Harris Interactive | The Harris Poll - Big Drop in Confidence in Leaders of Major Institutions

The Harris Poll^® #22, February 28, 2008

Big Drop in Confidence in Leaders of Major Institutions

Leaders of the Military Only One of 16 Categories to Improve Since Last Year

Over the past four decades, the Harris Poll has measured the confidence, or lack of confidence, in the leaders of major institutions. This year’s survey finds that confidence has declined substantially since last year. Fifteen of the sixteen items listed show a fall in confidence and the overall Harris Interactive Confidence Index has fallen nine points this year.

The largest declines in those who have a "great deal of confidence" are for medicine (down from 37% to 28%), leadership in the White House (down from 22% last year to 15%) and for the relatively highly rated small business leaders (down from 54% to 47%).

Only one institution shows an improvement. Those who have a great deal of confidence in leaders of the military have increased from 46 percent to 51 percent. This almost certainly reflects a sense that the situation in Iraq is improving and the so-called "surge" has been somewhat successful. It may also reflect public confidence in General David Petraeus, the commander in Iraq.

These are the results of a Harris Poll of 1,010 adults surveyed by telephone between February 5 and 11, 2008.

As a result of the fall in confidence levels, the Harris Interactive Confidence Index had dropped very sharply from 53 in 2007 to 44 this year. This is the lowest it has been in eleven years.

This poll also shows significant declines in the number of people who have a great deal of confidence in:

Wall Street, down six points from 17 percent to only 11 percent (reflecting, presumably, the decline of the stock market);
Major Educational Institutions, down five points from 37 percent to 32 percent;

The Courts and the Justice Systems, also down five points from 21 percent to 16 percent.

Institutions at the Top of the List

In this year’s survey the leaders of six institutions enjoy the most confidence:

The military (51% have a great deal of confidence);
Small business (47%);
Major educational institutions (32%);
Medicine (28%);
Organized religion (25%);
The Supreme Court (25%).

Institutions at the Bottom of the List

Leaders of the following institution engender the lowest levels of confidence:

The Congress (only 8% have a great deal of confidence);
The press (10%);
Organized labor (11%);
Wall Street (11%);
Major companies (14%).

Republicans Have More Confidence in the Leaders of Some Institutions and Democrats Have More Confidence in Others

Republicans tend to have more confidence than Democrats in the leaders of:

The military (76% vs. 37%);
Small business (58% vs. 40%);
Medicine (38% vs. 24%);
The Supreme Court (37% vs. 20%);
Organized religion (35% vs. 21%);
The White House (30% vs. 7%);
Major companies (21% vs. 12%);
Wall Street (15% vs. 9%).

Democrats, on the other hand, tend to have more confidence in the leaders of:

Major educational institutions (39% vs. 25%);
Television news (22% vs. 13%);
Organized labor (17% vs. 6%);
The press (17% vs. 5%);
Congress (11% vs. 6%).

Why Confidence Levels Rise and Fall and Why Have They Fallen this Year?

The Harris Poll measures the changing levels of confidence from year to year but it does not explain why they change. We can provide plausible explanations for some, but not all of the changes.

We believe that al least two forces change these numbers. One is specific events (or public perception of events). These would explain the higher level of confidence in the military and the lower level of confidence in the White House (parallel to the recent decline in President Bush’s ratings).

Another explanation is the halo effect from general mood of the country that appears to raise or lower the levels of confidence in leaders generally when things seem to be going well, confidence rise – and vice versa.

However, sometimes confidence in specific institutions rises or falls for reasons we do not understand. In this year’s survey we do not offer an explanation for the sharp decline in confidence in the leaders of small business or medicine. It should be noted however that both of these still do much better than most of the institutions listed.

So What?

Public perceptions of different institutions and their leaders matter. They influence behavior. Legislators and regulators are probably more likely to take a tougher line with unpopular institutions than with popular ones. The influence of Corporate America is probably hurt by the low standing of major companies but helped by the high standing of small business. As confidence in Wall Street declines, legislators may be inclined to investigate or regulate financial markets. The unpopularity of organized labor may make it harder for unions to recruit new members. This year’s increased respect for our military leaders probably increases their influence on Capitol Hill. In a democracy, popularity and unpopularity often make a difference.

