Many U.S. Adults are Uncomfortable Voting for a Mormon in the 2008 Presidential Race

Sometimes it is difficult to determine whether there is prejudice against a political candidate as a result of their particular race, gender or religion group. Whether someone would vote for a Mormon is one such issue in the 2008 Presidential race, since Republican candidate and former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney is a member of this group. In an effort to understand this issue, Harris Interactive^® asked 2 similar questions of two different samples of U.S. adults; one question focused on whether they would vote for an "equally qualified" Presbyterian versus a Baptist, the other a Presbyterian versus a Mormon. This Harris Poll shows that being a Mormon candidate is an electoral liability.

We asked adults if they would be more likely to vote for "Mr. Smith", a 48 year old male, married, Presbyterian, with a Business Management degree, or "Mr. Jones", a 54 year old male, who is married and has a law degree, if they were both equally qualified to be president. The difference is that for one half of our respondents, Mr. Jones is a Baptist and for the other half, Mr. Jones is a Mormon. In the race between Mr. Smith and Mr. Jones, the Baptist, Mr. Smith wins 41 percent to 18 percent, with 42 percent not sure. In the race between Mr. Smith and Mr. Jones, the Mormon, over half (52%) say they would vote for Mr. Smith with only 9 percent voting for Mr. Jones. Two in five were not sure. In other words, everything else being equal, 11 percent more would vote for Mr. Smith if he is running against a Mormon than if he is running against a Baptist.

These are just some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,223 U.S. adults conducted online between March 6 and 14, 2007 by Harris Interactive.

Age is an interesting indicator for this question. In the race featuring the Baptist candidate, Echo Boomers (those ages 18 to 30) split 31 percent for Mr. Smith and 25 percent for Mr. Jones. However, the gap clearly widens in the race featuring the Mormon candidate. In that race, over half (54%) of Echo Boomers would vote for Mr. Smith, the Presbyterian versus only 14 percent for Mr. Jones the Mormon.

Partisan differences may also be an issue for Mr. Romney. Looking only at the Republican voters, just under half (46%) would vote for the Presbyterian candidate while 21 percent would vote for the Baptist. In the other race, over half (52%) would vote for the Presbyterian, while only 11 percent would vote for the Mormon candidate.

A different picture emerges when adults are asked flat out, "Would you vote for a Mormon who is running for president if he was otherwise qualified?" Over two in five (44%) say they would vote for a Mormon while just 29 percent say they would not and 27 percent are not sure. Some groups are more likely than others to say they would vote for a Mormon. Over half (56%) of Matures (aged 62 and older), half of those with a post grad degree, and half of both Republicans and Independents all say they would vote for a Mormon. However, this support is soft. Across the board, less than 20 percent say they would definitely vote for a Mormon.

Is Governor Romney’s Mormon religion a handicap? Yes, it is a serious handicap.

Does that make Governor Romney unelectable? No. It makes his election less likely, but not impossible.

One thing that is going to be a large factor will be the impressive fundraising totals that the Romney campaign reported for the first quarter of 2007; money may help him overcome these obstacles. One thing to recall is that in 1960, many people had serious reservations about voting for a Catholic candidate, but in the course of his campaign Senator Jack Kennedy defused much of this religious prejudice (with help and advice from Lou Harris, the founder of The Harris Poll) and was elected president. Ultimately, between now and next year’s elections the only certainty about the standing of the candidates in the polls is that the public’s opinions will change.

"Imagine both men are equally qualified to be president, which of these two imaginary candidates, Mr. Smith or Mr. Jones, would you most prefer to be the President of the United States"

Base: Half of all adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

"Imagine both men are equally qualified to be president, which of these two imaginary candidates, Mr. Smith or Mr. Jones, would you most prefer to be the President of the United States"

Base: Half of all adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

"If you thought he or she was otherwise qualified, would you vote for a Mormon who was running for President of the United States."

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.

"If you thought he or she was otherwise qualified, would you vote for a Mormon who was running for President of the United States."

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.

This Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between March 6 and 14, 2007, among 2,223 adults (aged 18 and over). The first Smith/Jones question was asked among 1,091 adults and the second Smith/Jones question was asked among 1,132 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.

With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.

With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 2,223 adults one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the overall results would have a sampling error of +/-2 percentage points. For each of the half samples, one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the overall results would have a sampling error of +/-3 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

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