The Harris Poll® #130, December 21, 2007

Giuliani Still Leads Republicans, With Huckabee Surging into Second Place While Hillary Maintains Lead Among Democrats

The past month has shown a lot of changes among Republicans in the race for the presidential nomination. While Rudy Giuliani is still the frontrunner, his lead has shrunk and a new person has quickly jumped into second place. One-quarter of those who would vote in a Republican primary or caucus (25%) would vote for Rudy Giuliani, down from 34 percent in November. One in five Republicans (21%) now says they would vote for Mike Huckabee, who last month garnered only nine percent of the vote. Still in third is Mitt Romney (18%), up from 16 percent last month, and dropping from second place to fourth place is Fred Thompson with 16 percent. Just over one in ten (11%) would vote for John McCain.

On the Democratic side, things are more stable. Just under half of those who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus (48%) would vote for Hillary Clinton while three in ten (30%) would vote for Barack Obama. Support for Hillary Clinton has dropped very slightly (from 52% in November) while Barack Obama’s is virtually unchanged. John Edwards is still in third place, with 13 percent of the vote. The other five Democrats are at five percent or less.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 1,792 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive® between December 7 and 17, 2007. This survey included 552 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and 355 adults who expect to vote in a Republican primary or caucus. Like all polls conducted well before an election, this should not be read as a prediction, rather as a snap shot of the presidential "horse races" in both parties, early in the race. Furthermore, many people who say they will vote in a primary or caucus almost certainly will not do so.

Looking at the generational divide, Hillary Clinton had support from half of Baby Boomers (those aged 43-61) and 51 percent of both Generation X (those aged 18-30) and Matures (those aged 62 and older). Her "weakest" support is among Echo Boomers (those aged 18-30) as just two in five of this generation (40%) would vote for her. This drop in support does not go to Barack Obama, but to Dennis Kucinich as 13 percent of this youngest generation would vote for him. Obama is in second among Generation X and Baby Boomers, but drops to third for Matures as John Edwards moves into second place among this age group.

Among Republicans, the generational differences are more striking. Rudy Giuliani is the top choice for Echo Boomers followed by Mike Huckabee (28% and 21% respectively), but John McCain moves into third place (19%) and Ron Paul jumps into 4^th place with 18 percent of this generation’s support. Just over one-third (35%) of Generation X supports Giuliani, but second place goes to Fred Thompson (19%). Among Baby Boomers, Giuliani and Mitt Romney are tied with 23 percent each, followed by Huckabee and Thompson each with 18 percent. Among Matures, Giuliani drops to fourth place with 17 percent. Just over one-quarter (27%) of this oldest generation would vote for Mike Huckabee, while one in five (20%) would vote for Mitt Romney and 18 percent for Fred Thompson.

Regardless of who people may vote for, just under half of Americans (47%) believe that Hillary Clinton will most likely be the Democratic candidate for U.S. president next November while one in five (21%) believe the Democratic candidate will be Barack Obama. All other candidates are at 6 percent or less and 24 percent are not at all sure. Three in five Democrats (60%) believe Hillary will be the nominee, as do 38 percent of Republicans and 41 percent of Independents.

On the Republican side, three in ten (29%) Americans believe Rudy Giuliani will be the nominee followed by 13 percent who believe it will be Mike Huckabee and 10 percent who say Mitt Romney. All other candidates are under 10 percent while one-third of Americans (33%) are not at all sure who will be the Republican nominee. Among Republicans, two in five (42%) say Rudy Giuliani will be the nominee with 14 percent saying Mitt Romney. One-quarter of Democrats (26%) and Independents (25%) say it will be Rudy.

In just two weeks, the first votes will be cast and, looking at various states the race seems to be in flux. Nationally, things for Democrats are clearer and more stable as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama end this year the way they began it. Looking at the Republican race, things there have also been consistent – but this consistency is inconsistency. While Rudy Giuliani has been in the lead most of the year, his lead fluctuated time and again and he has seen the ebb and flow of the second, third and fourth places month after month. While most people are focused on friends and family between now and early January, those in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina will be treated to a special holiday serving of politics. What these early voters do will have a large impact of the shape of this race next month, as candidates gain or fail to generate "momentum".

"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for president in the Democratic primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which one person would you be most likely to vote?

Base: Those who would vote in Democratic primary or caucus

Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

*Less than 0.5% "-"No response

"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for president in the Democratic primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which one person would you be most likely to vote?

Base: Those who would vote in Democratic primary or caucus

Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

*Less than 0.5% "-"No response

"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for president in the Republican primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which one person would you be most likely to vote?

Base: Those who would vote in Republican primary or caucus

*Less than 0.5%

"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for president in the Republican primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which one person would you be most likely to vote?

Base: Those who would vote in Republican primary or caucus

*Less than 0.5% "-"No response

"Regardless of who you might personally vote for, who do you think will most likely be the Democratic candidate for U.S. president in November 2008?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

*Less than 0.5% "-"No response

"Regardless of who you might personally vote for, who do you think will most likely be the Republican candidate for U.S. president in November 2008?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

*Less than 0.5% "-"No response

This Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between December 7 and 17, 2007 among 1,792 adults, 552 of whom said they would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and 355 of whom said they would vote in a Republican primary or caucus (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

J 30279B (December)

Q2036, 2040, 2310, 2315