The Harris Poll® #118 , November 28, 2007

Sunglasses or umbrella, that’s the question many Americans ask as they leave their homes each morning. A plurality (44%) say they are most likely to rely on local television news for their weather forecasts followed by 17 percent who say they turn to The Weather Channel and the same number (17%) are likely to go online to a national weather website. Less than one in ten Americans will use the radio (8%), their local newspaper or television website (6%) and their local newspaper (3%) for their forecasts. Half (51%) of Matures (those 62 and older) use local television news for their forecasts while younger generations, such as Echo Boomers (18-30) and Generation X (31-42) are more likely to go to national weather websites (25% and 21% respectively).

A plurality (44%) also say these forecasts are mostly accurate only for the next day while just over one-quarter (28%) believe weather forecasts are accurate for the next three days. Just four percent say the weekly forecasts are accurate while two percent believe long term forecasts are usually accurate. Just over one in six (17%), however, believe that forecasters really don’t know. Men are more likely than women to believe three day forecasts are accurate (32% versus 25%) while women are more likely to believe the next day forecasts are accurate (48% versus 39%).

These are some of the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 2,455 U.S. adults surveyed online between November 7 and 13, 2007 by Harris Interactive®.

Weather forecasts are things people rely upon and, when they are wrong, it has an impact. Half of Americans (51%) say that they have frequently or occasionally made a decision, about what to wear or for an outdoor event, for example, in the past few months that has turned out to be wrong. Just over two in five (44%) say they have rarely or never made a decision that has turned out to be wrong. The Midwest seems to have the more volatile weather as over half (56%) of those living there have frequently or occasionally made a wrong decision about what to wear or an outdoor event, followed by 54 percent of those in the East. The South may be a bit more stable as just under half (48%) say they rarely or never have made a wrong decision, but much of this could be due to the long term drought inflicting that region and the fact there has not been much variation in their weather.

Looking ahead to this winter, just over one-quarter (27%) of U.S. adults believe the temperatures will be warmer than normal while the same number believes the temperatures will be cooler. Two in five (39%) say temperatures will be about the same as they normally are. Thinking of precipitation, three in ten Americans (29%) say the rain or snow will be les than normal while one in five (19%) believe it will be more than it normally is. A plurality (43%), however, thinks the rain or snow will be about the same. Those in the South and West, both undergoing droughts, are a bit more pessimistic about their long term prospects for rain as just over one third in each region (34% and 35% respectively) believe there will be less precipitation then there normally is. In the East they are more likely to expect more rain or snow (27%) and cooler temperatures (32%).

Among those individuals who believe this winter will be different, over two-thirds (69%) believe global climate change may be the reason. One-third (33%) definitely think so while 36 percent say it maybe the reason. Just one in five (20%) do not believe global climate change is the reason for these changes. Those who think the temperatures will be warmer (78%) and who think there will be less rain or snow (75%) are more likely to think global climate change is behind these changes.

"While you may look at all of these occasionally, where are you most likely to get your weather forecasts?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Note: * = less than 0.5%; - = no response

"In general, how accurate do you believe weather forecasts are today?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"How often have you made a decision, about what to wear or for an outdoor event, for example, in the past few months that has turned out to be wrong?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"Looking to this upcoming winter, do you think the temperature will be…? "

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"Still thinking about this winter, do you think the rain or snow will be…? "

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"Do you believe the difference this winter will be because of global climate change? "

Base: Believe This Winter Will Be Different

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

This Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive among a total of 2,455 U.S. adults November 7 and 13, 2007 ages 18 and over. Figures for age, sex, education, region and Internet usage were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult populations of the respective countries. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

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