Support for Roe v. Wade Increases Significantly, Reaches Highest Level in Nine Years

The Harris Poll^® has been measuring attitudes toward the Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion ever since it was handed down by the Supreme Court in 1973. During the 34 years since, Harris Polls found majorities, between 49 and 65 percent of all U.S. adults, in favor of Roe v. Wade.

The latest Harris Poll finds that support for Roe v. Wade has increased fairly significantly in a relatively short time. A majority – 56 percent – now favors the U.S. Supreme Court decision, the highest level since 1998 and an increase of seven percentage points from just last year when a slender 49 to 47 percent is supported the decision. Furthermore, only 20 percent of U.S. adults favor not permitting a woman to get an abortion under any circumstances.

This Harris Poll also finds that a substantial 69 to 24 percent majority of all adults do not think it is likely that this Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade. (Of course, that is not a prediction).

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 1,052 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive^® between October 16 and 23, 2007.

Other interesting findings from The Harris Poll include:

• A quarter (25%) favor permitting abortion in "all circumstances", 52 percent favor abortion is "some circumstances" and 20 percent do not favor abortion in any circumstances. These opinions have not shifted much in the past year;
• While it is perhaps not surprising that most Democrats (63%) favor Roe v. Wade and half of Republicans (51%) oppose it, substantial percentages disagree. Over four in ten (45%) Republicans favor Roe v. Wade and a third (33%) of Democrats oppose it;
• Interestingly, the percentage of Republicans who favor it has significantly increased (from 37 percent to the current 45 percent) in the past year and the percentage of Democrats who oppose the U.S. Supreme Court decision has decreased (from 43 percent to the current 33 percent);
• Heading into the 2008 election year, it is worth noting that a majority of Independents (61 to 36 percent) favors Roe v. Wade. In 2006 the comparable views of Independents were 56 to 37 percent.

From 1998 until this year, the U.S. adult public’s support for Roe v. Wade had been declining. A year ago, The Harris Poll reported that Roe v. Wade was supported "only by a slender 49 percent to 47 percent plurality" – "support and opposition are almost equal". Today, a majority now supports the U.S. Supreme Court decision (56% vs. 40%) and almost seven in ten think that the U.S. Supreme Court decision will remain unchanged. What might explain such a shift in 18 months?

With the 2008 election about a year in the future and the first caucuses and primaries only two months away, there has been perhaps much more heightened interest in the many candidates’ positions on social issues. Also, President Bush is very unpopular at the moment in large part due to the situation in Iraq. This unpopularity may also be leading to be less support for more conservative positions in general. This perhaps is best seen in the strong support for former New York City mayor, Rudolph Giuliani, among Republicans, in spite of his positions on gun control, gay rights and abortion, and lack of support for Senator Sam Brownback, a conservative who recently dropped out of the race for Republican nomination. This is new evidence of the diminished influence of the Christian Right.

According to The Harris Poll and other polls, Giuliani continues to lead in the race for the Republican nomination. This has surprised many who expected his lead not to last as long as it has. This support can perhaps be partially explained by the fact that the country is more likely to support positions on controversial issues such as abortion. Of course, there is still a long time left before the election, and a candidate like Giuliani might still falter as he is scrutinized even more in the weeks and months ahead. Still his position on abortion and other social issues may not be that far from what the voting public (including many Republicans) want.

"In 1973, the U.S. Supreme Court decided that states laws which made it illegal for a woman to have an abortion up to three months of pregnancy were unconstitutional, and that the decision on whether a woman should have an abortion up to three months of pregnancy should be left to the woman and her doctor to decide. In general, do you favor or oppose this part of the U.S. Supreme Court decision making abortions up to three months of pregnancy legal?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"In 1973, the U.S. Supreme Court decided that states laws which made it illegal for a woman to have an abortion up to three months of pregnancy were unconstitutional, and that the decision on whether a woman should have an abortion up to three months of pregnancy should be left to the woman and her doctor to decide. In general, do you favor or oppose this part of the U.S. Supreme Court decision making abortions up to three months of pregnancy legal?

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"In general, do you favor permitting a woman who wants one to have an abortion in all circumstances, some circumstances or no circumstances?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Still thinking about the 1973 Supreme Court ruling, over the next few years do you think it is likely that this U.S. Supreme Court decision will be overturned or do you think the law will remain unchanged?

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Do you favor laws that would make it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion, favor laws that would make it easier to get an abortion or should no change be made to existing abortion laws?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between October 16 and 23, 2007 among 1,052 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region, number of adults in the household, size of place (urbanicity) and number of phone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

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