 |
|
October |
% |
40 |
52 |
|
September |
% |
42 |
49 |
|
August |
% |
38 |
54 |
|
June |
% |
45 |
46 |
|
April |
% |
47 |
42 |
|
February |
% |
49 |
41 |
|
January |
% |
52 |
40 |
|
2001 |
October (high) |
% |
68 |
24 |
| |
May (low) |
% |
40 |
51 |
|
2000 |
September (high) |
% |
48 |
44 |
| |
June (low) |
% |
38 |
52 |
|
1999 |
October (low) |
% |
42 |
50 |
| |
January (high) |
% |
50 |
47 |
|
1998 |
September (high) |
% |
49 |
47 |
| |
June (low) |
% |
41 |
53 |
|
1997 |
June (low) |
% |
36 |
60 |
| |
February (high) |
% |
43 |
54 |
|
1996 |
May (high) |
% |
36 |
62 |
| |
January (low) |
% |
31 |
68 |
|
1995 |
November (high) |
% |
34 |
64 |
| |
July (low) |
% |
30 |
66 |
|
1994 |
December |
% |
28 |
70 |
*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.
TABLE 6
RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK
No Opinion’s, Not Sure’s and Decline to Answer’s
Excluded
"Generally speaking, would you say things in the country
are going in the right direction or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the
wrong track?"
Base: All adults
| |
TREND |
|
Right Direction |
Wrong Track |
|
2006 |
November |
% |
31 |
58 |
| |
October (10/25) |
% |
27 |
63 |
|
October (10/13) |
% |
29 |
62 |
|
September |
% |
31 |
59 |
|
August |
% |
26 |
64 |
|
July |
% |
28 |
61 |
|
June |
% |
28 |
64 |
|
May |
% |
24 |
69 |
|
April |
% |
27 |
65 |
|
March |
% |
31 |
60 |
|
February |
% |
32 |
59 |
|
January |
% |
33 |
54 |
|
2005 |
November |
% |
27 |
68 |
| |
August |
% |
37 |
59 |
|
June |
% |
38 |
55 |
|
January |
% |
46 |
48 |
|
2004 |
September |
% |
38 |
57 |
| |
June |
% |
35 |
59 |
|
2003 |
December |
% |
35 |
57 |
| |
June |
% |
44 |
51 |
|
2002 |
December |
% |
36 |
57 |
| |
June |
% |
46 |
48 |
|
2001 |
December |
% |
65 |
32 |
| |
June |
% |
43 |
52 |
|
January |
% |
46 |
39 |
|
2000 |
October |
% |
50 |
41 |
| |
June |
% |
40 |
51 |
|
January |
% |
50 |
38 |
|
1999 |
June |
% |
37 |
55 |
| |
March |
% |
47 |
45 |
|
1998 |
December |
% |
43 |
51 |
| |
June |
% |
48 |
44 |
|
1997 |
December |
% |
39 |
56 |
| |
April |
% |
36 |
55 |
|
1996 |
December |
% |
38 |
50 |
| |
June |
% |
29 |
64 |
|
1995 |
December |
% |
26 |
62 |
| |
June |
% |
24 |
65 |
|
1994 |
December |
% |
29 |
63 |
| |
June |
% |
28 |
65 |
TABLE 7
RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK—BY REGION
No Opinion’s, Not Sure’s and Decline to Answer’s
Excluded
"Generally speaking, would you say things in the country
are going in the right direction or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the
wrong track?"
Base: All adults
| |
Total |
Northeast |
Midwest |
South |
West |
|
Right Direction |
% |
31 |
23 |
33 |
30 |
36 |
|
Wrong Track |
% |
58 |
63 |
54 |
60 |
52 |
TABLE 8
WORKING TOGETHER
"Earlier this month, Democrats won control of both Houses
of Congress. How do you think this will change things in Washington, DC?"
Base: All adults
| |
|
Total |
Republican |
Independent |
Democrat |
|
The White House and Congress will have to work together to get things
done |
% |
68 |
54 |
67 |
82 |
|
The White House and Congress will not work together and nothing will
get done |
% |
27 |
39 |
29 |
15 |
|
Other |
% |
4 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
|
Don’t Know |
% |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100 due to rounding.
