2006 Harris Polls Suggest Modest Loss by Republicans in Party Affiliation for the Second Year Running

Every year, The Harris Poll^® combines the results of its nationwide telephone polls conducted throughout the year to measure party identification and political philosophy in an effort to accurately report on the modest changes from year to year. The Harris Polls conducted by telephone in 2006 show the Democrats continuing to increase their lead over Republicans in party identification. Currently, the Democrats’ lead over the Republicans is nine percentage points, up from six percentage points in 2005 and three points in 2004. This is now the largest Democratic lead since 1998, when it was also nine percentage points.

These are the results of Harris Polls conducted by telephone by Harris Interactive^® throughout 2006 among a total of 10,032 U.S. adults. Most Harris Polls are now conducted online, but to ensure consistency in comparison with the previous years, only the telephone surveys are included in these tables.

Other results of these surveys, which provide averages for the whole of 2006, are:

• Independents comprise almost one-quarter of all adults (24%), up from last year’s 22 percent, but back to where they were in 2002, 2003 and 2004;
• While Democrats have increased their lead over Republicans, conservatives continue to outnumber liberals by a wide margin (37% to 19%), a slight increase from a 34 to 20 percent margin in 2005;
• Moderates have dropped and now are even with conservatives at 37 percent. This is a change from 2005, when they outnumbered conservatives by a modest 42 to 37 percent margin.

Looking at trends over 37 years between 1969 and 2006, several clear trends (or lack of change) emerge:

• The Democratic lead over Republicans has fallen over time from 21 percentage points in the 1970s, to 11 points in the 1980s and seven points in the 1990s.The lead has averaged six percentage points in the 2000s;
• In looking at political philosophy, the percentages of liberals and moderates have stayed very steady in the past four decades. Only the number of conservatives has changed, up from 32 percent in the 1970s, to 38 percent in the 1990s and down to 35 percent in this decade.

"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself – a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

Base: All adults

Note: "Other" and "Not sure" responses excluded.

*Data are not available for 1968.

"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself – a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

Base: All adults

"How would you describe your own political philosophy – conservative, moderate, or liberal?"

Base: All adults

*Data are not available for the following years: 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1993, and 1994.

Note: "Other" and "Not sure" responses excluded.

"How would you describe your own political philosophy – conservative, moderate, or liberal?"

Base: All adults

Note: "Other" and "Not sure" responses excluded.

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between February and November 2006 among a nationwide cross section of 10,032 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region, number of adults in the household, size of place (urbanicity) and number of phone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.

With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.

With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 10,032, one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the overall results would have a sampling error of +/-1 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account.