The Harris Poll® #30, March 20, 2008

Strong Majorities in France, Italy, and Spain as well as Half of British Adults Believe EU Needs High Profile Figure

One of the provisions of the Lisbon Treaty is to create a basic constitutional framework for the entire European Union, including a European Union president. While this treaty still needs to be approved by each of the EU’s 27 member countries, some of them definitely agree that the EU needs a high profile figure to effectively represent it on the international stage. Over three-quarters of adults in France (81%), Italy (81%) and Spain (79%) agree that the EU needs this high profile figure, with half of adults in Italy and Spain (52% and 51% respectively) strongly agreeing.

Support in Great Britain and Germany is a bit more lukewarm. Just half of British adults agree (50%) while 28 percent disagree and almost one-quarter (22%) are not sure. In Germany, 47 percent actually disagree that the EU needs this high profile figure while 45 percent agree.

These are some of the results of a Financial Times/Harris Poll conducted online by Harris Interactive^® among a total of 6,478 adults aged 16 to 64 within France; Germany, Great Britain, Spain, the United States, and adults aged 18 to 64 in Italy, between February 27 and March 6, 2008.

When it comes to who that possible European President should be, there is not much consensus. In fact, two-thirds of British adults (66%) and just over half of Germans (54%) and French adults (52%) say they are not sure who they would be most likely to vote for among some potential candidates. Angele Merkel comes in "first" in France (18%), Italy (18%) and Germany (14%). In Great Britain, Tony Blair comes in on top with 17 percent of British adults saying they would be most likely to vote for him. Felipe Gonzales receives the largest support of any potential candidate in a country as three in ten (31%) Spaniards say they would vote for him.

Looking at Kosovo’s recent declaration of independence from Serbia, support for this declaration is mixed. Almost two-thirds of Italians (64%) support this declaration as do majorities in France (55%) and Germany (56%). Just under half (48%) of British adults support Kosovo’s declaration but only 6 percent oppose it, with 46 percent not sure. Spain is also divided. Fewer than two in five Spaniards (37%) support the declaration of independence while 35 percent oppose it and 28 percent are not sure. Looking at the United States, just over half (52%) of Americans are not sure about this issue, while 43 percent support Kosovo’s declaration of independence.

Some have suggested that the European Union should do more to promote stability in the Balkan region, and two possible ways are financial assistance or assistance in the form of security. Looking first at the idea of providing financial assistance to the region, while there is a sense of support, it is stronger in Spain and Germany. Almost three in five (59%) Spaniards support this idea while over half of Germans (54%) would oppose it. Pluralities in Italy (47%), Great Britain (43%) and France (42%) would all support providing financial assistance. Providing assistance in the form of security, however, is an idea that garners support that is stronger and more widespread. Three-quarters of Spaniards (75%), seven in ten French adults (71%) and Italians (70%), almost two-thirds of Germans (65%) and just over half of British adults (54%) all support this idea.

Full data tables are available for the U.S. and Europe.

"How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? – The EU needs a high profile figure to effectively represent it on the international stage."

Base: All EU adults in five countries

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"As you may or may not be aware, The Lisbon Treaty creates a basic constitutional framework for the entire EU, and it is scheduled to come into effect at the beginning of 2009, after it is approved by each of the EU’s 27 member countries. The treaty anticipates that there will be a European Union president. Assuming this was to occur, which of the following potential candidates would you be most likely to vote for?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Note: * indicates less than 0.5% and "-" indicates no response

"Kosovo’s parliament has recently unanimously endorsed a historic declaration of independence from Serbia. How much do you support or oppose Kosovo’s declaration of independence?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"Some have suggested that the European Union should do more to promote stability in the Balkan region. How much would you support or oppose the following possible actions? – Providing general financial assistance to the region."

Base: All EU adults in five countries

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"Some have suggested that the European Union should do more to promote stability in the Balkan region. How much would you support or oppose the following possible actions? – Providing assistance in the form of security."

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

This FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive among a total of 6,478 adults (aged 16-64) within France (1,122), Germany (1,125), Great Britain (1,109), Spain (1,054) and the United States (1,057) and adults (aged 18-64) in Italy (1,011) between 27 February and 6 March 2008. Figures for age, sex, education, region and Internet usage were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult populations of the respective countries. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

J6769

Q19900, 1905, 1910, 1915_1, 1915_2