Ageism May be a Bigger Barrier in Presidential Election than Racism (or Sexism)

About half of all adults say that the people they know might hesitate to vote for a woman, an African-American or a candidate over 70

ROCHESTER, N.Y. – September 24, 2008 – The results of the 2008 presidential election will make history and break precedents regardless of who wins. The winner will be the first sitting senator to be elected president in 48 years. The winner will be either the first African-American president or the oldest first-term president. And, the first woman vice-president may be elected.

Toward that end, a new Harris Poll seeks to measure the likely impact of prejudice based on the race, gender or age of the candidates. The poll suggests that racism, sexism and ageism are all potentially powerful factors that can inhibit people from voting for a black, female or older candidate. The results also suggest that ageism – specifically John McCain’s age – is potentially a more serious barrier to election than racism – specifically Barack Obama’s race.

This Harris Poll was conducted with 2,710 adults who were surveyed online between August 11 and 17, 2008 before John McCain nominated Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Key findings of the poll include:

More people (36%) say that it would be a bad thing if someone over 70 were elected president than would feel this way if an African-American (11%) or a woman (12%) were elected. More people say that it would be a good thing if a black (38%) or a woman (34%) was elected than think it would be good to elect someone over 70 (10%).
Attitudes to electing an African-American or someone over 70 are, of course, closely related to party identification. Fully 52 percent of Democrats but only 17 percent of Republicans think it would be good to elect a black president. And a similar proportion (52%) of Democrats thinks it would be bad to elect someone over 70, a view shared by only 18 percent of Republicans.
While most people say they would be neither pleased nor displeased if a black, female or a candidate over 70 were elected, the remainder are much more likely to say they would be pleased than displeased by the election of a woman (by 37% to 11%) or an African-American (by 30% to 11%). However, they are much more likely to be displeased than pleased (by 32% to 9%) if someone over 70 is elected. Most people (72%) say that the sex, age or race of the candidate should make "absolutely no difference."

Our research experience suggests that these results may underestimate the number of people who might be influenced by prejudices such as sexism, ageism, or racism because some people are reluctant to admit to their prejudices or may believe they are not prejudiced when they are. Harris Interactive therefore included a so-called projective question in which people were asked if they thought that people they knew might hesitate to vote for a candidate because of his or her race, sex or age. Far more people said yes to this question than admitted to being influenced themselves. Fully 52 percent of all adults believe that people they know would be at least somewhat hesitant to vote for someone over 70, while almost as many believe that people they know would be somewhat hesitant to vote for an African-American (48%) or a woman (45%).

So What?

These findings leave no doubt that Barack Obama’s race and John McCain’s age are potentially big factors in the 2008 presidential election, however, it is much less clear how big these factors will be. It is not so much the race or age of a candidate that matters as the extent to which a candidate looks, talks and behaves like an old person or a black candidate that makes the biggest difference. Some candidates seem to trigger more prejudice than others, and the importance of Obama’s race and McCain’s age may well change between now and Election Day, influenced by events, smear tactics or political advertising.

TABLE 1

GOOD/BAD THING IF WOMAN/BLACK/SOMEONE OVER 70 ELECTED PRESIDENT

"If someone with the following characteristics was well qualified and was elected president, do you think this would be . . . ?

Base: All adults

		Very Good	Somewhat Good	Neither Good Nor Bad	Somewhat Bad	Very Bad	Not Sure	SUMMARY
		Very Good	Somewhat Good	Neither Good Nor Bad	Somewhat Bad	Very Bad	Not Sure	Good Thing	Bad Thing
Someone who is a woman	%	21	18	44	7	5	6	38	12
Someone who is black or African- American	%	18	16	48	7	5	7	34	11
Someone over 70 years old	%	3	7	48	25	11	6	10	36

Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2
GOOD/BAD THING IF WOMAN/BLACK/SOMEONE OVER 70 ELECTED PRESIDENT –
BY GENERATION, GENDER, RACE AND PARTY

"If someone with the following characteristics was well qualified and was elected president, do you think this would be . . . ?