TABLE 1

CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (2008)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Base: All Adults

	A Great Deal of Confidence	Only some Confidence	Hardly Any Confidence At All	Not Sure	Decline To Answer
	%	%	%	%	%
The military	51	34	15	1	*
Small business	47	45	5	3	1
Major educational institutions, such as colleges and universities	32	49	15	4	*
Medicine	28	46	23	1	*
The U.S. Supreme Court	25	55	16	3	-
Organized religion	25	46	24	3	1
Public schools	20	54	25	1	*
The courts and the justice system	16	55	27	1	*
Television news	16	55	29	1	*
The White House	15	41	41	2	1
Major companies	14	53	29	2	1
Organized labor	11	53	29	6	1
Wall Street	11	52	27	9	1
The press	10	48	41	1	*
Law firms	10	52	33	4	1
Congress	8	50	39	2	1

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

* Less Than 0.5%

TABLE 2A

CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (2001-2008)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Those saying "a great deal of confidence"

Base: All Adults

	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	Change 2007-2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The military	44	71	62	62	47	47	46	51	+5
Small business	X	X	X	X	47	45	54	47	-7
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	35	33	31	37	39	38	37	32	-5
Medicine	32	29	31	32	29	31	37	28	-9
Organized religion	25	23	19	27	27	30	27	25	-2
The U.S. Supreme Court	35	41	34	29	29	33	27	25	-2
Public schools	X	X	X	X	26	22	22	20	-2
The courts and the justice system	X	X	X	X	22	21	21	16	-5
Television news	24	24	21	17	16	19	20	16	-4
The White House	21	50	40	31	31	25	22	15	-7
Major companies	20	16	13	12	17	13	16	14	-2
Wall Street	23	19	12	17	15	15	17	11	-6
Organized labor	15	11	14	15	17	12	15	11	-4
Law firms	10	13	12	10	11	10	13	10	-3
The press	13	16	15	15	12	14	12	10	-2
Congress	18	22	20	13	16	10	10	8	-2
The executive branch of the federal government	20	33	26	23	X	X	X	X	X
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	55	65	57	55	53	52	53	44	-9

X = Not asked

TABLE 2B

CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1991-2000)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Those saying "a great deal of confidence"

Base: All Adults

	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The military	X	50	57	39	43	47	37	44	54	48
Small business	47	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	X	29	23	25	27	30	27	37	37	36
The U.S. Supreme Court	15	30	26	31	32	31	28	37	42	34
Medicine	23	22	22	23	26	29	29	38	39	44
Organized religion	21	11	X	X	24	X	20	25	27	26
The White House	X	25	23	18	13	15	15	20	22	21
Public schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The courts and the justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Television news	9	12	23	20	16	21	18	26	23	20
Wall Street	14	13	13	15	13	17	17	18	30	30
The press	X	X	15	13	11	14	11	14	15	13
Major companies	20	10	16	19	21	21	18	21	23	28
Organized labor	21	11	X	X	8	X	9	13	15	15
Congress	9	16	12	8	10	10	11	12	12	15
Law firms	X	13	11	8	9	11	7	11	10	12
The executive branch of the federal government	X	X	15	12	9	12	12	17	17	18
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	45	45	47	43	43	47	42	54	60	59

X = Not asked

TABLE 2C

CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1981-1990)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Those saying "a great deal of confidence"

Base: All Adults

	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Small business	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The military	28	31	35	45	32	36	35	33	32	43
Major educational institutions such as colleges & universities	34	30	36	40	35	34	36	34	32	35
The White House	28	20	23	42	30	19	23	17	20	14
The U.S. Supreme Court	29	25	33	35	28	32	30	32	28	32
Medicine	37	32	35	43	39	33	36	40	30	35
Organized religion	22	20	22	24	21	22	16	17	16	20
Public Schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The courts and justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Major companies	16	18	18	19	17	16	21	19	16	9
Organized labor	12	8	10	12	13	11	11	13	10	18
Congress	16	13	20	28	16	21	20	15	16	14
Television news	24	24	24	28	23	27	29	28	25	27
Wall Street	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	8	21
The press	16	14	19	18	16	19	19	18	18	12
Law firms	X	X	12	17	12	14	15	13	X	X
The executive branch of the federal government	24	X	X	X	19	18	19	16	17	14
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	51	46	53	63	51	51	53	50	46	50

