The Harris Poll® #116, November 19, 2007

Rudy Giuliani continues to expand his lead over Fred Thompson for the Republican presidential nomination. Just over one-third (34%) of those who say they would vote in a Republican primary or caucus would now vote for Rudy Giuliani, up from 31 percent last month. As Giuliani has edged up, Fred Thompson has moved down. This month, only one in five (20%) Republican primary voters or caucus goers would vote for Thompson down from 26 percent last month. Mitt Romney and John McCain hold steady in third and fourth place respectively (Romney at 16% and McCain at 13%).

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to slowly expand her lead over the rest of the Democrats. Just over half (52%) of those who say they would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus now favor Clinton, while three in ten (29%) would vote for Senator Barack Obama. Both candidates have seen slight increases in support this month; since The Harris Poll^® is no longer including Al Gore on the list of candidates, his supporters have split among the two frontrunners. John Edwards is at 11 percent of the Democratic vote, almost unchanged from last month’s 12 percent. No other contenders get more than three percent of the vote.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,564 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive^® between November 2 and 12, 2007. This survey included 827 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and 565 adults who expect to vote in a Republican primary or caucus. Like all polls conducted well before an election, this should not be read as a prediction, rather as a snap shot of the presidential "horse races", early in the race. Furthermore, many people who say they will vote in a primary or caucus almost certainly will not do so.

Among Democrats, there are interesting regional differences that point to some ‘home’ region support. In the East, Hillary Clinton’s lead is even larger over Barack Obama (62% versus 18%) but he edges ahead in the Midwest (42% versus 41%). John Edwards does a little better in the South (14%), but still well below the two frontrunners.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani stays on top regardless of the region, but the race for second place shows some differences. In the East, Mitt Romney has some home region support as he comes in second with 22 percent. In the West, there is large bunching after Giuliani. Both Mitt Romney and John McCain have 17 percent of the likely Republican votes, with Fred Thompson is right behind them at 15 percent.

Rudy Giuliani does better among women then among men as two in five (41%) Republican women would vote for the former NYC mayor. One in five women (19%) would vote for Mitt Romney and 17 percent for Fred Thompson. Among men, just over one-quarter (28%) would vote for Giuliani and just under one-quarter (22%) would vote for Fred Thompson. John McCain comes in third (16%) then Mitt Romney (14%) among Republican men.

Hillary Clinton does better among women than among men. Over half of Democratic women (56%) would vote for her compared to just under half (47%) of Democratic men. Barack Obama comes in second for both men (28%) and women (30%). One interesting difference is when one takes a closer look at Democratic women. Two-thirds of married Democratic women (66%) would vote for Clinton compared to 42 percent of single Democratic women. The top choice for these single women is Barack Obama; 44 percent would vote for him.

Much has been made of Hillary Clinton’s debate performance and the tightening of some of the state polls. Nationally however, her lead not only remains strong, but continues to grow. On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is in third place in the national survey, but presumably to the attention he is paying to the early primary states, he is ahead or much closer to the leader in many of these states. While much has been made of the "nationalization" of this primary season with so many states holding primaries and caucuses so close to each other (if not on the Super, Super Tuesday of February 5^th), it is not a national primary. Presidential races are won, and lost, on the state level and, in the next few weeks, that is where the focus for these candidates will be. It is nice, however, when they can go into the states showing such a commanding national lead, as Hillary Clinton can now.

"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for president in the Democratic primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which one person would you be most likely to vote?

Base: Those who would vote in Democratic primary or caucus

Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

n/a = Al Gore was not asked about this month

*Less than 0.5% "-"No response

"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for president in the Democratic primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which one person would you be most likely to vote?

Base: Those who would vote in Democratic primary or caucus

Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

*Less than 0.5% "-"No response

"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for president in the Republican primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which one person would you be most likely to vote?

Base: Those who would vote in Republican primary or caucus

*Less than 0.5%

N/A = Not asked as Sam Brownback and Chuck Hagel announced they would not continue their run/run for president

"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for president in the Republican primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which one person would you be most likely to vote?

Base: Those who would vote in Republican primary or caucus

*Less than 0.5% "-"No response

This Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between November 2 and 12, 2007 among 2,564 adults, 827 of whom said they would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and 565 of whom said they would vote in a Republican primary or caucus (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

J 30279B (November)

Q2036, 2040