THE HARRIS POLL #76, December 22, 1999

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The online population, which was only nine percent of all adults four years ago, has now surged to 56% of all adults. This six hundred percent increase since late 1995 confirms that the Internet is the fastest growing technology in the history of the world. No other twentieth century technology comes close – not the telephone, the automobile, the radio, the television or the computer grew at anything like this speed.

This latest estimate comes from the Harris Poll, which has been tracking the number of people who go online, whether from home, office, school or library since 1995. All these surveys are conducted by telephone with at least 2,000 interviews each.

In the latest survey, conducted in December, the total number of computer users, also from all locations, has increased to 69% of all adults, from 63% in 1998, 61% in 1997, 54% in 1996 and 50% in 1990. While that rate of growth is impressive compared to the historical growth rate of other twentieth century technologies it is very modest compared to the rise of the Internet. In 1995 less than one person in five (18%) who used a P.C. was online. Now fully 81% of all P.C. users go online.

Initially those online were mostly young, very well educated and male. Now, as the Internet population continues to grow it looks more and more like the total adult population, with all segments of society represented. It includes equal proportions of men and women and substantial number of old people, people without a college education and people over 65 – even though all of those groups are underrepresented.

For example, 7% of the online population are African-American (compared to 12% of all adults), 35% are high school graduates (compared to 52%), and 14% have household incomes of less than $25,000 (compared to 25% of all adults).

The 56% of all adults who are online represent approximately 115 million people.

NOTES:

1. All samples of 2,000 or more adults, conducted by telephone.

2. "Use Internet" includes all adults who use Internet from home, offices, school, library or other location.

* Estimated from other sources.

(October – December 1999)

This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between December 2 to December 7, and December 9 to 12, 1999, among a nationwide cross section of 2019 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is difficult or impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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1581, 1680