|
The Harris Poll®
#85, December 4, 2006
Iraq: Numbers Get Even Worse
Despite overall negative attitude, 83 percent give U.S.
solders positive rating
The latest Harris Poll of public attitudes on the
situation in Iraq makes for depressing reading. Most of the numbers are worse
than they have ever been in the course of more than three years. For
example, those who believe that the situation for U.S. troops "is getting
better" has now fallen to nine percent, compared to 17 percent in September
2006 and 22 percent in January of this year.
These are some of the results of a survey of 2,429 U.S. adults conducted
online between November 13 and 20, 2006 by Harris Interactive®.
The main trends, since the same questions were asked in September, are:
- A 58 percent majority now believes that the situation for U.S. troops is
getting worse and only nine percent think it is getting better. In
September, a 45 percent to 17 percent plurality felt this way;
- A 46 percent to 36 percent plurality (compared to 44% to 39% in September)
now believes that "taking military action against Iraq" was the
wrong thing to do;
- A 63 percent to 17 percent majority is "not confident" that U.S.
policy in Iraq will be successful, compared to a 61 percent to 20 percent
majority in September.
In reply to a new question, this Harris Poll finds that a massive 83 percent
to 11 percent majority gives positive marks to U.S. solders in Iraq. A much more
modest 52 percent to 39 percent majority also gives positive marks to U.S.
generals and other military leaders. However, large majorities give negative
ratings to the Iraqi government (by 78% to 12%), the Iraqi security forces (by
73 % to 16%) and to former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (by 68% to 23%),
who of course has resigned.
TABLE 1
RATING OF PRESIDENT BUSH – HANDLING OF IRAQ
"Overall, how would you rate the job President Bush has
done in handling the issue of Iraq
over the last several months?"
Base: All Adults
|
|
2003 |
2004 |
|
March |
April |
May |
July |
Sept |
Nov |
Jan |
March |
April |
May |
June |
July |
Sept |
Dec |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Positive (NET) |
56 |
67 |
63 |
49 |
47 |
41 |
51 |
49 |
43 |
42 |
41 |
39 |
41 |
42 |
|
Excellent
|
29 |
38 |
34 |
21 |
16 |
15 |
20 |
18 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
|
Pretty good
|
27 |
29 |
28 |
29 |
31 |
26 |
31 |
31 |
29 |
29 |
27 |
24 |
27 |
30 |
|
Negative (NET) |
43 |
32 |
36 |
50 |
51 |
58 |
46 |
49 |
55 |
56 |
58 |
58 |
58 |
57 |
|
Only fair |
16 |
15 |
18 |
22 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
|
Poor |
27 |
17 |
18 |
28 |
32 |
38 |
26 |
30 |
37 |
39 |
39 |
40 |
41 |
37 |
|
Not sure |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
2005 |
2006 |
|
Jan |
March |
May |
July |
Sept |
Oct |
Dec |
Jan |
March |
May |
Sept |
Nov |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Positive (NET) |
39 |
42 |
37 |
34 |
34 |
32 |
29 |
36 |
30 |
29 |
32 |
26 |
|
Excellent |
13 |
18 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
12 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
7 |
|
Pretty good |
26 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
24 |
21 |
20 |
25 |
21 |
20 |
23 |
20 |
|
Negative (NET) |
59 |
56 |
61 |
64 |
65 |
66 |
68 |
61 |
68 |
68 |
64 |
71 |
|
Only fair |
17 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
20 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
|
Poor |
42 |
36 |
42 |
44 |
46 |
50 |
52 |
41 |
48 |
47 |
42 |
50 |
|
Not sure |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 2
CONFIDENCE THAT U.S. POLICIES IN IRAQ WILL BE SUCCESSFUL
"How confident are you that U.S. policies in Iraq will be
successful?"
