Support for Barack Obama Surges

A new Harris Poll finds that Senator Barack Obama has increased his support substantially since a previous poll in early February, and his support is now almost as strong as that for Senator Hillary Clinton.

The new Harris Poll asks the public questions about current and potential presidential candidates that are slightly different from those asked in most other polls. First, people are asked who, on a long list of 26 political leaders, they would "consider voting for." Then they are asked who, of all the listed leaders, "they would most likely vote for." Unlike some other polls, all adults regardless of their party affiliation are asked about all candidates.

This is a Harris Poll of 2,776 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive^® between March 1 and 12, 2007. Respondents were able to review the list of all 26 potential candidates to say whom they would consider and prefer. Like all polls conducted well before an election, it should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential "horse race," at a very early stage in the race. We will review the data on the Republican candidates in an upcoming column.

Senator Obama’s gains since the February poll include:

• Among all adults, 41 percent would now consider voting for him; the same number as would consider voting for Senator Clinton. In February, Clinton led Obama by 45 percent to 37 percent on this question;
• Among Democrats, 59 percent would consider voting for Obama, up from 53 percent in February. This is still below the number of Democrats who would consider voting for Senator Clinton (68%), but her support is down from 74 percent in February;
• Among Independents, people are slightly more likely to consider voting for Obama (42%) than for Clinton (36%). In February Clinton led Obama by 40 percent to 35 percent;
• When it comes to the public’s first choice for president, Clinton still leads Obama by 15 percent to 12 percent among all adults. However, this is down from a 20 percent to 10 percent lead in February;
• Among Democrats, Senator Clinton still has a clear (27% to 21%) lead over Obama as first choice, but this is down from 36 percent to 18 percent in February;
• Among Independents, almost equal numbers prefer Clinton (10%) and Obama (9%). In February Clinton had a two-to-one (16% to 8%) lead.

Senators Clinton and Obama are not, of course, the only Democratic contenders for the presidency. Former Senator John Edwards and former Vice President Al Gore still have many supporters, and they are the only other two candidates to have the support of more than 15 percent.

The levels of support for Edwards and Gore are similar, but Gore has picked up a little support since February, helped perhaps by his Oscar. Equal percentages of all adults (29%) say they would consider voting for Edwards and Gore, whose support is up slightly since February (26%).

Democrats are slightly more likely to consider voting for Gore (49%) than for Edwards (45%). In February, they were tied at 44 percent.

When it comes to their support as the first choice, six percent of all adults pick Gore and five percent prefer Edwards. Among Democrats, 11 percent prefer Gore (up from 7% in February) and eight percent choose Edwards (down from 9% in February).

"Although the U.S. presidential election is not until November, 2008, there are a number of people who may run for president. If you were to vote and had to select from the following candidates, for which of the following people would you consider voting?"

Base: All adults

Note: Multiple-response question

*Less than .5%; "-"No response

"If you could vote for one candidate, who would you most likely vote for?"

Base: All adults

Note: Howard Dean, Chris Dodd and Mike Gravel were chosen by less than 0.5%.

Note: Columns do not add to 100% because this table does not include Republicans who were chosen, and those who chose Republicans or who did not choose any of the listed candidates or who said a third party candidate or that they would not vote.

*Less than .5%; "-"No response

This Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between March 1 and 12, 2007 among 2,776 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.

With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.

With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 2,776 adults one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- two percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

J30279A (March)

Q 492, 494