A 68 Percent to 14 Percent Majority Believes That There is Now a Civil War in Iraq

Despite NBC News’ recent announcement that from now on they will describe what was previously called "sectarian violence" as a "civil war," the White House maintains that "what is happening in Iraq does not fit the definition of a civil war." According to a new Harris Poll, a lop-sided 68 percent to 14 percent majority of U.S. adults now believes that there is a civil war in Iraq. In other words, a majority of Americans agrees with NBC.

The public is split between those who believe that "it was a mistake to take military action in Iraq in the first place" (42%) and those who think it "was the right thing to do but that things have gotten off course" (40%). Only a small minority (13%) believes that it "was the right thing to do and things are going reasonably well."

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,429 U.S. adults surveyed online between November 13 and 20, 2006.

This survey finds that attitudes toward events in Iraq are still highly polarized by party. Fully 66 percent of Democrats and 46 percent of Independents think that taking military action in Iraq was "a mistake in the first place," but only nine percent of Republicans feel this way. On the other hand, 56 percent of Republicans (compared to 27 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of Independents) believe invading Iraq "was the right thing to do, but things have gotten off course there." Further, 30 percent of Republicans, but only three percent of Democrats and nine percent of Independents, believe it was the right decision "and things are going reasonably well."

A clear 61 percent majority of adults think it is a "good thing" that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld "will be stepping down." Only nine percent say that it is a "bad thing." Even among Republicans, a 49 percent to 14 percent plurality feels that it a good thing.

The public’s expectations for President George W. Bush’s nominee to take over at the Pentagon, Robert Gates, seem to be "let’s wait and see." Few people expect him to make the situation in Iraq better (13%) or worse (5%). Most people are not sure (40%) or think he will make no difference (42%).

There is no strong consensus on what U.S. policy should be in relation the numbers of troops in Iraq. Only 18 percent of adults favor withdrawing all U.S. troops now. Only 19 percent favor sending more troops to stabilize the situation (which is the position proposed by Senator John McCain). By far the largest number (51%) would like the government to set a timetable for withdrawal.

"Do you believe there is a civil war in Iraq now?

Base: All Adults

"Which of the following possible scenarios would you like to see the U.S. government undertake with regard to Iraq?

Base: All Adults

"Which of the following is closest to your opinion?

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"President Bush has recently announced that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld will be stepping down. Do you think this is a good or bad thing for the United States?

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Robert Gates, the former director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), has been nominated by President Bush to succeed Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense. Do you think this will:"

Base: All Adults

The Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between November 13 and 20, 2006 among 2,429 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.

With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.

With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 2,429 adults one could say with a 95 percent probability that the overall results would have a sampling error of +/- 2 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

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