The Harris Poll^® #4, January 9, 2008

Political commentators and journalists often use the phrase "moral values" to mean the issues of importance to some conservatives and members of the "Christian Right", issues such as abortion, gay rights, same-sex marriage and stem cell research. In fact, when the public uses the phrase, only a few people are referring to these issues. Most people who say that moral values are very important to them in deciding how to vote (46% of all adults) say that what they mean are the characters of the candidates – such as honesty, integrity, trustworthiness and their likelihood of "doing the right thing".

These are some of the results of a new Harris Poll of 2,335 adults surveyed online between December 4 and 12, 2007.

Using the phrase as the public understands it, moral values are important to most people (85%) when deciding whom to vote for, and are "very important" to fully 46 percent of the public.

Republicans (63%) are much more likely than Democrats (37%) or Independents (38%) to believe that moral values are very important in their choice of candidates – a finding that is consistent with the common assumption that "values voters" tend to be an important part of the Republican base. Unsurprisingly, Conservatives (64%) are also more likely than Moderates (41%) or Liberals (33%) to believe moral values are very important criteria for their voting decisions. These numbers are virtually identical to the replies given in a Harris Poll conducted soon after the 2004 Presidential election on the importance of moral values then.

Of all the people who say moral values are very important in deciding how to vote, less than a third (30%) are referring to the candidates’ positions on issues, with by far the largest number (14%) referring to abortion. In addition, they mention gay rights (3%), that marriage is between a man and woman (3%) and gay marriage (3%). A few, but only a very few, mention homosexuality (1%), and stem cell research (1%).

The greatest majority (78%) of these voters mentions personal characteristics of the candidates including their honesty (28%), integrity (11%), ethical values (8%), and someone who does the right thing (8%), is trustworthy (7%), truthful (6%) or keeps his/her word (6%).

However it is not quite as clear cut as these numbers. Some, but not many, of these "moral values voters" mention personal characteristics associated with the Christian Right such as "Christian/or believes in the Bible (6%), their religious views (5%), belief in God or Christ (4%), or the 10 Commandments (2%). Overall, however, it is very clear that when most people talk about the importance of moral values they are not referring to the agenda of the Christian Right.

As part of this poll those surveyed were asked which of a list of 12 issues are most important to them in deciding how to vote. Overall, among all adults, the two so-called "moral values" issues in the list, abortion and gay rights are by far the least important. Health care, Social Security, economic issues, taxes, the war in Iraq, the war on terror, immigration, education and the environment are all important to many more voters.

That is not a surprise. What is surprising is that the replies given to this question are broadly similar for those who think moral values are very important and those who do not think this way. Among those who believe moral values are very important only 13 percent mention abortion and 6 percent mention gay rights – far behind almost all the other issues.

These findings show that pollsters, journalists and commentators must be very careful not to assume that voters who feel strongly about "moral values" are primarily concerned with issues such as abortion, homosexuality, gay marriage, stem cell research, gun control or any of the other issues often associated with the Christian Right or the Conservative base of the Republican party.

This will be particularly important in the final pre-election polls and exit polls. In 2004 many commentators assumed wrongly that voters who said moral values influenced their votes were referring to these issues, and as a result some pundits greatly overestimated their impact on the election.

"How important are moral values to you in deciding which candidate to vote for?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to rounding

Note: These numbers are very similar to the replies given to a Harris Poll question asked just after the 2004 presidential election: "How important were moral values to you in deciding which candidate to vote for" The replies were: Very important (45%), Somewhat important (35%), Not very important (12%), Not at all important (8%).

"What do you mean when you say that moral values are very important to you?"

Base: Said Values Very Important

Note: Percentages add to more than 100% because respondents could give multiple responses

"What do you mean when you say that moral values are very important to you?"

Base: Said Values Very Important

Note: Also mentioned by one percent: loyalty, golden rule, my values, be kind to others, conservative, perseverance, honor, justice and courage.

Twelve percent mentioned other personal characteristics, but no one characteristic was mentioned by more than 0.5 percent.

Respondents could give multiple responses.

"What do you mean when you say that moral values are very important to you?"

Base: Said Values Very Important

Note: Eleven percent mentioned candidates’ positions on other issues, but no single issue was mentioned by more than 0.5 percent.

Respondents could give multiple responses.

"Looking at the list of issues, which two or three are most important to you in deciding which presidential candidate you would vote for?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Questions such as this where respondents are shown or read a list generate different answers than unprompted, open-ended questions where no issues are mentioned.

Respondents gave 2 or 3 answers

This Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between December 4 and 14, 2007 among 2,335 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
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