Majority of British Adults Believe Tony Blair has Weakened Great Britain’s Influence

As Tony Blair prepares to leave office after a decade of governing Great Britain, the legacy he leaves is most likely not the one he intended when he took office in 1997. In his own country, just one-quarter (23%) say Prime Minister Blair has strengthened Britain’s role and level of influence in the world while three in five (60%) say he has weakened it. Some other European countries are a little kinder to Prime Minister Blair’s legacy. Half of Italian adults (53%) believe Prime Minister Blair has strengthened Britain’s influence as do 45 percent of French adults. However, other European countries are not as kind – one-third (32%) of Spanish adults feel he has strengthened Britain’s influence while 38 percent say he has weakened it. Germans are decidedly mixed on this, but lean more negative – one-quarter (26%) say Prime Minister Blair has strengthened Britain’s role in the world, 22 percent say he has had no impact and one-third (36%) say he has weakened it.

In the United States, where President Bush is clearly one of the Prime Minister’s strongest allies, the reaction is more positive. Just over two in five (42%) of U.S. adults say Tony Blair has strengthened Britain’s role and influence in the world while 24 percent say he has weakened it. But, one-quarter of U.S. adults also are not sure.

These are some of the results of a Financial Times/Harris Poll which was conducted online by Harris Interactive^® among a total of 6,520 adults (aged 16 and over), within France (1,125); Germany (1,133); Great Britain (1,088); Spain (987); the United States (1,012), and 1,174 adults (aged 18 and over) in Italy, between May 2 and 14, 2007.

Looking specifically to Europe, two in five (39%) British adults say that Tony Blair has made a negative contribution to Europe over the last decade while slightly more than one-quarter (27%) say it is neutral and 22 percent of his own countrymen say his contribution to the continent has been positive. The other four European countries are more decidedly mixed on this. Italian adults are on one end of the spectrum with 36 percent saying Mr. Blair has made a positive contribution to Europe and 22 percent who say it has been negative. Germany is on the other end with one-third (34%) saying the Prime Minister’s contribution has been a negative one and 19 percent saying positive. France is more negative as 32 percent say his contribution has been negative while 14 percent say it has been positive. Spain, on the other hand, is more positive as 31 percent of Spanish adults feel that Blair’s contribution to Europe has been a positive one, and 24 percent feel it has been negative.

Again, adults in the U.S. are definitely of a different mind. Over half (53%) of those in the U.S. feel that Mr. Blair has made a positive contribution to Europe while only eight percent say it has been negative; but, almost one-quarter (22%) are not sure.

Looking outside of Great Britain now, if Tony Blair was a politician in one of the other countries surveyed, he would have some trouble getting elected. Majorities in France (51%), Spain (58%) and Germany (62%) say they would not vote for Tony Blair if he was a politician in their country. The Italians are not quite as anti-Blair, but two in five (40%) would not vote for him while 28 percent say they would, and one-third (32%)are not sure. U.S. adults are more supportive, but even in the U.S. Blair would have trouble getting elected as just one-third (32%) say they would vote for him. Just over one-quarter (28%) of U.S. adults would not vote for Tony Blair, and 40 percent are not sure.

Prime Minister Tony Blair leaves office with a great deal of history behind him. What he does not seem to leave office with is a great deal of good will by those not only in his country, but also in other European countries. Those "across the pond" in the U.S. are most likely to think Mr. Blair’s contributions have been positive.

"Do you think that Tony Blair has weakened, strengthened or had no impact on Britain's role and level of influence in the world?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"Do you think Tony Blair has made a positive, negative or neutral contribution to Europe over the past 10 years?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"If Tony Blair was a politician in your country, do you think that you would vote for him?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

"-" Not Applicable

This FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive among a total of 6,520 adults (aged 16 and over) within France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain, United States and adults in Italy (aged 18 and over) between 2^nd and 14th May 2007. By country, the totals are: France 1,125; Germany 1,133; Great Britain 1,088; Italy 1,174; Spain 987 and the United States 1,012. Figures for age, sex, education, region and Internet usage were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

J6290

Q1600, 1610, 1625