The Harris Poll #84, August 21, 2007

Memories May Not Be What They Were On Iraq

In 2003, Over Half Said Military Action Was Right Thing To Do, Now Under Half Say They Thought It Was Right Back Then

As displeasure and impatience with the Iraq war grows, fewer people claim to have supported it in the beginning then actually did. In September 2003, over half of Americans (55%) thought that taking military action against Iraq was the right thing to do, while 32 percent thought it was the wrong thing. When asked today, if at the time military action began, did they think taking military action was the right or wrong thing, under half (46%) say they thought then taking military action was the right thing to do while two in five (39%) thought it was the wrong thing.

Currently, just over one-third (35%) say taking military action was the right thing to do while 46 percent believe it was the wrong thing. As times goes on, how will this number change?

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,694 adults surveyed online between August 7 and 13, 2007 by Harris Interactive®.

Looking at the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq, one in five (20%) say it is getting better while 42 percent believe it is getting worse and three in ten say there has been no real change. In May, 18 percent of U.S. adults said things were getting better for the troops, while 46 percent believed things were getting worse.

In the early days of the war in Iraq, Americans were split on the casualty issue. In July 2003, half (51%) of Americans believe the level of U.S. casualties was unfortunate, but acceptable while 43 percent believed the level was unacceptable. When asked today, there is no longer any divide as three in five (60%) believe the level of casualties is unacceptable while one-third (33%) say they are unfortunate, but acceptable.

When it comes to keeping the troops in Iraq, there has definitely been a large change of opinion since 2003. In May of that year, just under half (45%) of Americans believed U.S. troops should stay in Iraq whether or not most people there want them to stay, while three in ten (31%) believed they should stay only if most people there want them to stay, and just 12 percent felt the troops should leave now. Fast forward four years and two in five (42%) Americans believe the troops should leave now, while just 23 percent believe they should stay whether or not most people there want them to stay and 21 percent believe they should stay only if most people there want them to stay.

TABLE 1

MILITARY ACTION – RIGHT OR WRONG THING TO DO

"Thinking about everything that has happened, do you think that taking military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?"

Base: All Adults

	2003		2004
	Sept	Nov	Jan	Feb	March	April	May	June	July	Sept	Dec
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right thing	55	49	55	52	51	49	47	44	43	43	43
Wrong thing	32	37	31	34	33	37	38	42	42	43	43
Not sure	13	13	15	14	16	14	14	14	15	13	14

	2005						2006
	Jan	March	May	July	Oct	Dec	Jan	March	May	Sept	Nov
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right thing	39	41	39	38	34	35	40	37	38	39	36
Wrong thing	46	45	48	49	53	53	46	48	47	44	46
Not sure	15	15	13	14	13	12	13	15	15	17	18

	2007
	Jan	March	May	Aug.
	%	%	%	%
Right thing	37	34	36	35
Wrong thing	46	46	45	46
Not sure	17	19	19	20

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2

MILITARY ACTION – RGHT OR WRONG IN BEGINNING

"At the time military action began, did you think that taking military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?"

Base: All Adults

	Total
	%
Right thing	46
Wrong thing	39
Not sure	15

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 3

SITUATION FOR U.S. TROOPS – GETTING BETTER OR WORSE

"Do you think that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is…?"

Base: All Adults

	2004
	Jan	Feb	March	April	May	June	July	Sept	Dec
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Getting better	24	22	24	9	11	19	18	15	18
Getting worse	36	38	38	64	65	49	45	54	50
No real change	31	31	30	20	19	26	30	26	25
Not sure	8	9	8	6	5	6	7	6	6

	2005						2006
	Jan	March	May	July	Sept	Dec	Jan	March	May	Sept	Nov
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Getting better	13	21	21	17	19	20	22	17	20	17	9
Getting worse	53	41	39	44	43	43	36	46	43	45	58
No real change	28	33	34	35	33	32	35	32	31	31	27
Not sure	6	6	6	4	5	5	7	6	5	7	6

	2007
	Jan	March	May	August
	%	%	%	%
Getting better	13	13	18	20
Getting worse	55	51	46	42
No real change	26	28	29	30
Not sure	7	8	8	8

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 4

LEVEL OF CASUALTIES ACCEPTABLE OR NOT?

"Do you think that the level of U.S. casualties in Iraq is . . . ?"

Base: All Adults

	2003			2004								2007
	July	Sept.	Nov.	Jan.	Feb.	March	April	May	June	July	Sept.	Aug.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Unfortunate but acceptable	51	47	44	44	43	44	42	41	40	38	40	33
Unacceptable	43	47	51	49	49	49	51	52	53	54	54	60
Not sure	6	6	5	7	9	7	7	7	7	8	5	7

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5

KEEPING TROOPS IN IRAQ

"Do you think U.S. troops should stay in Iraq…?"

Base: All Adults

	2003		2007
	May	July	August
	%	%	%
Whether or not most people there want them to stay	45	31	23
Only if most people there want them to stay	31	36	21
Neither/they should leave now	12	18	42
Not sure	12	14	14

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

Methodology

This Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between August 7and 13, 2007 among 2,694 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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