Base: All Adults
|
|
2003 |
2004 |
|
Sept |
Nov |
Jan |
Feb |
March |
April |
May |
June |
July |
Sept |
Dec |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Confident |
27 |
25 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
26 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
29 |
29 |
|
Not confident |
46 |
51 |
45 |
48 |
46 |
52 |
55 |
53 |
51 |
54 |
51 |
|
Not sure |
27 |
24 |
24 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
20 |
22 |
23 |
18 |
20 |
|
|
2005 |
2006 |
|
Jan |
March |
May |
July |
Sept |
Oct |
Dec |
Jan |
March |
May |
Sept |
Nov |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Confident |
25 |
30 |
26 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
22 |
26 |
20 |
22 |
20 |
17 |
|
Not confident |
56 |
49 |
54 |
59 |
59 |
61 |
62 |
55 |
61 |
61 |
61 |
63 |
|
Not sure |
19 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 3
MILITARY ACTION – RIGHT OR WRONG THING TO DO
"Thinking about everything that has happened, do you
think that taking military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to
do?"
Base: All Adults
|
|
2003 |
2004 |
|
Sept |
Nov |
Jan |
Feb |
March |
April |
May |
June |
July |
Sept |
Dec |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right thing |
55 |
49 |
55 |
52 |
51 |
49 |
47 |
44 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
|
Wrong thing |
32 |
37 |
31 |
34 |
33 |
37 |
38 |
42 |
42 |
43 |
43 |
|
Not sure |
13 |
13 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
14 |
|
|
2005 |
2006 |
|
Jan |
March |
May |
July |
Sept |
Oct |
Dec |
Jan |
March |
May |
Sept |
Nov |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right thing |
39 |
41 |
39 |
38 |
37 |
34 |
35 |
40 |
37 |
38 |
39 |
36 |
|
Wrong thing |
46 |
45 |
48 |
49 |
49 |
53 |
53 |
46 |
48 |
47 |
44 |
46 |
|
Not sure |
15 |
15 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly
to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 4
SITUATION FOR U.S. TROOPS – GETTING BETTER OR WORSE
"Do you think that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq
is…?"
Base: All Adults
|
|
2004 |
|
Jan |
Feb |
March |
April |
May |
June |
July |
Sept |
Dec |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Getting better |
24 |
22 |
24 |
9 |
11 |
19 |
18 |
15 |
18 |
|
Getting worse |
36 |
38 |
38 |
64 |
65 |
49 |
45 |
54 |
50 |
|
No real change |
31 |
31 |
30 |
20 |
19 |
26 |
30 |
26 |
25 |
|
Not sure |
8 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
|
|
2005 |
2006 |
|
Jan |
March |
May |
July |
Sept |
Oct |
Dec |
Jan |
March |
May |
Sept |
Nov |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Getting better |
13 |
21 |
21 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
22 |
17 |
20 |
17 |
9 |
|
Getting worse |
53 |
41 |
39 |
44 |
43 |
44 |
43 |
36 |
46 |
43 |
45 |
58 |
|
No real change |
28 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
33 |
33 |
32 |
35 |
32 |
31 |
31 |
27 |
|
Not sure |
6 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 5
RATINGS OF SOLDIERS, MILITARY LEADERS, IRAQI GOVERNMENT AND
SECURITY FORCES
"Overall, how would
you rate the job each of the following has done in handling
Iraq over the last several months?"
Base: All Adults
| |
Excellent |
Pretty
Good |
Only
Fair |
Poor |
Not
Sure |
Positive* |
Negative* |
|
U.S. Soldiers |
% |
59 |
24 |
7 |
4 |
7 |
83 |
11 |
|
U.S. Generals and other military leaders |
% |
16 |
36 |
26 |
13 |
9 |
52 |
39 |
|
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld |
% |
5 |
17 |
23 |
45 |
9 |
23 |
68 |
|
Iraqi Security forces |
% |
1 |
14 |
35 |
38 |
11 |
16 |
73 |
|
The Iraqi government |
% |
1 |
11 |
38 |
40 |
10 |
12 |
78 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
* Positive: excellent or pretty good
* Negative: only fair or poor
Methodology
The Harris Poll® was conducted online within the United
States between November 13 and 20, 2006 among 2,429 adults (aged 18 and over).
Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted
where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the
population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’
propensity to be online.
All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling
error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error
due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally
inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects
(when live interviewers are used) and weighting.
With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result
cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite
"margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be
avoided.
With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is
possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other
sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability
sample of 2,429 adults one could say with a 95 percent probability that the
overall results have a sampling error of +/- 2 percentage points. However that
does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not
based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be
calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National
Council on Public Polls.
J W28940
Q 501, 505, 510, 515, 519
| 
Print