TABLE 9
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR GOVERNMENT to address
"What do you think are the two most important
issues for the government to address?"
Spontaneous, unprompted replies
Base: All Adults
| ‘96 | ‘97 | ‘98 | ‘99 | ‘00 | ‘01 | ‘02 | ‘03 | ‘04 | ‘05 | ‘06 | ‘06 | ‘06 | "06 | 06 | 06 | 06 | | April | May | Jan | Feb | Aug | Dec | Dec | June | Oct | Aug | Feb | May | June | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | (The) war | X | X | X | X | X | 12 | 18 | 8 | 35 | 41 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 22 | 29 | 33 | Healthcare (not Medicare) | 16 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 11 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 15 | The economy (non-specific) | 14 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 32 | 34 | 25 | 28 | 19 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 12 | Immigration | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | Iraq / (Saddam Hussein) | * | * | * | 1 | - | - | 11 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 10 | Education | 14 | 15 | 14 | 21 | 25 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | Employment/jobs | 9 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | Taxes | 11 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | Social security | X | 6 | 6 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | (Programs for) the poor/ poverty | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | * | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | Military/defense | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Terrorism | X | X | X | X | X | 22 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 3 | Medicare | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Budget/Government spending | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Foreign policy (non-specific) | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | Homeland/domestic security/public safety | X | X | X | X | X | 8 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | Environment | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | National security | X | X | X | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Inflation | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Ethics in government | * | * | * | * | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Crime/violence | 16 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Abortion | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | Energy | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | x | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | Drugs | 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Peace/world peace/nuclear arms | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Gas and oil prices | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | Homelessness | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Human/civil/women's rights | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Welfare | 13 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | X | * | 1 | 1 | Family values (decline of) | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | Religion (decline of) | * | * | 1 | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | Judicial/Legal Issues | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 | Medical research | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | * | * | 1 | Domestic/social issues (non-specific) | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | Middle East peace process between Palestinians andIsrael | X | X | X | X | X | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | Air Travel Safety | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | * | * | X | * | X | X | * | 1 | 1 | X | * | School safety | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 2 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | Same sex rights | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 1 | 1 | * | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | * | CIA leak | x | x | x | x | X | X | x | x | X | x | X | * | * | X | X | X | * | Honesty/Integrity/Moral Values | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 2 | 2 | * | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | * | Downsizing government | X | X | X | X | 1 | * | X | X | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | * | * | * | * | Election/Voter reform | X | X | X | X | X | X | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | * | * | * | Disaster relief/Hurricane Relief | x | x | x | x | X | X | x | x | X | x | 1 | * | 1 | * | * | * | * | North Korea | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | * | X | * | * | FEMA | x | x | x | x | X | X | x | x | X | x | * | * | * | 1 | X | X | x | Bush/president | x | x | x | x | X | X | x | x | X | x | 1 | 1 | X | * | 1 | 1 | x | Other1 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 8 | Not sure/refused/no issue | 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
* = Less than 0.5%, X = Not mentioned as specific issue
1 Including government/politics (nonspecific), housing, AIDS, Foreign
Aid, trade, disability, promoting democracy, race relations, campaign finance,
youth and programs for the elderly (not Medicare/Social Security)
The August column refers to the August 24th release
Methodology
The Harris Poll® was conducted by telephone within the United
States between November 17 and 21, 2006 among a nationwide cross section of
1,001 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity,
education, region, number of adults in the household, size of place (urbanicity)
and number of phone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to
bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.
All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling
error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error
due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally
inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects
(when live interviewers are used) and weighting.
With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result
cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite
"margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be
avoided.
With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is
possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other
sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability
sample of 1,001, one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the
overall results would have a sampling error of +/-3 percentage points. However
that does not take other sources of error into account.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National
Council on Public Polls.
J29601
QA1, QA2, QA3, QA4, QA5, QA6
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