The Harris Poll^® #19, March 1, 2007

Confidence in Leaders of Major Institutions: Small Business Tops the List this Year

The military, colleges and universities, and medicine fill the next three places while Congress, the press and law firms are at the bottom of the list

Throughout the past four decades, The Harris Poll^® has examined the level of U.S. adults’ confidence in the leaders of major institutions. During this time, overall confidence has gone up and down while different institutions have seen their confidence fluctuate. This year, the overall confidence index has stayed relatively steady, going up one point to 53 from last year’s 52. In 2005, the index was also at 53 so the three year trend is one of stability.

However, the stability of the Index masks considerable change – up and down – in public confidence on the leaders of specific institutions.

Looking at specific institutions, we have a change at the top this year. Small business was added to the list of institutions in 2005 and tied with the military at the top of the list that first year. Last year, it was a close second to the military, but in 2007, over half of U.S. adults (54%) express a great deal of confidence in leaders of small business. The military drops to second (46 percent), while major educational institutions (37 percent) and medicine (37 percent) round out the top four institutions.

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,013 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone between February 6 and 12, 2007 by Harris Interactive^®.

Attitudes toward leaders of specific institutions

Despite the lack of overall change in the confidence index, views toward many specific institutions have changed. Most significantly, the institutions with the largest decreases are the U.S. Supreme Court (dropping six percentage points from 33% to the current 27%), organized religion (dropping three percentage points from 30% to 27%) and the White House (also dropping three points from 25% to 22%). In the past two years, overall confidence in the White House has fallen nine points, from 31 percent to 22 percent. In fact, since 2002 when confidence in the White House was at an all-time high of 50 percent, the drop has been very sharp – a loss of 28 percentage points in just five years

Leaders of some institutions have seen an increase in the percentage of adults who say they have a great deal of confidence in them. For example, 37 percent of U.S. adults say they have a great deal of confidence in the leaders of medicine, up from 31 percent in last year. Other gains include major companies (from 13% to 16%), organized labor (from 12% to 15%) and law firms (from 10% to 13%).

Some institutions showed a little change this year, including Wall Street at 17 percent (up slightly from 15%), the press at 12 percent (down slightly from 14%) and television news at 20 percent (up slightly from 19%). Finally, three institutions remain unchanged from 2006 - public schools at 22 percent, the courts and the justice system at 21 percent, and Congress at 10 percent.

Of note, there is a small theme in what went up and what went down this year. Institutions that are more in the public domain such as the White House, the U.S. Supreme Court, organized religion and the press all went down. Institutions that are more business-oriented, such as small businesses, medicine, major companies, Wall Street and law firms, all showed an increase in the confidence people have in them. A year of scandals in Washington seems to have taken its toll on attitudes toward public institutions, and the corporate scandals of the early part of the decade have started to fade from view.

TABLE 1

CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (2007)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Base: All Adults

	Great Deal	Only Some	Hardly Any	Not Sure/ Refused
	%	%	%	%
Small business	54	42	3	1
The military	46	33	19	1
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	37	50	12	1
Medicine	37	45	17	1
Organized religion	27	45	25	3
The U.S. Supreme Court	27	54	17	2
Public schools	22	50	27	1
The White House	22	34	44	1
The courts and the justice system	21	52	26	1
Television news	20	54	25	1
Wall Street	17	51	24	7
Major companies	16	58	25	1
Organized labor	15	49	31	5
Law firms	13	54	30	2
The press	12	49	38	1
Congress	10	53	36	1

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 2A

CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (2001-2007)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Those saying "a great deal of confidence"

Base: All Adults

	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Small business	X	X	X	X	47	45	54
The military	44	71	62	62	47	47	46
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	35	33	31	37	39	38	37
Medicine	32	29	31	32	29	31	37
Organized religion	25	23	19	27	27	30	27
The U.S. Supreme Court	35	41	34	29	29	33	27
Public schools	X	X	X	X	26	22	22
The White House	21	50	40	31	31	25	22
The courts and the justice system	X	X	X	X	22	21	21
Television news	24	24	21	17	16	19	20
Wall Street	23	19	12	17	15	15	17
Major companies	20	16	13	12	17	13	16
Organized labor	15	11	14	15	17	12	15
Law firms	10	13	12	10	11	10	13
The press	13	16	15	15	12	14	12
Congress	18	22	20	13	16	10	10
The executive branch of the federal government	20	33	26	23	X	X	X
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	55	65	57	55	53	52	53

X = Not asked

TABLE 2B

CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1991-2000)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Those saying "a great deal of confidence"

