The Harris Poll® #117, November 21, 2007

Looking ahead into the future, and the year 2020, most people in five European countries and the U.S. believe that the dominant world power will either be the United States or China. But, there is some disagreement over which one of these will actually be the most dominant country. Pluralities in France (47%), Spain (45%) and Italy (38%) believe that China will be the dominant world power. A plurality of adults in the United States (40%) as well as one-third of British adults (32%) and 30 percent of Germans all say the U.S. will be the dominant world power in 2020.

These are some of the results of a Financial Times/Harris Poll conducted online by Harris Interactive® among a total of 6,590 adults aged 16 to 64 within France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain, the United States, and adults aged 18 to 64 in Italy, between November 1 and 14, 2007.

Looking more specifically at China, majorities in Italy (69%), France (63%), Germany (57%) and France all believe that China should be regarded more as a competitor of Europe than as a partner. A plurality of Spaniards (43%) also believe this, but one-third (33%) believe China should be regarded as a partner – the highest proportion in the European countries to feel this way. In the U.S., a majority of adults (58%) believe China should be regarded more as a competitor of the U.S. than as a partner.

Russia is viewed differently than China. Majorities in Italy (61%), Germany (55%), Spain (52%) and France (50%) believe Russia should be regarded more as a partner of Europe, not a competitor. Adults in Great Britain are a little more divided as just over one-third (34%) say Russia should be regarded more as a competitor, three in ten (31%) say it should be viewed as a partner of Europe and just over one-third (35%) are not sure. For Americans, a plurality (43%) believes Russia should be regarded more as a competitor of the U.S. while one-quarter (22%) say partner.

Strong majorities in all six countries believe that European or U.S. governments are right to speak out about possible human rights abuses in Russia and China. In fact, the replies given in relation to China and Russia are almost identical for each in the six countries. It seems that this is a case where it is more the issue of human rights rather than the country involved which determines public attitudes.

While 2020 is only 13 years away, large numbers of adults in these six countries believe that China will be the dominant world power. At the same time, China is regarded more as a competitor, than as a partner. How these two perceptions align in the future have both economic and political implications.

"Thinking now of the future and the year 2020, which, if any, of the following countries or regions will be the dominant world power?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

* = less than 0.5%

"Should China be regarded more as a partner of [EUROPE/the U.S] or more as a competitor?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"Should Russia be regarded more as a partner of [EUROPE/the U.S] or more as a competitor?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"[Are European governments/Is the U.S. government] right to speak out about possible human rights abuses in Russia or not?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"[Are European governments/Is the U.S. government] right to speak out about possible human rights abuses in China or not?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

This FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive among a total of 6,590 adults (aged 16-64) within France (1,075), Germany (1,114), Great Britain (1,117), Spain (1,076) and the United States (1,108) and adults (aged 18-64) in Italy (1,100) between 1 and 14 November 2007. Figures for age, sex, education, region and Internet usage were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult populations of the respective countries. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

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Q1600, 1605, 1610, 1615, 1620