The Harris Poll^® #91, September 18, 2007

Views on Social Issues and Their Potential Impact on the Presidential Election

U.S. adults’ views on eight different social issues are somewhat mixed. On some issues, such as the death penalty, embryonic stem cell research, and separation of church and state, majorities of the public indicate their strong support, but on other issues, including gay rights, physician assisted suicide and affirmative action, the level of support is much less. Only on one of the issues, same sex marriage, do more of the public oppose the issue than support it. Significant numbers further acknowledge that these issues might influence their vote in next year’s presidential election.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll^®, a nationwide survey of 2,694 adults conducted online between August 7 and 13, 2007 by Harris Interactive®.

Specifically, the survey finds the U.S. adult public views on eight social issues as follows:

• Almost two-thirds (64%) support the death penalty with 19 percent opposing and 12 percent saying that they neither support nor oppose;
• Fifty-seven percent of U.S. adults support research into embryonic stem cells with 19 percent opposing and 15 percent indicating neither support nor opposition;
• Fifty-six percent support separation of church and state. Again, one in five (19 percent) oppose and 17 percent are neutral; and
• Just over half (52%) support abortion rights with almost three in ten (29%) saying they oppose and 15 percent mentioning that they neither support nor oppose.

For a few other issues the level of support (or opposition) is not as clear-cut:

• Gay rights are supported by 40 percent with one-third (33%) opposing and 22 percent saying neither;
• Physician assisted suicide is supported by 39 percent and opposed by 31 percent. One in five (21%) neither supports nor opposes; and
• Thirty-six percent support affirmative action though three in ten (29%) oppose the issue. A significant quarter (24%) doesn’t oppose or support.

Same sex marriage is the only issue where the opposition is higher than support. A plurality (46%) says they oppose and 31 percent indicate support. Another one in five (19%) neither oppose not support.

Not surprisingly, there are substantial differences in the attitudes of Republicans, Democrats and Independents. Majorities of Republicans overwhelmingly support the death penalty (78%) and oppose same-sex marriages (71%), gay rights (56%), and abortion rights (53%). However, Democratic majorities support embryonic stem cell research (68%), abortion rights (66%), gay rights (54%) and interestingly death penalty (54%).

Finally, among Independents, majorities support embryonic stem cell research (64%), the death penalty (63%), separation of church and state (60%) and abortion rights (59%).

In addition to asking whether adults support or oppose the various issues, The Harris Poll also wanted to find out if a candidate’s position on these issues might influence the vote for president next year:

• Topping the list, over four in ten (43%) say that abortion rights would influence their vote. Following this issue significant numbers say that same sex marriage (39%), embryonic stem cell research (35%), gay rights (34%) and separation of church and state (33%) would influence their vote.
• Other issues – death penalty (24%), affirmative action (21%) and physician assisted suicide (19%) – garner smaller numbers.

Only 21 percent say that none of these issues might influence the adult public’s vote. When looking at this by party, only one issue garners majority support. Half (51%) of Republicans say same sex marriage is so important to them that a candidate’s position on it might influence their vote.

Obviously, it is far too soon to determine exactly which issues will have the most impact. However, these findings suggest that these issues might have some role especially in a close election.

"On another topic, for each of the following issues, please indicate how you feel?"

Base: All U.S. Adults

"On another topic, for each of the following issues, please indicate how you feel?"

Base: All U.S. adults

"On another topic, for each of the following issues, please indicate how you feel?"

Base: All U.S. adults

"Which of these issues are so important to you that a candidate’s position on the issue might influence your vote in next year’s presidential election?"

Base: All U.S. adults

This Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between August 7 and 13, 2007 among 2,694 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

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