Base: All Adults

	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The military	X	50	57	39	43	47	37	44	54	48
Small business	47	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	X	29	23	25	27	30	27	37	37	36
The U.S. Supreme Court	15	30	26	31	32	31	28	37	42	34
Medicine	23	22	22	23	26	29	29	38	39	44
Organized religion	21	11	X	X	24	X	20	25	27	26
The White House	X	25	23	18	13	15	15	20	22	21
Public schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The courts and the justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Television news	9	12	23	20	16	21	18	26	23	20
Wall Street	14	13	13	15	13	17	17	18	30	30
The press	X	X	15	13	11	14	11	14	15	13
Major companies	20	10	16	19	21	21	18	21	23	28
Organized labor	21	11	X	X	8	X	9	13	15	15
Congress	9	16	12	8	10	10	11	12	12	15
Law firms	X	13	11	8	9	11	7	11	10	12
The executive branch of the federal government	X	X	15	12	9	12	12	17	17	18
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	45	45	47	43	43	47	42	54	60	59

X = Not asked

TABLE 2C

CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1981-1990)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Those saying "a great deal of confidence"

Base: All Adults

	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Small business	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The military	28	31	35	45	32	36	35	33	32	43
Major educational institutions such as colleges & universities	34	30	36	40	35	34	36	34	32	35
The White House	28	20	23	42	30	19	23	17	20	14
The U.S. Supreme Court	29	25	33	35	28	32	30	32	28	32
Medicine	37	32	35	43	39	33	36	40	30	35
Organized religion	22	20	22	24	21	22	16	17	16	20
Public Schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The courts and justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Major companies	16	18	18	19	17	16	21	19	16	9
Organized labor	12	8	10	12	13	11	11	13	10	18
Congress	16	13	20	28	16	21	20	15	16	14
Television news	24	24	24	28	23	27	29	28	25	27
Wall Street	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	8	21
The press	16	14	19	18	16	19	19	18	18	12
Law firms	X	X	12	17	12	14	15	13	X	X
The executive branch of the federal government	24	X	X	X	19	18	19	16	17	14
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	51	46	53	63	51	51	53	50	46	50

X = Not asked

TABLE 2D

CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1966-1980)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Those saying "a great deal of confidence"

Base: All Adults

	1966	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The military	61	27	35	40	33	24	23	27	29	29	28
Small business	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Major educational institutions such as colleges & universities	61	37	33	44	40	36	31	37	41	33	36
The U.S. Supreme Court	50	23	28	33	40	28	22	29	29	28	27
Medicine	73	61	48	57	50	43	42	43	42	30	34
Organized religion	41	27	30	36	32	32	24	29	24	20	22
The White House	X	X	X	18	28	X	11	31	14	15	18
Public schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The courts and justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Television news	X	X	X	41	31	35	28	28	35	37	29
Wall Street	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	12
The press	29	18	18	30	25	26	20	18	23	28	19
Major companies	55	27	27	29	21	19	16	20	22	18	16
Organized labor	22	14	15	20	18	14	10	14	15	10	14
Congress	42	19	21	X	18	13	9	17	10	18	18
Law firms	X	X	X	24	18	16	12	14	18	16	13
The executive branch of the federal government	41	23	27	19	28	13	11	23	14	17	17
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	100	58	59	69	64	55	44	55	55	50	49

X = Not asked

TABLE 3

CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS; AVERAGE FOR INDEX IN EACH DECADE

	1960s		1970s		1980s		1990s		2000s
					1980	49	1990	50	2000	59
			1971	58	1981	51	1991	45	2001	55
			1972	59	1982	46	1992	45	2002	65
			1973	69	1983	53	1993	47	2003*	57
			1974	64	1984	63	1994	43	2004	55
			1975	55	1985	51	1995	43	2005	53
	1966	100	1976	44	1986	51	1996	47	2006	52
			1977	55	1987	53	1997	42	2007	53
			1978	55	1988	50	1998	54
			1979	50	1989	46	1999	60
AVERAGE FOR DECADE	100		57		51		48		56

*Completed in December 2002

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 6 and 12, 2007 among a nationwide cross section of 1,013 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

The Harris Interactive Confidence in Leadership Index measures changes in the public’s confidence in various institutions. It is derived in the following manner:

The index is based on the mean value of the items asked.
All items have equal weight.
The year 1966, the first year the items were asked, was set as a reference year for the index and assigned a score of 100.
In order to yield a score of 100 in 1966, the mean value of the original 10 items was multiplied by a factor of 2.11. This same factor was then applied to the mean score in subsequent years, as long as the same items were asked.
Whenever a new item is added, the multiplication factor is changed so that the new item has no effect on that year’s score. The new factor is derived by calculating the index with and without the new item(s), taking the ratio of the two scores, and multiplying this ratio by the old factor. (The current factor is 2.14).
In years when an item included in a previous year is not asked, it is assumed for calculation purposes that no change has occurred in that item since the last time it was asked.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results of the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Sampling error for the sub-sample results is higher and varies. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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