X = Not asked

TABLE 2D

CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1966-1980)

"As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Those saying "a great deal of confidence"

Base: All Adults

	1966	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The military	61	27	35	40	33	24	23	27	29	29	28
Small business	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Major educational institutions such as colleges & universities	61	37	33	44	40	36	31	37	41	33	36
The U.S. Supreme Court	50	23	28	33	40	28	22	29	29	28	27
Medicine	73	61	48	57	50	43	42	43	42	30	34
Organized religion	41	27	30	36	32	32	24	29	24	20	22
The White House	X	X	X	18	28	X	11	31	14	15	18
Public schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The courts and justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Television news	X	X	X	41	31	35	28	28	35	37	29
Wall Street	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	12
The press	29	18	18	30	25	26	20	18	23	28	19
Major companies	55	27	27	29	21	19	16	20	22	18	16
Organized labor	22	14	15	20	18	14	10	14	15	10	14
Congress	42	19	21	X	18	13	9	17	10	18	18
Law firms	X	X	X	24	18	16	12	14	18	16	13
The executive branch of the federal government	41	23	27	19	28	13	11	23	14	17	17
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX	100	58	59	69	64	55	44	55	55	50	49

X = Not asked

TABLE 3

CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS; AVERAGE FOR INDEX IN EACH DECADE

	1960s		1970s		1980s		1990s		2000s
					1980	49	1990	50	2000	59
			1971	58	1981	51	1991	45	2001	55
			1972	59	1982	46	1992	45	2002	65
			1973	69	1983	53	1993	47	2003*	57
			1974	64	1984	63	1994	43	2004	55
			1975	55	1985	51	1995	43	2005	53
	1966	100	1976	44	1986	51	1996	47	2006	52
			1977	55	1987	53	1997	42	2007	53
			1978	55	1988	50	1998	54	2008	44
			1979	50	1989	46	1999	60
AVERAGE FOR DECADE	100		57		51		48		55

*Completed in December 2002

TABLE 4

CONFIDENCE LEVELS – BY PARTY

"As far as people in charge of running … are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?"

Those saying "a great deal of confidence"

Base: All Adults

	Total	Party ID
	Total	Republican	Democrat	Independent
	%	%	%	%
The military	51	76	37	45
Small business	47	58	40	43
Major educational institutions, such as colleges and universities	32	25	39	33
Medicine	28	38	24	23
The U.S. Supreme Court	25	37	20	24
Organized religion	25	35	21	19
Public schools	20	20	19	22
The courts and the justice system	16	17	18	12
Television news	16	13	22	10
The White House	15	30	7	9
Major companies	14	21	12	11
Organized labor	11	6	17	9
Wall Street	11	15	9	10
The press	10	5	17	7
Law firms	10	7	11	9
Congress	8	6	11	6

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 5 and 11, 2008 among a nationwide cross section of 1,010 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region, number of adults in the household, size of place (urbanicity), and number of phone lines voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

The Harris Interactive Confidence in Leadership Index measures changes in the public’s confidence in various institutions. It is derived in the following manner:

The index is based on the mean value of the items asked.
All items have equal weight.
The year 1966, the first year the items were asked, was set as a reference year for the index and assigned a score of 100.
In order to yield a score of 100 in 1966, the mean value of the original 10 items was multiplied by a factor of 2.11. This same factor was then applied to the mean score in subsequent years, as long as the same items were asked.
Whenever a new item is added, the multiplication factor is changed so that the new item has no effect on that year’s score. The new factor is derived by calculating the index with and without the new item(s), taking the ratio of the two scores, and multiplying this ratio by the old factor. (The current factor is 2.14).
In years when an item included in a previous year is not asked, it is assumed for calculation purposes that no change has occurred in that item since the last time it was asked.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling are subject to ,multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

J33084

Q601