Base: All adults

A GOOD THING:	Total	GENERATION				GENDER
	Total	Echo Boomers (18-31)	Gen. X (32-43)	Baby Boomers (44-62)	Matures (63+)	Male	Female
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Someone who is a woman	38	37	34	39	44	34	42
Someone who is black or African American	34	38	30	34	34	34	34
Someone over 70 years old	10	8	8	11	14	11	9

A GOOD THING:	Total	RACE			PARTY I.D.
	Total	White	Black	Hispanic	Republican	Democrat	Independent
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Someone who is a woman	38	36	48	44	17	58	38
Someone who is black or African American	34	29	58	42	17	52	34
Someone over 70 years old	10	10	6	14	17	7	11

A BAD THING:	Total	GENERATION				GENDER
	Total	Echo Boomers (18-31)	Gen. X (32-43)	Baby Boomers (44-62)	Matures (63+)	Male	Female
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Someone over 70 years old	36	41	34	35	30	30	41
Someone who is a woman	12	17	11	9	11	13	11
Someone who is black or African American	11	11	10	11	15	11	12

A BAD THING:	Total	RACE			PARTY I.D.
	Total	White	Black	Hispanic	Republican	Democrat	Independent
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Someone over 70 years old	36	33	53	35	18	52	33
Someone who is a woman	12	14	6	4	22	4	12
Someone who is black or African American	11	13	3	9	17	7	11

Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3
MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR – AGE, RACE OR GENDER – FOR VOTERS TO THINK OF

"Which one of the following do you think is the most important factor for voters to think of in future presidential elections as they choose different presidential candidates – if all the candidates are equally qualified?"

Base: All adults

	Total	GENERATION				GENDER
	Total	Echo Boomers (18-31)	Gen. X (32-43)	Baby Boomers (44-62)	Matures (63+)	Male	Female
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Absolutely no difference	72	68	72	74	71	70	73
The age of the candidate, if he/she is over 70	18	17	17	17	20	18	17
The race of the candidate, if he/she is black or African American	6	8	5	6	5	7	5
The gender of the candidate, if she is a woman	5	7	6	3	4	5	4

	Total	RACE			PARTY I.D.
	Total	White	Black	Hispanic	Republican	Democrat	Independent
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Absolutely no difference	72	73	66	70	79	63	74
The age of the candidate, if he/she is over 70	18	16	24	22	9	25	18
The race of the candidate, if he/she is black or African American	6	6	8	4	7	8	4
The gender of the candidate, if she is a woman	5	5	2	4	5	5	4

Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

TABLE 4
PLEASED/DISPLEASED IF WOMAN/BLACK/PERSON OVER 70 ELECTED PRESIDENT

"Which of the following best describes how you would feel if different candidates were elected President?"

Base: All adults

		Very Pleased	Somewhat Pleased	Neither Pleased Nor Displeased	Somewhat Displeased	Very Displeased	SUMMARY
		Very Pleased	Somewhat Pleased	Neither Pleased Nor Displeased	Somewhat Displeased	Very Displeased	Pleased	Displeased
Someone who is a woman	%	19	17	52	6	5	37	11
Someone who is black or African- American	%	16	14	60	5	5	30	11
Someone over 70 years old	%	3	5	59	22	10	9	32

Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5
HOW HESITANT PEOPLE YOU KNOW WOULD BE TO VOTE FOR A WOMAN/BLACK/SOMEONE OVER 70

"How hesitant, if at all, do you think people you know would be in voting for each of the following for President?"

Base: All adults

		Considerable Hesitation	Some Hesitation	Very Little Hesitation	No Hesitation At All	SUMMARY
		Considerable Hesitation	Some Hesitation	Very Little Hesitation	No Hesitation At All	Considerable or Some Hesitation	Very Little Or No Hesitation
Someone who is over 70 years old	%	12	39	30	18	52	48
Someone who is black or African- American	%	14	34	26	26	48	52
Someone who is a woman	%	10	35	29	27	45	55

Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

TABLE 6
CONSIDERABLE/SOME HESITATION TO VOTE FOR WOMAN/BLACK/SOMEONE OVER 70 – BY GENERATION, GENDER, RACE AND PARTY

"How hesitant, if at all, do you think people you know would be in voting for each of the following for President?"

Summary of "Considerable/Some Hesitation

Base: All adults

	Total	GENERATION				GENDER
	Total	Echo Boomers (18-31)	Gen. X (32-43)	Baby Boomers (44-62)	Matures (63+)	Male	Female
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Someone over 70 years old	52	48	54	52	55	48	55
Someone who is black or African American	48	44	49	45	61	49	48
Someone who is a woman	45	49	46	41	43	46	44

	Total	RACE			PARTY I.D.
	Total	White	Black	Hispanic	Republican	Democrat	Independent
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Someone over 70 years old	52	50	67	52	36	66	51
Someone who is black or African American	48	52	34	44	54	43	49
Someone who is a woman	44	18	38	37	55	37	44

Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

Methodology

This Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between August 11 and 17, 2008 among 2,710 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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